Will Israel Strike Iran?

Newsweek ^ | Feb. 13, 2006 issue | Kevin Peraino and John Barry

[West Coast Conservative]

As scary as the idea may sound, the Israelis may not be bluffing. Their defense experts display no doubt whatsoever that Israel's Air Force can cripple Iran's nuclear program if necessary. The trick, they say, is to go after the system's weak spots. "You need to identify the bottlenecks," says a senior Israeli military source, asking not to be named for security reasons. "There are not very many. If you take them out, then you really undermine the project." Shlomo Brom, a former Israeli armed forces chief of strategic planning, says the destruction of two or three key facilities would probably suffice. He singles out the Natanz uranium-enrichment complex and the conversion plant at Esfahan as critical.

It wouldn't be as easy as it sounds. Tehran, taking obvious lessons from Israel's successful 1981 bombing of Saddam Hussein's reactor at Osirak, has done its best to shield potential targets like Natanz. "They are dispersed, underground, hardened," says the senior Israeli military source. U.S. analysts say each facility would require multiple hits before serious damage was done. Still, the Israelis—who have an undeclared nuclear arsenal of their own, and refuse international inspections or oversight—insist they have all the firepower they need: more than 100 U.S.-made BLU-109 "bunker buster" earth-penetrating bombs. "I think they could do the job," says the senior Israeli source.

Logistics is a bigger hurdle. Each separate target would require a small fleet of aircraft. Israel's F-15s and F-16s would need advance escorts of "electronic countermeasures" aircraft to jam Iran's air-defense radars, and every one of those planes would need an entourage of fighter aircraft. At short range, Tehran's newly upgraded MiG-29 interceptors are a match for just about anything in the air. "To get there and bomb the facilities, that's the easy part," says Brom.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[johnny7]

Some Iranian sites are just too far from Israel for the IAF to reach and bomb.

Israel cannot afford to only wound Iran if it strikes. If it decides to deal with Iran, it will fully commit.

[dinok]

"If (Israel) decides to deal with Iran, it will fully commit."

I have a feeling you are no longer discussing conventional warfare. If Israel crosses the line to nuclear weaponry, it would have to use multiple warheads as the Iranian program is spread out to multiple sites. Such an attack is mechanically possible, but politically suicidal for Israel.

My read on this issue is that the US will drag this out until the Europeans and others are asking us...probably begging us, to do something. Then the action will have solid backing internationally in both diplomatic and military form.

[johnny7]

...the US will drag this out until the Europeans and others are asking us...probably begging us, to do something.

Europe will balk at military action... and there is no consensus for us to go to war alone for a perceived threat to Israel.

Israel will use whatever it takes to erase the threat.

[grey_whiskers]

Re: Your posts 77 to 88.

Are you channeling Milli Vanilli? Did the needle on your record get stuck or something? ;-)

Cheers!

[grey_whiskers]

Question, how much does each S-300P cost?

Couldn't the US flood the launch sites with Predator drones -- Hobson's choice for Iran. Shoot all your (expensive) missles at cheap drones and run out of missiles, or let the Predators take you out with a Hellfire...?

Cheers!

[TheBrotherhood]

>Will Israel Strike Iran?

I doubt it will for lack of capabilities.

But why should israel strike Iraq?

[Tommyjo]

No. Israel never had F-111s. Only nation that operates them today is Australia.

[Tommyjo]

Iran doesn't have any S-300s. They still don't have any of the upgraded SA-3 or the SA-15s they they want from Russia deployed yet. The S-300 does not even feature in a threat list for the region, let alone Iran. Yes Iran has wanted them since the early 90s. They have been the bogey system. The pressure the US put on the Russians went they last wanted to sell them to Iran was heavy. The result was that the Russians didn't go ahead with the deal.

All that you read about on the web that Iran has S-300s is utter non-sense. There isn't an S-300 associated radar in Iran. Iran doesn't even employ early warning TIN SHIELDs let alone any modern radar system. Even the Chinese have snubbed them for their S-300 copy. The Chinese don't want any problems with their technology transfer arms deals and have not sold any HQ-9 copies to Iran either.