Will Israel Strike Iran?

Newsweek ^ | Feb. 13, 2006 issue | Kevin Peraino and John Barry

[West Coast Conservative]

As scary as the idea may sound, the Israelis may not be bluffing. Their defense experts display no doubt whatsoever that Israel's Air Force can cripple Iran's nuclear program if necessary. The trick, they say, is to go after the system's weak spots. "You need to identify the bottlenecks," says a senior Israeli military source, asking not to be named for security reasons. "There are not very many. If you take them out, then you really undermine the project." Shlomo Brom, a former Israeli armed forces chief of strategic planning, says the destruction of two or three key facilities would probably suffice. He singles out the Natanz uranium-enrichment complex and the conversion plant at Esfahan as critical.

It wouldn't be as easy as it sounds. Tehran, taking obvious lessons from Israel's successful 1981 bombing of Saddam Hussein's reactor at Osirak, has done its best to shield potential targets like Natanz. "They are dispersed, underground, hardened," says the senior Israeli military source. U.S. analysts say each facility would require multiple hits before serious damage was done. Still, the Israelis—who have an undeclared nuclear arsenal of their own, and refuse international inspections or oversight—insist they have all the firepower they need: more than 100 U.S.-made BLU-109 "bunker buster" earth-penetrating bombs. "I think they could do the job," says the senior Israeli source.

Logistics is a bigger hurdle. Each separate target would require a small fleet of aircraft. Israel's F-15s and F-16s would need advance escorts of "electronic countermeasures" aircraft to jam Iran's air-defense radars, and every one of those planes would need an entourage of fighter aircraft. At short range, Tehran's newly upgraded MiG-29 interceptors are a match for just about anything in the air. "To get there and bomb the facilities, that's the easy part," says Brom.

[Lunatic Fringe]

Israel doesn't have the power to do it. They need to hit hundreds of reinforced targets.

[Northern Alliance]

Its pathetic for us and the Europeans to wait for a little country like Israel to do the job we should all do together.

Well said. Also, Israel should not have to bear the brunt of the condemnation they will inevitably face because of their 'aggression' and the cost in civilian casualties or even a war over the Hormuz straits.

[gregwest]

Like Syria learned, when Israel went into Lebanon to establish their security zone, the Israeli pilots had a 14:1 kill ratio against the Russian MiGs or something like that.

[festus]

Better yet, make it a NATO operation.



Heck send in the Danes. Post s few cartoons and watch em self destruct.

[cpdiii]

No matter how good the pilot is, in this case the range of his or aircraft is the main factor. Some Iranian sites are just too far from Israel for the IAF to reach and bomb.

Perhaps a few US Air Force KC-10 Aircraft might "happen" to be in the area with a little excess Jet A that they need to get rid of after topping off our B2 Bombers. :)

[cpdiii]

A shaped charge depends on the shaped explosive turning a metal (normally copper) into a hyper velocity stream of plasma. I can not see this working on a fission or fusion bomb. Its power is derived from gamma rays and hard xrays that heat up the surrounding enviroment. Do we have a physicist around here that can comment?

[cpdiii]

B17, B25, Lancaster's and such went off over Germany.

The weather boys during WWII would forecast "High Level Aluminum Overcast over Germany."

[ozoneliar]

The Migs may be a match but I really doubt the Iranian pilots are a match for the Israeli pilots.

Supposedly they have the best trained Air Force in the world.

[section9]

Here's what is not being said.

The Israelis will kick in the door, and the 509th Composite Group will come roaring in.

The IDF is NOT doing this show alone. No freakin' way.

The risk of substantial portions of the Iranian Manhattan Project being left intact are too great. Better to have the Israelis attract the attention of the Iranians while the heavy lifting is done by the 509th's B-2's.

Believe me, between the two powers, there is no way their bomb program won't be sent back by at least a decade.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Thunder90]

MiG 29 vs F-22 Turkey shoot. F-22 wins.

[Thunder90]

When the Israelis go in, we (The US/Britian) should hit Iran with everything conventional that we have.

[Northern Alliance]

The Israelis will kick in the door, and the 509th Composite Group will come roaring in.

I am going to predict you are 100% wrong, and that it'll either be the Israelis or the USA, not both, because the USA will not want to be seen as a partner with Israel in a military action against a Muslim country. Correctly, IMO, as they cannot afford that.

I would love to be wrong, but I don't see it happening any other way. A NATO strike would be the best option of course, but it ain't going to happen.

[Mind-numbed Robot]

Maybe Oprah can figure it out.

Yep. Instead of referring Iran to the UN we should turn the problem over to Oprah and Dr. Phil.

[GSlob]

It can work even without any metal cladding - by convergence of explosive shock waves in gaseous medium. With cladding, which is carried by these waves, it works better, IIRC. Well, one could provide heavy cladding.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

Painting our aircraft with Israeli markings would be pointless. Our initial attacks (with B-2s) would be at night. Also, I don't think Israel has Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Further, we would prefer them knowing that the USA was taking out their nuke facilities. They will hit Israel in any event. Question: would they hit Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE?

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Will Israel strike Iran? Probably. Israel has both the means and the will. They also have the desire to survive. The "president" of Iran has stated his intention to "wipe Israel off the face of the earth."

Israel would ignore this clear warning at its peril.

Also, Israel has demonstrated in the past that It favors preemptive strikes. Actually, a first strike is Israel's only chance to survive.