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Will Israel Strike Iran?
Newsweek ^ | Feb. 13, 2006 issue | Kevin Peraino and John Barry

Posted on 02/05/2006 4:18:31 PM PST by West Coast Conservative

As scary as the idea may sound, the Israelis may not be bluffing. Their defense experts display no doubt whatsoever that Israel's Air Force can cripple Iran's nuclear program if necessary. The trick, they say, is to go after the system's weak spots. "You need to identify the bottlenecks," says a senior Israeli military source, asking not to be named for security reasons. "There are not very many. If you take them out, then you really undermine the project." Shlomo Brom, a former Israeli armed forces chief of strategic planning, says the destruction of two or three key facilities would probably suffice. He singles out the Natanz uranium-enrichment complex and the conversion plant at Esfahan as critical.

It wouldn't be as easy as it sounds. Tehran, taking obvious lessons from Israel's successful 1981 bombing of Saddam Hussein's reactor at Osirak, has done its best to shield potential targets like Natanz. "They are dispersed, underground, hardened," says the senior Israeli military source. U.S. analysts say each facility would require multiple hits before serious damage was done. Still, the Israelis—who have an undeclared nuclear arsenal of their own, and refuse international inspections or oversight—insist they have all the firepower they need: more than 100 U.S.-made BLU-109 "bunker buster" earth-penetrating bombs. "I think they could do the job," says the senior Israeli source.

Logistics is a bigger hurdle. Each separate target would require a small fleet of aircraft. Israel's F-15s and F-16s would need advance escorts of "electronic countermeasures" aircraft to jam Iran's air-defense radars, and every one of those planes would need an entourage of fighter aircraft. At short range, Tehran's newly upgraded MiG-29 interceptors are a match for just about anything in the air. "To get there and bomb the facilities, that's the easy part," says Brom.

(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: axisofevil; commandcontrol; communications; iaf; idf; iran; iranstrikes; nuclearweapons; olmert
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To: TheSpottedOwl
The US trained Iranian pilots back in the '70's. Pathetic isn't it?

The Shah and his air force were our friends. Then Carter cut them off and the Islamists took over; any of his air force officers that didn't get out of Iran were killed. When the revolution took place, most of the Iranian Air Force personnel over here for language and technical training requested asylum in the USA rather than return home to certain death.
41 posted on 02/05/2006 5:30:07 PM PST by ROLF of the HILL COUNTRY (%28 Terrorism is a symptom, ISLAM IS THE DISEASE!%29)
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To: TheRedSoxWinThePennant
"Yes and sooner rather than later. The Mig 29 while an impressive aircraft. Is no match for an israeli pilot"
Israeli just received the latest F-16I that has enough range to strike Iran... I wouldn't bet against it...click on the picture to read about Israel latest arsenal from Israel-weapon.com


42 posted on 02/05/2006 5:30:08 PM PST by Toidylop
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To: capitalist229
What would an Israeli strike do to the price of crude oil if the Iranians react by stopping all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ?

The U.S. Navy can keep the Straits of Hormuz open. In 1988 we reflagged Kuwaiti tankers because of the Iranian Silkworm missile threat. This is no different.

43 posted on 02/05/2006 5:35:27 PM PST by gcraig
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To: grey_whiskers

The pilots would be in their early 50's at the least. I'm sure they taught younger pilots the skills, and also kept up with the latest technology just like any other teacher, in any other discipline. These guys weren't dummies screaming "Allahu Fubar".


44 posted on 02/05/2006 5:38:15 PM PST by TheSpottedOwl (Support the fence....grow a Victory Garden!)
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To: grey_whiskers

I think the only training the Iranian pilots need is how to deploy the ejection seat.


45 posted on 02/05/2006 5:44:52 PM PST by rfreedom4u (Native Texan)
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To: ExcursionGuy84

Depends on how the IAF would do the whole show. They have managed air space with AWACs in the past. Would they be able to commit AWACs for support? What about fighter escort?

My knowledge of how they could achieve success is lacking, but they will need our help with forward staging or refueling. Most likely both. FWIW, my money is on an Israeli pilot, providing he/she is not concentrating on air to mud.


46 posted on 02/05/2006 5:45:37 PM PST by jblair
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To: dinok

Aerial refueling is a capability Israel has.


47 posted on 02/05/2006 5:45:51 PM PST by rfreedom4u (Native Texan)
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To: West Coast Conservative

If they do strike, it will be with some REALLY big bombs, maybe nuclear. Anything less won't work.


48 posted on 02/05/2006 5:46:27 PM PST by Brilliant
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To: Toidylop

Thats what I thought I was pretty sure israel had the capability to strike deep inside Iran. I dont know What else israel flies other than f-15 and 16's. Do they have any long range bombers. I could have sworn they at least used to have some f-111's


49 posted on 02/05/2006 5:46:28 PM PST by TheRedSoxWinThePennant
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To: elcid1970

Exactly how does a non-nuke EMP device work?

Did Bubba get to screwing around with the CR generator from an old TV set, a homemade collimator, and an R/C pulse circuit triggered by an SCR?

I better clam up now.


50 posted on 02/05/2006 6:00:51 PM PST by 308MBR (The only time four doors look cool are when they are on two cars.)
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To: 308MBR
Exactly how does a non-nuke EMP device work?

We have two kinds here on Free Republic.

1. The ZOT.

2. Beebers set on stune.

Cheers!

51 posted on 02/05/2006 6:08:20 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Babsig

"Count Denmark and Norway in. Actually, After seeing this headline in Newsweek tells me the MSM is itching for another war to cover."

Itching until the USA gets involved, then the drumbeat of defeat at any cost will begin.


52 posted on 02/05/2006 6:11:14 PM PST by armydawg1 (" America must win this war..." PVT Martin Treptow, KIA, WW1)
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To: TheRedSoxWinThePennant
No, they don't have long range bommbers. However, F-16I is more than enough for precision tactical strike. The loitering time is not critical that requires F-111 type aircraft or long range bomber. I believe the targets will be pre-determined, F-16I will come in and strike effectively then get the h*ll out. Just in case, we just happen to have a KC-135 Stratotanker in the area to lend a hand to a friend... :)
53 posted on 02/05/2006 6:16:11 PM PST by Toidylop
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To: 308MBR
Why not buy one and find out? Or just buy the plans?
54 posted on 02/05/2006 6:26:36 PM PST by oblomov (Join the FR Folding@Home Team (#36120) keyword: folding@home)
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To: ROLF of the HILL COUNTRY

Yes, I remember whose side they used to be on until we sold the Shah out to the Ayatollahs. I'm sure that the US trained pilots who couldn't get out, were utilized as training officers, or faced execution.

Effn' Jimmuh...


55 posted on 02/05/2006 6:28:32 PM PST by TheSpottedOwl (Support the fence....grow a Victory Garden!)
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To: West Coast Conservative
These facilities should be taken out with low-yield nukes, from under the sea, with no claim of responsibility.

Let the thing speak for itself.

56 posted on 02/05/2006 6:29:57 PM PST by Jim Noble (And you know what I'm talkin' 'bout)
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To: grey_whiskers

LOL

I thought the ZOT was just a big power surge, due to the lightening frequently depicted.


57 posted on 02/05/2006 6:29:57 PM PST by 308MBR (The only time four doors look cool are when they are on two cars.)
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To: West Coast Conservative
And another way for Israel to cripple the nuclear plans of Iran is similar to the way they stopped the long range artillery plans of Iraq. "Eliminating" the brains behind the programs. Israel's Mossad has a pretty good track record of this sort of thing, including (probalbly) Gerald Bull. Of course, if successful, we won't hear a thing about it.

Mark

58 posted on 02/05/2006 6:45:50 PM PST by MarkL (When Kaylee says "No power in the `verse can stop me," it's cute. When River says it, it's scary!)
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To: lawnguy

You can bet every word released is planned (for isreals bennifit)


59 posted on 02/05/2006 6:51:36 PM PST by Walkingfeather
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To: MarkL

My bet is that isreal has already contacted these scientist with an offer they can not refuse. Isreal has a history of hunting down their enemies and not leaving enough to spread on toast.

Also Iran would have needed alot of outside assistance to build these facilities...my bet would be Isreal already has sabotaged these places and are just waiting to make them go boom.

I am sure we are going to see isreal pull out a trick NO ONE is expecting.


60 posted on 02/05/2006 6:58:55 PM PST by Walkingfeather
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