Posted on 01/28/2006 1:29:23 PM PST by Termite_Commander
YEARS ago when I first started studying the avian influenza virus H5N1, it seemed highly unlikely that it would ever develop into pandemic status. I believed it might eventually trigger a conventional bout of flu, but certainly nothing to the degree of its H1N1 ancestor, the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 50 to 100 million people.
I have followed this virus in its inexorable march towards a pandemic, seen how it kept surprising the experts by picking up more and more human-infectious traits, until now there is virtually no doubt that there will be a worldwide avian flu pandemic and that H5N1 will be responsible for it.
We have all heard the projections from avian influenza experts like Dr Michael Osterholm that in a single flu season as many as 360 million people could die. That figure is unimaginable. It's the total number of dead from the Boxing Day Tsunami every two hours, or a fully loaded 747 crashing every 13 seconds, around the clock for months on end. Three million dead in the UK alone or the equivalent of six Edinburghs.
The global integrated economy cannot survive a pandemic of this magnitude. Absenteeism rates of upwards of 75 per cent caused by illness and panic would cripple food distribution, utility access and virtually all other commerce. The bleak vision of surviving on canned food and bottled water in cold, dark homes, fearful of stepping outdoors for months on end, could happen right here in Scotland and around the world.
Do not make the error of assuming this cannot happen here. Migratory birds from Western China brought H5N1 to Turkey in early October where it lay undetected until people started dying a couple of weeks ago. Those migratory patterns continue into North Africa and Western Europe. When will H5N1 arrive in Scotland? Judging by the Turkish model, it may already be here. Let's not even consider what can happen when an infected individual arrives at Edinburgh Airport.
The 1918 pandemic started in an Army barracks in Kansas. Within one week the virus was present in all 48 contiguous United States in an era where the only modes of transport were trains and horses. The spread of this virus in the jet age is unimaginable. There likely would not be a corner of the Earth where this modern plague would not be present within weeks, maybe days.
The virus needs to pick up another trait or two to become as easily transmitted between humans as a common cold. That could happen at any time or it may already have begun.
Developing a vaccine against H5N1 is like targeting a clay pigeon. You have to shoot ahead of the target to allow the bullet and clay to intersect. Unfortunately H5N1 is a pigeon that does random, sudden 90 degree turns. It is the ultimate moving target. The time to develop and manufacture a global vaccine is six to eight months. By that time, the avian flu virus will likely have mutated into a form that is immune to the vaccine.
Current flu vaccines have no effect on H5N1, and although it is recommended that everyone be vaccinated, we should be clear in the knowledge that should a pandemic start, there is no protection from current vaccines or certainly from antiviral drugs. The antivirals of choice right now are Roche's Tamiflu and Glaxo's Relenza. The UK has ordered more than £200 million of Tamiflu, believing that it could help fend off the pandemic. Unfortunately, Tamiflu is fairly useless as an avian flu pandemic fighter.
In a recent Asian study Tamiflu was proven as ineffective as sugar pills against some H5N1 strains. The best use for these drugs is as a preventative, taking at least two doses per day from the moment the first virus arrives in your area and throughout all the months of the flu wave.
To provide everyone in the world with this albeit minor preventative measure would require, in a conservative calculation, 650 billion pills or the equivalent to the total weight of the Queen Elizabeth II fully loaded with passengers and cargo just in pure Tamiflu! All we have to do is write a cheque to Roche for one trillion pounds. And it still wouldn't stop the pandemic.
Thorough hygiene and other common-sense precautions are the only ways to blunt the impact of this pandemic. Raw poultry must be considered as a biohazard. Surfaces and clothing must be disinfected with bleach. It's time to rediscover the "disinfect everything" policy of the NHS matrons of the 1950s.
H5N1 could surprise us all and evolve into a squirrel or koala virus, sparing humanity. However, the chances of that occurring are next to zero. The world is fully unprepared. The onus must shift from wasting billions on "magic bullet" drugs that don't work to preparation and survivability.
Why assume the virus will be deadly once it changes into another virus? It’s a different virus if it can affect us. A different virus has a different rate of lethality. Why assume a 5% death rate for something they can’t even model? Why not a death rate similar to the common flue? If you’re going to go make that assumption, you might as assume mutations from every other viruses that’s deadly to other animal will kill us.
I’ve seen FR go through 2-3 pandemic panics, and they’re always promoted by a small group who wants to raise awareness. They always mention 1918 as if advances in hygiene, medical understanding, medical care and communications have little effect on isolating a new bug. I’m sure after the bird flue plays out, there’ll be another “killer flue” for some to take it upon themselves to spread awareness of and to worry about.
FYI. I think I got you all.
Did you get the article about elderberries and the possibility (or likelihood, according to the article) that they may help even with avian flu?
Nice apocalyptic writing. People really enjoy the good scare that comes with any consideration of the end of the world - asteroid impact, nuclear war, the Second Coming, superflu. However, disease tends toward becoming less and less virulent over time. It's true that catching a disease from another species can be deadly - I once contracted brucellosis after caribou hunting, a disease adapted to hoofed animals, and it almost killed me. But it didn't - my body beat it back before I needed hospitalization. Bird flu contracted by humans is deadly. A human flu derived from bird flu would be far less deadly. This doesn't mean it would nice to experience, either, but I doubt it would lead to the collapse of civilization. One more comment: in Barbara Tuchman's book about the 14th century ("A Distant Mirror"), the Black Death is one of the elements that led to the creation of Western Civilization. I don't want to die from the flu, nor my family, neighbors, friends, or townspeople, but humanity would survive.
I did. I don't know what to make of it. I know if Bird Flu becomes widespread we'll be doing everything we can to protect ourselves.
For the last time, bird flew, or bird has flown!
Not so, I'm presently prepared for:
* A category five hurricane. And, any looters.
* A war with Iran that could cut our oil/gas supplies.(maybe for months) And, any domestic terrorist activity associated with the war.
* A flu pandemic that could last for 6 months to two years. And, any domestic violence that may be associated.
* A small 'city-busting' asteroid impact. And, a subsequent possible 1-2 year 'cosmic-winter'.
I agree with you - I was referring to the writer of the article, who appeared to relish the thought of impending chaos, and I'm really, really tired of hearing about how awful things will be in the near future from the threat of (fill in the blank). I prefer faith and hope in my worldview. I grew up in the 60s, where I was fed a daily diet of imminent collapse from nukes, overpopulation, pollution, science run amok, computers taking over the world... in the 70s I was told that the world would run out resources, there would be global famines, an ice age was coming, Nixon was going to be the next Hitler... or was that Reagan as the next Hitler... or George Bush, yeah, he was a CIA guy... anyway, you get the idea.
I would prefer not to see an epidemic of anything, of course. I can't stop one, either. Relishing gory details feels like a waste of time to me, that's all.
The Great Influenza by Barry. After I read it I read the same author's book Rising Tide about the Mississippi flood of 1927. Both were superb. I am into disastor reading ever since the storm!!
Redpoll, I enjoy a good scare, so long as it's fiction.
Unfortunately, the H5N1 is a valid worry. Keep in mind that influenza viruses are especially good mutaters. And, once its gene sequence changes to that which makes for human-to-human infection, we won't have much time to react.
The author's point that virus hosts (that is, infected humans) could be unknowingly jetted around the world is key to the critical nature of the public health threat.
Another poster mentioned case fatality rate, and that is what worries so many experts.
.
...people soup.
(Such a serious topic, it needed a bit of humor.)
Should we avoid people who died from the bird flu?
There were cases reported in Basra last week.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1562819/posts
"The 20% fatalities . . . will it be the elderly and infirm or what are the "risk factors" likely to be?"
Ben, I'm going to have to let TC answer your precise question. What's clear is that "bird flu" has killed many young, and not so young, but healthy people who have contracted it. Like the other poster says about her grandfather, in the 1918 epidemic, people were in perfectly good health in the morning and dead by nightfall. So these virulent viruses can really strike a person down.
Interestingly, it seems to be affecting younger people.
In Turkey (where I got that 20% figure from), only 2 people out of the 20 cases there were older than 18.
Some are saying it's because the kids are more likely to be playing in the chicken coops, or interacting with the chickens, or they're less sanitary.
Others say it might favor them for some reason or another. We really wouldn't know unless a pandemic actually happened.
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