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"Because there would not be a shift from a virus that kills 20% or so of people who get it, to a virus that kills nobody. It becoming a squirrel virus would be more likely."

Why assume the virus will be deadly once it changes into another virus? It’s a different virus if it can affect us. A different virus has a different rate of lethality. Why assume a 5% death rate for something they can’t even model? Why not a death rate similar to the common flue? If you’re going to go make that assumption, you might as assume mutations from every other viruses that’s deadly to other animal will kill us.

I’ve seen FR go through 2-3 pandemic panics, and they’re always promoted by a small group who wants to raise awareness. They always mention 1918 as if advances in hygiene, medical understanding, medical care and communications have little effect on isolating a new bug. I’m sure after the bird flue plays out, there’ll be another “killer flue” for some to take it upon themselves to spread awareness of and to worry about.

Why assume the virus will be deadly once it changes into another virus? It’s a different virus if it can affect us.

If a virus shuffles around some of its protein structure, it doesn't technically make it a different virus. It's a mutated virus. It would still be (A)H5N1, only with a couple different genes.

A different virus has a different rate of lethality.

Not necessarily, but I see your point. It depends on what part of the virus actually mutates.

Why assume a 5% death rate for something they can’t even model?

Er, that 5% number was not scientific in any way. I just pulled a number out of my head and stuck it in there to make a point. I don't know of any models that have a 5% CFR. Sorry for the confusion.

Why not a death rate similar to the common flue?Because the common flu's death rate is extremely small, and this virus's death rate is extremely high. It would be virtually impossible for H5N1, the deadliest influenza strain ever seen, to mutate into a highly benign strain.

If you’re going to go make that assumption, you might as assume mutations from every other viruses that’s deadly to other animal will kill us.

I'm sorry. I don't quite understand what you're saying. We've looked at the genome of the H1N1 virus, found 10 critical amino acid mutations, and now we're watching for those mutations to occur on H5N1. It's not the best way to go about things, because H5N1 and H1N1 are fundamentally different, but it's the best we can do at the moment.

I’ve seen FR go through 2-3 pandemic panics, and they’re always promoted by a small group who wants to raise awareness. They always mention 1918 as if advances in hygiene, medical understanding, medical care and communications have little effect on isolating a new bug. I’m sure after the bird flue plays out, there’ll be another “killer flue” for some to take it upon themselves to spread awareness of and to worry about.

If we're all a bunch of panic-mongering fools, and the warnings are utter nonsense, why do you trouble yourself coming in to shoot them all down? Since we're kooks, don't waste your time on us.