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Nice apocalyptic writing. People really enjoy the good scare that comes with any consideration of the end of the world - asteroid impact, nuclear war, the Second Coming, superflu. However, disease tends toward becoming less and less virulent over time. It's true that catching a disease from another species can be deadly - I once contracted brucellosis after caribou hunting, a disease adapted to hoofed animals, and it almost killed me. But it didn't - my body beat it back before I needed hospitalization. Bird flu contracted by humans is deadly. A human flu derived from bird flu would be far less deadly. This doesn't mean it would nice to experience, either, but I doubt it would lead to the collapse of civilization. One more comment: in Barbara Tuchman's book about the 14th century ("A Distant Mirror"), the Black Death is one of the elements that led to the creation of Western Civilization. I don't want to die from the flu, nor my family, neighbors, friends, or townspeople, but humanity would survive.

Well Redpoll, I don't think anybody's quite talking about the "collapse of civilization". Although there was some apocalyptic talk coming out of the World Economic Forum (in fact, they even said it could be a 21st century "Black Death"), I think even their "Worse-Case scenario" stopped short of forecasting the end of the world.

As I'm sure you'll agree, a pandemic could certainly screw up some main elements to civilization for a bit (like business, travel, public services, etc.), but after the virus began winding down, they would recover, as usual.

"A human flu derived from bird flu would be far less deadly."

In all likelihood, you're right. It's important to note, however, that both the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, which were both very mild, were recombinants that popped up after mixing in pigs. With the H1N1 and H5N1 strain, such mixing is not necessary. The virus in 1918 went straight from bird to human, without the mixing vessel. This means the virus doesn't need to lose any of its deadliness in a recombination process.

People really enjoy the good scare that comes with any consideration of the end of the world - asteroid impact, nuclear war, the Second Coming, superflu. However, disease tends toward becoming less and less virulent over time.

Redpoll, I enjoy a good scare, so long as it's fiction.

Unfortunately, the H5N1 is a valid worry. Keep in mind that influenza viruses are especially good mutaters. And, once its gene sequence changes to that which makes for human-to-human infection, we won't have much time to react.

The author's point that virus hosts (that is, infected humans) could be unknowingly jetted around the world is key to the critical nature of the public health threat.

Another poster mentioned case fatality rate, and that is what worries so many experts.