Posted on 01/27/2006 5:23:10 PM PST by LouAvul
DAVOS, Switzerland (FORTUNE) - Be afraid. Be very afraid.
That's the message from two of the world's most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.
The other, billionaire investor George Soros, wouldn't make any specific predictions about prices. But as a legendary commodities player, it's worth paying heed to the words of the man who once took on the Bank of England -- and won. "I'm very worried about the supply-demand balance, which is very tight," Soros says.
"U.S. power and influence has declined precipitously because of Iraq and the war on terror and that creates an incentive for anyone who wants to make trouble to go ahead and make it." As an example, Soros pointed to the regime in Iran, which is heading towards a confrontation with the West over its nuclear power program and doesn't show any signs of compromising. "Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided," he says.
Another emboldened troublemaker is Russian president Vladimir Putin, Soros said, citing Putin's recent decision to briefly shut the supply of natural gas to Ukraine. The only bit of optimism Soros could offer was that the next 12 months would be most dangerous in terms of any price shocks, because beginning in 2007 he predicts new oil supplies will come online.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
I've done #2 and #10.
Not $250, not $300, not $275, but $262. How about $262.73?
Good one!
The worry of what is to come, takes way to much time.
I guess I am really lazy, it just takes to much energy.
Economies would collapse, but demand would not drop.
Do you think China is going to be a chump and decide to stop industrialing because the price of oil goes up?
Do you think the rest of the world is going to starve while the US consumes 25% of the world's oil with 5% of the population?
They will go to war over it. And this country had better be prepared for it.
Do you think the Chinese are going to sit on their hands during that?
Just as important as preventing Iran from going nuclear would be the securing of the oil there so that China cannot get it. Deny our enemies fuel and they cannot do anything.
No, but it is good reason to do so BEFORE China gains power projection capability.
There are huge amounts of US Oil Shale and Canadian tar sands. Huge amounts. They cost more to refine because you have to cook the oil out of them. That's the reason they're basically untouched so far.
Why not use nuclear reactor heat to cook them instead of hydrcarbon fuels?
It's not as easy as flicking a light switch. New technologies take years, even decades to implement, and you still need oil to make the solar cells or wind turbines or whatever.
Personally, I wish foriegn oil supplies would dry up tomorrow. We would be fine
You have no idea what you are talking about.
You will have to build more drilling rigs first, everything we got is already working.
As Mulder said, it takes a lot of energy to dig up the shale, crush it, heat it and get the oil out. When you hear estimates like "$80 / barrel" for shale oil, keep in mind those are usually calculated using $40 / barrel mideast oil to build and fuel equipment and extract the shale oil. If mideast oil is $262, shale oil could cost $200 / barrel or $400 / barrel, or maybe only $100 / barrel.
Maybe at $262 the Senate will see fit to drill ANWR...
Nuclear reactor heat, which is usually wasted in condensors could be used to heat the shale. Or a dedicated heat exchanger just for shale oil extraction. Of course it would require a nuclear reactor but it would be much "cheaper" in terms of energy to get the oil from the shale.
What are you gonna drill with, there are no rigs available.
LOL! I like that one.
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