Posted on 01/27/2006 2:57:27 PM PST by cgk
By Dustin Hawkins
Jan 27, 2006
With Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist not seeking re-election in 2006 due to a term-limit promise and a possible White House run, the Democratic Party is placing all hopes of snagging Tennessee’s open seat on the shoulders of U.S. Representative Harold Ford Jr. But Republicans, who have held both U.S. Senate seats since 1994, have other plans for this red-leaning state that has voted for George W. Bush twice. Ford hopes to be the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since Al Gore, a drought that has lasted 16 years.
Harold Ford Jr. was first elected to the House in 1996 when his father, Harold Ford Sr., retired and subsequently left the seat to his 26-year-old son, an easy favorite to lay claim on the heavily Democratic congressional district and to carry on the Ford tradition. He would go on to win re-election to his seat four times without much fanfare. Viewed as a rising-star in the party, Ford was tapped to be the keynote speaker at the 2000 Democratic National Convention, which had nominated fellow Tennessean Al Gore. Gore was later in the uncommon position of losing his home state in a presidential election.
Standing in between Ford and a Senate seat are two main roadblocks. The first problem for Ford is that he is running in a Republican-leaning state while being a not-so-moderate Democrat, his affiliation with various moderate Democratic caucuses such as the Blue Dog Democrats notwithstanding. He is pro-choice, though supported the partial-birth abortion ban, and opposed the 2001 Bush tax cuts. He gets high ratings from liberal interest groups, such as Planned Parenthood and Americans for Democratic Action, while garnering low ratings from Tennessee-friendly conservative groups such as the Christian Coalition, the National Rifle Association, and various tax-watch organizations.
Yet Ford’s biggest problems may come not from his politics but from his family, a Memphis-based political machine that has been unable to stay out of the news recently. Trouble started when Ford’s uncle, Tennessee state Senator John Ford, was nabbed in an FBI sting operation and consequently indicted on accepting bribes in excess of $50,000. He resigned from the seat he had held for 31 years. His sister Ophelia subsequently ran for the open seat in a special election, winning by just 13 votes. But voting irregularities, including ballots cast by felons, the deceased, and out-of-district residents have caused the state senate to consider voiding the close election. Currently, a judge has issued a temporary restraining order to prevent the election results from being tossed out.
Despite aiming to distance himself from his family’s ongoing and heavily publicized political woes, it’s hard to imagine that ‘Ford Fatigue’ won’t set in and have a negative effect on Ford’s campaign for the U.S. Senate.
Meanwhile, three Republicans are currently vying for the nomination on their side of the aisle. The frontrunner for the GOP nod, former congressman Ed Bryant, has already received the endorsements of at least a dozen state representatives as well as one from Tennessee Right To Life. A second former congressman, Van Hilleary, is competing for the same conservative base that Bryant is after, while a third candidate, Bob Corker, is looking to pick up the scraps.
Grassroots conservatives in the state have attempted to persuade Hilleary to drop out of the Senate contest and to instead challenge incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen. This would satisfy two goals for the 2006 election cycle. First, it would prevent a conservative face-off in the Senate primary, leaving Bryant to focus on a campaign against Ford while avoiding the possibility of splitting the conservative vote. A split of the conservative base allows for the possibility that former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, a moderate who would likely not energize a large segment of the GOP base, would have a shot at the nomination.
Second, if Hilleary switched to the gubernatorial contest, thus setting up a rematch of the 2002 race that he narrowly lost, a current void would be filled and the Republicans would have strong conservatives running in both major statewide races. Currently, no competitive candidates have entered the race, though Nashville-based radio show host Steve Gill has kicked around the idea of jumping in. It appears that Gill’s major roadblock is that he would be forced to give up his radio show if he so much as formed an exploratory committee to see how he might fare against Governor Bredesen.
Most polling data suggests that Tennessee’s landscape won’t be changing much after the 2006 elections. Despite having high name recognition in the state, Harold Ford Jr. still trails both Republican frontrunners Bryant and Hilleary in recent polling data. Likewise, the governor’s mansion is looking to stay in Democratic control as no opponent has yet to take the challenge of facing Bredesen. For now, Tennessee looks to be a safe bet for all incumbent parties involved.
Dustin Hawkins is a Townhall.com political reporter.
I'll be surprised if Frist really does give his Senate seat up, especially since he doesn't have a prayer of winning the GOP nomination.
There must be some small town that's in need of a village idiot.
Why do you think that when there is no clear front-runner at this point?
I think he would make a great candidate, especially among women, since he is a doctor.
Another interesting question is who will replace Frist as Majority Leader.
Perhaps we could get Ann Coulter to run for the Senate.
Mitch McConnell
Good! He REALLY needs to go, that wuss!
Frist is too stiff.
Yeah, he did a really great job for Terri.
Granted, she was trying to be funny I guess, but she's a lose cannon and could never win an election. It's too bad because she has one of the most brilliant conservative minds in the country. I remarked about it a couple of times on the above thread. See my post #45.
Wha huh? What difference would that make? To a woman?
This will be a win-win for us. We'll keep the seat and get rid of lil harrie. Maybe he can become a regular on Fox and Friends, they seem to love him.
Just let the POS leave the Senate and replace him with any pubbie with some useable* testicles [*not in the Hildabeast's lockbox].
See now that just makes me suspicious unless we're talking about Dr. Coburn.
Bryant is my choice, as a Republican. I'm not real enthused by Van Hilleary, either for Senate (He'd lose to Ford, IMHO) or as a candidate for Governor. I think Bredesen will get 60% of the REPUBLICAN vote in TN. He's the best anti-tax person we've had for years. The last Republican governor was trying to start an income tax and Bredesen has been helping to fight that (for cynical reasons) since he's been in office. I don't think Van Hilleary has a chance in either race.
If Ford had been born 3 months earlier, he'd have been Kerry's VP pick in 2004..
Ease up. I knew Bill Frist and his wife during his residency in Boston. Two nicer people you could never find. I think he's been in over his head as the majority leader but, let's face it, he hasn't had a lot of support from the Repub Senators. I wish he would reconsider and run for the Senate again. He has been a consistent vote for the right and would continue to be a rational conservative voice. But maybe the old axiom is correct, 'nice guys finish last', in politics anyway.
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