Posted on 01/25/2006 6:50:33 PM PST by UCAL
Guest contributor Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, sees good things for House Democrats in the months ahead.
With a little over nine months to go until Election Day, Democrats are headed for gains in the United States House of Representatives. The only question is exactly how big those gains will be.
Democrats need a net gain of fifteen seats to get to the magic number of 218 seats and control of the chamber. That would make Representative Nancy Pelosi Speaker, install Democrats as chairs of House committees, and fundamentally change the political environment on Capitol Hill and nationally for President George W. Bush's final two years.
I recently raised my projections of likely Democratic gains to five to eight seats based on the continued deepening of the Abramoff scandal and continued voter sentiment for change. While it is still difficult to "count" eight certain Democratic House takeovers, the combination of macropolitical factors and credible Democratic opportunities add up to likely Democratic gains in the mid-single digits.
But, like the Federal Reserve, which often signals future interest rate shifts by noting that it has a "bias" to higher or lower rates, I like to indicate whether my projected range is likely to move one way or the other. And my current view is that projections of Democratic gains are more likely to grow than to shrink.
While Republicans could benefit from improved news from Iraq, perceived progress in the war on terror, an ethics/reform agenda, or future circumstances that no one can now anticipate, I think it far more likely that the political landscape, which currently tilts to the Democrats, could tilt even more toward Democratic House candidates later this year.
While a 15-seat Democratic gain remains difficult, I no longer think it impossible. Yes, Republicans do have a structural advantage in the House, and Democrats don't have as many top tier challengers at DCCC chairman Rahm Emanuel would have you believe he does. But the electorate's mood allows for Democratic prospects to improve further over the next nine months. Stay tuned.
-- Stuart Rothenberg is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report and a columnist for Roll Call.
Wishful thinking.
He cites the Abramoff scandal? First of all, Dems are dirty, too-no matter how hard they sping. Secondly, no one cares! They are so silly--dragging out an attempted scandal every couple of weeks. Scandal fatigue, really!
uhhhh...that's spin, not sping (where did that come from?) Sorry!
If a good Democratic year starts out with the GOP President selecting and confirming a 55 year old conservative to the Supreme Court for the next 25 to 30 years after getting a 50 year old conservative confirmed to Chief Justice for the next 25 to 30 years, that sounds like a good start to me.
All the libs have are FAKE NEWS and FAKE POLLS to justify their FAKE NEWS.
Bingo!
~shudder!
CNN "INSIDE POLITICS" Transcript: Clueless Stu Rothenberg SLAMS Bloggers
CNN "Inside Politics" ^ | February 18, 2005
Posted on 02/18/2005 3:13:04 PM PST by PJ-Comix
WOODRUFF: As we've seen in our coverage all this week, online blogs are receiving a lot of attention. And some say their influence is overstated.
With me now again, Howard Kurtz of CNN's "RELIABLE SOURCES," and political analyst Stu Rothenberg, of "Roll Call" and the "Rothenberg Political Report."
Stu, let me start with you. We just heard Howard's report giving us a look at who some of the bloggers are. But you're a long-time political observers, analyst. What do you make of the blogs?
STU ROTHENBERG, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Well, I think blogging is simply another vehicle for people getting their opinions out. Everybody has opinions. For hundreds of years they've used different methods, whether it's soap boxes or pamphlets, talk radio.
Now blogs. They're opinions. And they're as good as or not as good as the particular opinion and the person who is offering it.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1346323/posts
The only two things that matter are two political adages:
1) All politics is local. This means that corruption is something that other people do, not "our guy."
2) It's the economy, stupid. Nuff said.
Since the RATS have no message other than to bash Bush they don't stand a chance.
No, Stu Rothenberg is not a Democrat consultant. He is a Democrat lap dog, and he has never been right. He is not going to be right about this year either. He, like Charlie Cook, another Democrat lap dog, live in the Washington bubble. Neither have a clue as to the real world.
"ALL YOUR BASES ARE BELONG TO US"
Or in other words wishful thinking+WAG based on mumbo jumbo=dem victory.
Heard it before in 2002.
Type in "Daily Kos Election 2002" into a search engine and read up on liberal election forecasting.
LOL!
fifteen seats to get to the magic number of 218 seats and control of the chamber. That would make Representative Nancy Pelosi Speaker, install Democrats as chairs of House committees, and fundamentally change the political environment on Capitol Hill
Yup, it sure would... For one, it would ensure that no Democrat would be elected President in 2008.
I still get a good chuckle out of the "Diversity is Strength" position on Iraq.
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