Posted on 01/22/2006 2:15:49 PM PST by new yorker 77
WASHINGTON - Supreme Court nominee Samuel A. Alito Jr. appears certain to be approved Tuesday by the Senate Judiciary Committee in a straight, 10-8 party-line vote, setting the stage for a vigorous floor debate that will culminate in Alito's confirmation.
The Republicans have won the latest judicial battle - but the war over the divisive issues that dominated his hearings has only intensified, according to legal experts.
In fact, the 12-week process since his Oct. 31 nomination spotlighted the polarization of politics between Democrats and Republicans, particularly on abortion, executive power, individual rights, and other contentious matters destined for the docket of the Supreme Court.
Senate Judiciary Chairman Arlen Specter (R., Pa.), still smarting over the Democrats' insistence on delaying the Alito vote for a week, said the expected party-line vote in his panel "says more about the Senate than the nominee."
"Positions have really hardened," he said in an interview. "People who have voted for [Chief Justice John G.] Roberts don't want to cross party lines twice."
Three Democrats on the committee joined the 10 Republicans voting for Roberts' nomination last fall. One of them, ranking Democrat Patrick Leahy of Vermont, has already said he will not vote for Alito.
The party-line split is a "healthy reminder" that not all Supreme Court nominations are alike, said legal scholar Sarah Binder of George Washington University.
"When the question was whether to replace William H. Rehnquist with another conservative, some Democrats were willing to vote for Roberts," Binder said.
"But when the nomination is to fill a swing or critical seat - a nominee who could swing the ideological direction of the court - the opposition party is more likely to object if it feels the nomination will swing the court against its interests," she said. Alito would succeed retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, a frequent swing vote on social issues.
Alito, a 15-year member of the Philadelphia-based Third Circuit federal appeals court, met with more senators last week, mainly Democrats, hoping to increase his vote margin.
The White House predicted that Alito would garner 60 to 70 Senate votes - Roberts drew 78 - but that seems overly optimistic. For one thing, Democrats want to withhold votes and reduce his winning margin so that Alito can be used as a campaign issue in future elections.
"A 'no' vote is an easy vote," Specter said. "When you vote 'aye,' you're somewhat on the line for what the guy is going to do."
Legal experts say the intense politicizing of the confirmation process means that any hint of a judge's ideology can kill a nomination.
"In the present climate, really superb professional qualifications are essential to insulate a nominee from the inescapable ideological sticks and stones," said legal historian David J. Garrow of Cambridge University.
Alito will prevail, Garrow said, because there "really was no question about his personal and professional qualifications," while White House counsel Harriet Miers - President Bush's initial choice for O'Connor's seat - "went down the tubes" because "everyone realized she was a judicial turkey."
Five years of the Bush administration and a pair of new Supreme Court justices have changed the face of the federal judiciary.
"Certainly the impact of unified Republican control has been registered on the federal courts, as the proportion of Republican-appointed judges has increased markedly," Binder said. More than 200 federal judicial nominees of Bush's have been confirmed.
"The confirmation process itself shows the strains of strongly polarized political parties, at odds over the range of divisive issues that routinely come before the Supreme Court," Binder said.
Said Specter: "It's not just the confirmation process, it's the whole Senate - it's everything we do."
Specter cited the increasing acrimony over the reauthorization of the Patriot Act as an example and said that partisanship over the issue had caused deep strains on the Senate Intelligence Committee.
He said he was determined not to let such "bickering" destroy what he called the "equilibrium" on the Judiciary Committee.
In that vein, Specter spoke disparagingly of what he called "a clumsy ambush" by Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D., Mass.) over Alito's alleged past membership in the Concerned Alumni of Princeton, a conservative group.
Specter said Kennedy waited until Alito's hearing was in progress to request documents on the group, though the Democrat had many prior opportunities to raise the issue with Specter.
As President Bush has proceeded to put a Republican imprint on all levels of the federal bench, Democrats have increased their scrutiny of his nominees.
Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) contends that only vigorous opposition has led Bush to refrain from selecting even more conservative judicial nominees.
Alito is an example, Schumer said. Legal observers think Alito is not as conservative as some candidates Bush was considering.
Asked whether he agreed with Schumer's assertion, Specter said, "If Sen. Schumer wants to take some credit for that, I won't stand in his way."
But how conservative will Alito be?
"I expect Alito will certainly be closer to [Justice Antonin] Scalia than to O'Connor," Garrow said, "and very likely will be closer to Scalia than [to] Roberts."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contact staff writer Steve Goldstein at 202-383-6048 or slgoldstein@krwashington.com.
I can't wait to see the breakdown. They'll exceed their own dielectric capacity.
ZOT!
Reid has made two counts, in fact. How many would vote to uphold a filibuster, and how many will vote against Alto's confirmation, on the floor of the Senate. I even predict the press release or statement that Reid will issue right after Alito is confirmed.
Reid will point to the votes against Alito, which will be more than 40. He will claim that "We had enough votes to filibuster, but we decided to be nice guys." He will be lying through his crooked yellow teeth, because he will know exactly how many of those votes would have jumped ship if he asked them to support a filibuster of a good judge, in an election year.
See if it plays out that way.
Congressman Billybob
Latest column: "The 'Chocolate' Minds of Mayor Nagin and Senator Clinton"
I am less sure of that than you are. Don't be complacent. And don't count on Frist following thru.
Why isn't everybody deriding the idea that there is a "swing" seat on the court? That is preposterous-- there are only seats. The Dems should be made fun of for even positing such a dumb idea.
They have to resist Alito after giving in to the Roberts nomination, otherwise they'll lose their leftist money supply.
I also want the Republicans to remember that if the dims take the presidency next election but we still hold the Senate that because of the dims it's now ok to vote against the nominee if you don't agree with him.
Put the dims in position like they are trying to create right now but with the power to really block a nominee.
Democrats suffer from the "Arab Decease" of delusion and utter denial of reality. Like the Arabs they constantly declare victory even when they are badly defeated. And the more they are defeated the greater their delusions get. It is amazing how common is human psychology regardless of the culture!
It's just not going to happen. Even losing one or two seats probably represents a "worst case". Especially since it is entirely conceivable that the GOP will win three previously Democrat seats in '06 -- in Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota.
Thus, GOP could lose in Pennsylvania, Montana and Missouri without experiencing a net loss. The downside would be that the mix would be more RINO than before, however.
Resign? Fiddlesticks. Time for the big dirt nap.
"Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) contends that only vigorous opposition has led Bush to refrain from selecting even more conservative judicial nominees.
Alito is an example, Schumer said. Legal observers think Alito is not as conservative as some candidates Bush was considering."
You know what? Let him think that ... it beats the truth.
"Harriet Miers was the Titanic that did not sail."
Personally? I think Harriet took the fall for her friend President Bush. She totally did us a favor in being complicit in President Bush's Rope-a-Dope of the DimoWits in this matter.
I'm praying for a third appointment before 2008, too! Point. Set. Match! :)
Practically every word Schumer speaks I consider "divisive," but I suppose it's only divisive when a conservative speaks, not an abortion-promoting liberal...
I think the next pick will be a moderate like O'Connor just because of the hearings being so brutal.
I hope I'm wrong but I'm thinking many real conservatives won't go through the needless trashing. JMO.
an Hispanic woman is the perfect pick if he gets a third choice, but I suspect they will kepp Ginsberg and Stevens on life support until 2008.
for now, let's not look too far ahead - let's get Alito confirmed.
no way, we don't want a filibuster - because we might not win it. its the outcome here that is important (Alito being confirmed).
correct. keep posting that, way too many freepers think this thing is in the bag already.
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