Posted on 01/21/2006 1:19:54 AM PST by presidio9
Two new polls depict a potential matchup between Gov. Ed Rendell and Republican candidate Lynn Swann as a virtual tie.
Both surveys, by Zogby International and Rassmussen Reports, show the other major Republican contender, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton, trailing the incumbent with similar margins, by 45.7 percent to 37.9 percent in the Zogby poll and by 46 percent to 36 percent in Rasmussen.
The difference between Mr. Swann and Mr. Rendell's numbers were within the margin of error in each poll. With Zogby, it was Mr. Rendell, 43.9 percent; Mr. Swann, 43.6 percent; Rasmussen: Mr. Rendell, 45 percent; Mr. Swann, 43 percent.
Both polls, as the Scranton campaign was quick to note, use methodologies that differ from those of many public opinion surveys.
The Rasmussen poll is based on responses to automated, recorded calls, rather than questions posed by human interviewers as with more traditional public opinion sampling. The Zogby survey uses still another approach, with its results resting on an Internet survey of pre-screened respondents.
Some critics have noted that, overall, Internet access is skewed toward certain groups, such as younger and more affluent users. Zogby maintains, however, that their results are weighted to reflect the views of the general population. The firms sponsoring both surveys maintain that they, like more traditional polls, offer a snapshot of public views that is within a few percentage points of the results that would be found if every Pennsylvania voter had been interviewed.
"I'm not saying they're wrong, but both [methods] are controversial; they raise eyebrows within the academic research community," said Terry Madonna, a veteran chronicler of Pennsylvania elections who directs Franklin & Marshall College's Keystone Poll. "But having said that, with two polls using widely varying methodologies showing the race tightening, that's evidence that the race is tightening.''
(Excerpt) Read more at post-gazette.com ...
Encouraging, but Zogby is Zogby. You can throw that one out of the equation.
Are you saying Swann is Zogby's dog in this fight?
No, I'm saying I don't trust Zogby. Ever. Even if the polls give a result I like, I can't bring myself to believe he has a sound methodology.
Go, Swanny, Go! He's got my vote and anything I can do to help get him elected will be done!
The report seems to indicate that Swannie can beat Rendell more easily that Scranton. Do you think it's just Zogby being cynical?
I'm being cynical about Zogby. The way he come out on election day, around 4 pm, and said his latest "poll" showed Kerry winning in a landside with 320 or so electoral votes--he's a hack.
I didn't intend to derail this thread to talking all about Zogby--it's supposed to be about Swann. I wish him luck. Don't know much about his platform, but as I'm not a Pennsylvania resident, it's not really my place to comment on it.
I think the time has come for me to retire for the evening. I wish you all a good night.
Did you read the article? Rassmussen has the same findings.
Any fool who bets against Swann in a tie in the fourth quarter...suffice to say they'll soon be parted with their money.
Challengers, even known quantities, usually do well against incumbents before the campaign season goes into full swing. If Swannie acquits himself well on the stump, he will give Rendell a good race and hopefully will be the victor. I am a Pennsylvanian and would love to support Swann, but I really don't know anything about him except for he was a GREAT football player and a decent sideline announcer.
I'm reserving judgement somewhat until I see and hear him on the stump. This race is going to garner humongous national attention.
That being said, I would vote for him over Scranton in a heartbeat if it was a good bet he was the one who could topple Rendell.
Has anybody seen Swann speak on the campaign trail? Is he good?
I don't know about Swann's speaking skills on the road, but on the football field he seems very good at speaking with a mike. Fox is gonna have to replace him.
With Swann emerging as a real threat to Rendell, I wonder how long it will be before some "scandal from years ago" involving Swann suddenly surfaces.
Right Hornet, but that will not work for Rendell against a popular African American. Swann, if he has to, can use the race card and fast Eddie knows it. Rendell can not lose a single Black vote in Pitt or Philly.
I hope you're right. However, look at what they're trying to do to Bill Cosby. For over 40 years, he's been an extremely popular African American entertainer. In all that time, there was never once a hint of scandal. Then he started speaking out and and saying things that threaten the agenda of the Jesse Jacksons and Al Sharptons of the world. Suddenly, a woman comes forward and files a sexual harrassment lawsuit against Cosby for an incident that supposedly happened years ago. Make no mistake about it - if Swann threatens the Rats power in Pennsylvania, they'll do whatever they can to bring him down, and Black democrats will go right along with it.
I'm watching the Steeler-Bronco game, and Pittsburgh is ahead 24-3 at the half. I wonder what a Steeler Super Bowl win would do for Swann in the polls?
Yes I do. Swann is extremely popular in Pittsburgh. With the Steelers in the Super Bowl, I'm sure the Pittsburgh area television stations will be showing clips from their previous Super Bowl victories again and again over the next couple of weeks. Swann was a big part of that, so it will only serve to reinforce his popularity. Rendell needs to carry both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia to win. The rest of the state usually votes Republican. Carrying Philly alone will not be enough for Rendell.
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