Posted on 01/15/2006 10:04:04 AM PST by weef
With every passing year after the turn of the century, the instability of the Gulf region grew. By the beginning of 2006, nearly all the combustible ingredients for a conflict - far bigger in its scale and scope than the wars of 1991 or 2003 - were in place.
The first underlying cause of the war was the increase in the region's relative importance as a source of petroleum. On the one hand, the rest of the world's oil reserves were being rapidly exhausted. On the other, the breakneck growth of the Asian economies had caused a huge surge in global demand for energy. It is hard to believe today, but for most of the 1990s the price of oil had averaged less than $20 a barrel.
A second precondition of war was demographic. While European fertility had fallen below the natural replacement rate in the 1970s, the decline in the Islamic world had been much slower. By the late 1990s the fertility rate in the eight Muslim countries to the south and east of the European Union was two and half times higher than the European figure.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Thanks. I like what if's...
Good article :)
The scary part is China siding with Tehran.
They won't if we go in soon.
This is a strong contender for the stupidest thing I have ever heard. While China may side with Tehran in a skirmish at the UN if it comes to a shoot out and they have to choose between the United States and Iran they are going to be singing Yankee Doodle for sure.
Think of it this way, what are the Chinese going to do with the oil after their economy collapses? For without access to US markets the Chinese would have to revert to making pig iron in their backyard furnaces for forging statues of Chairman Mao.
So history repeated itself. "
He omitted the scene of thousands of ships full of starving, freezing Europeans streaming into US ports, only to be fired upon by the Navy. Actually, I'd pay to see that.
Scary stuff.
said it a hundred times...this is still the "Phoney war" stage of the conflict
Your narcissism in thinking the sun rises ans sets on the USA is what's stupid.The Chinese economy is growing at an unbelieveable pace and NOT just because the USA is buying.
Have you counted the Chinese population lately?
The USA's birthrate is in a downward spiral, just like old Europe...thank you abortion and the necessity of a two income family to sustain itself.
Buy a clue, please?
Either they will, in which case the issue will be resolved quickly, or they won't, in which case Iran will cease threatening everybody and will become interested in ordinary business, trade, commerce.
Our birthrate is not that bad. We would be staying constant without immigrants. With immigration, we are growing.
Reminds me of the scene in on of Clint Eastwood's westerns, The Outlaw Josey Wales.
The bounty hunter confronts Josey in the saloon and Eastwood (Wales) tells him in esence to forget about the reward and ride on if he valued his life.
The bounty hunter walks out of the swinging doors and 10 seconds later returns, saying, "I had to come back". Josey Wales simply says, "I know". Bang. 1 dead bounty hunter.
Iran, because of the theocratic government, cannot walk away and be civilized. They will be destroyed.
Interesting read.
We need these people. We need the underground economy to sustain small business...the backbone of our economy.
I don't see how China could plausibly threaten the U.S. by 2007. From what I have read, the U.S. has WAY more nukes than China, in fact a lot more nukes than China and Russia combined. If it came down to flying nukes in the Middle East, the U.S. would settle that situation pretty quickly, by lobbing it's own into the mix. China and Russia could be kept at bay by simply reminding them that we had PLENTY of nukes left over to take care of both of them too, should the need arise.
Perhaps Iran would be crazy enough to lob a few nukes at Israel - but that would be their entire arsenal. However, I would imagine that Israel's response would equally devestate Iran, as I believe Israel probably has more nukes than Iran. In addition, the U.S. would probably "plant" a few nukes in Iran also. I think that would pretty much end any conflict for the time being. Any conventional military force fielded in the Mid East by China and Russia, should they choose to invade, would be taken care by more U.S. nukes if needed - the U.S. could not allow the Mid East oil to fall into enemy hands.
The only way I can see the U.S. "advantage" being countered is for China to build a LOT more nukes, so that the threat of retailiation by the U.S. becomes meaningless (back to the cold war again). However, if China started this type of nuclear buildup, the U.S. would begin doing the same, just like we did back during the time of the Soviets.
This of course is all built upon my original premise that the U.S. really DOES have a lot more nukes than everyone else combined (at this point in time, anyway). If I am wrong about that, then China and Russia might feel more emboldened, as outlined in this article. Otherwise, China is not not going to feel ready to move openly against the U.S. for at least another decade (and hopefully a lot longer - like NEVER!!).
My biggest fear with Iran is that while they are busy posturing out in the open, they will build a few nukes and secretly give them to al-qada (or however it is spelled!!). These would then be smuggled into the U.S. and detonated in a few of our large cities. Dealing with THAT would effectively cause us to retreat from the world stage for several years, at least. Which is what the Islamo-facists really want.
It would also make us so paranoid about our sea ports and imports that we would essentially stop importing all foreign goods for a REALLY long time, even though most of our nation would still be intact (not to mention that everyone in the U.S. would be in a panic to move out of the large cities, and everyone would be moving here and there trying to avoid living in the next nuclear target zone - even though there probably would be no "next nuclear target zone"). The net effect would be the collapse of the world economy. Then, all bets would be off!!
Of course, not all world leaders react in a predictable fashion, so anything could and would happen in reality. Let us all pray that cool heads prevail everywhere, and that NONE of this comes to pass.
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