We didnt invade Iraq for oil, and alas, oil production in Iraq is no better than prior to 2003.
IMHO, there should be no rush to act, but there must be the patience to build the international case that striking Iran is necessary and/or that Iran must stop.
NO, no. I didn't mean that we invaded Iraq for oil as our first priority. There were numerous other reasons of more immediate importance. But there are a number of countries that needed to be dealt with, sooner or later, and we probably put Iraq at the head of the list for that reason, among others. After all, Syria has caused at least as much trouble as Saddam did, but Syria can wait.
We have not taken the oil, which we could have done. But if chaos breaks out in Saudi Arabia through no fault of our own, which it could do at any time, at least we will have secured an alternative supply.
We haven't taken advantage of the Iraqi oil as fully as we might have done because we don't really need it now and we don't want to give propaganda ammunition to our fifth columnists in the media and the DNC. But we may need it in the future, and if we do at least Saddam isn't sitting on it, ready to blow the wells.
[IMHO, there should be no rush to act, but there must be the patience to build the international case]
The biggest factor is Russia. They have benefitted from the high oil prices coming from Mideast "instability." The WOT is a boon to them.
The biggest losers are the Europeans. They are just paying the high oil prices while they cower in fear of terrorists thinking that they might even be secretly cheering for the Americans to win the WOT.
China is paying the high oil prices. It would be in their interest for this stupid WOT to finally end (via Iranian democracy).
Venezuela? In Chavez's interest that the WOT continue with high oil prices. With an Iran War...watch majorly stupid action from Chavez...a very key distraction for us.
The Saudis? Regime change in Iran would make democracy all over the Middle East finally "inevitable." Bush would be vindicated for Iraq if he gets a twofer fairly easily.
There would be noone to fund an "insurgency" in Iran if we give them their freedom. Hezbollah around the world will dry out of funds if we take the Iranian oil fields and switch the revenue stream.
But it keeps coming back to Russia. And they are playing chicken as well. They couldn't afford Iran actually getting nukes (Russia only has 2 culture centers and no real suburban population for the middle class). But they would be deflated if there was a sudden outbreak of democracy and peace in the Middle East.
If the Saudis and Egyptians and Turks joined forces in a surprise attack on Iran with the USA...enough of the Sunni Arab population would cheer for their national forces...and they would like the USA better for being "on their side" this time around. Remember that the attack on Iraq was, to arab Sunnis, an attack on Iraqi Sunnis.
And, indeed, the #1 reason for the Iraq War was to reduce Sunni Muslim political power in the Middle East relative to Shiites.