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To: WOSG

[IMHO, there should be no rush to act, but there must be the patience to build the international case]

The biggest factor is Russia. They have benefitted from the high oil prices coming from Mideast "instability." The WOT is a boon to them.

The biggest losers are the Europeans. They are just paying the high oil prices while they cower in fear of terrorists thinking that they might even be secretly cheering for the Americans to win the WOT.

China is paying the high oil prices. It would be in their interest for this stupid WOT to finally end (via Iranian democracy).

Venezuela? In Chavez's interest that the WOT continue with high oil prices. With an Iran War...watch majorly stupid action from Chavez...a very key distraction for us.

The Saudis? Regime change in Iran would make democracy all over the Middle East finally "inevitable." Bush would be vindicated for Iraq if he gets a twofer fairly easily.

There would be noone to fund an "insurgency" in Iran if we give them their freedom. Hezbollah around the world will dry out of funds if we take the Iranian oil fields and switch the revenue stream.

But it keeps coming back to Russia. And they are playing chicken as well. They couldn't afford Iran actually getting nukes (Russia only has 2 culture centers and no real suburban population for the middle class). But they would be deflated if there was a sudden outbreak of democracy and peace in the Middle East.

If the Saudis and Egyptians and Turks joined forces in a surprise attack on Iran with the USA...enough of the Sunni Arab population would cheer for their national forces...and they would like the USA better for being "on their side" this time around. Remember that the attack on Iraq was, to arab Sunnis, an attack on Iraqi Sunnis.

And, indeed, the #1 reason for the Iraq War was to reduce Sunni Muslim political power in the Middle East relative to Shiites.


53 posted on 01/12/2006 11:43:17 AM PST by GermanBusiness
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To: GermanBusiness

Good analysis ... Russia is indeed the key, IMHO.

The fact that Russia is now giving us 'green light' on UNSC referral is a sign that they have 'flipped' on this, seeing greater risk from Iran nukes than benefits from helping the rogue regime.

Let's not forget Chechnya and Russia's Islamic underbelly!


78 posted on 01/13/2006 7:46:15 AM PST by WOSG (http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com/)
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