Posted on 01/10/2006 12:02:33 PM PST by lizol
Russian-Ukrainian Relationship May Worsen — Experts
Relations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko may worsen, experts say.
“The relationship couldn’t be worse,’’ Rainer Lindner, head of the Eastern Europe department at the Berlin-based Foundation for Science and Politics, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. ”The very dirty part of the game is still ahead.’’
Following the gas row, Putin is likely to step up pressure on Ukraine in the runup to parliamentary elections in the country set for March 26. Experts say Russia may now be trying to tilt the vote in favor of candidates who favor closer ties with Moscow rather than the West, the agency reported.
The elections will be pivotal for Ukraine’s orientation between the East and the West. “This time, the Kremlin’s policy is to cast its net wide, and support those who support closer ties to Russia,” director of the Sophia Center of Social Research in Kiev, Andriy Yermolayev, was quoted by the agency as saying. “In 2004 (when the presidential election took place), the Kremlin didn’t hide its sympathy. This time it is taking a more flexible, subtle line.”
“Russia will try to indicate its displeasure with the Yushchenko team and will try to get its people elected,” Ariel Cohen, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said. He did not rule out that Putin might stage a “last-minute” confrontation with Yushchenko to emphasize to Ukrainian voters the risks of straying too far from Russia.
In 2004, Russia supported the then prime minister Viktor Yanukovich in his bid for the presidency. Yanukovich officially won the election, however, Yushchenko disputed the results in the courts claiming they were falsified. The conflict took the form of mass protest actions called the Orange Revolution. After a re-election, Yushchenko became president.
After an intense conflict over new gas prices, Ukraine agreed to pay an average $95 per 1,000 cubic meters for fuel coming from Russia and Central Asia. While the price is almost double the $50 Ukraine was previously charged, it is far less than the $230 that OAO Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled gas monopoly, had been demanding before cutting the gas on Jan. 1.
“Western perception is that Ukraine has won; that is bad for Putin,’’ Lindner said. ”Putin himself was damaged by Yushchenko.’’
Some analysts say Putin’s next step may be to take further advantage of Ukraine’s energy dependence to exert pressure. “It can be oil’’ next time, Cohen said. Ukraine imports 80 percent of the oil it consumes, mostly from Russia, and Russia-based companies OAO Lukoil, TNK-BP and NK Alliance Group control three of Ukraine’s four largest refineries.
However, Sonal Desai, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Milan, said, she didn’t think oil would be the route for them to go. She said Russian efforts to influence the vote may be more subtle. ”Russia would not commit the same errors that they did the last time round,’’ she said. “I wouldn’t expect overt influence on the Ukrainian election as we saw for presidential elections. On the other hand, the timing of the flare-up of the gas issue is probably not a coincidence either.’’
Another reason for the worsening of the relationship may be Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO. On Monday, the alliance’s Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said Ukraine’s entry in 2008 was likely, although he mentioned the country’s success would depend on the success of reforms.
Russia has leased facilities at the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol for its Black Sea fleet since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. The day Ukraine and Russia agreed to end the gas crisis, Ukraine’s Economy Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk called for a review of the Russian fleet’s $98 million leasing agreement.
The heightened tensions with Russia come at a time when Yushchenko’s popularity has sunk since September, when a split opened up in the ranks of the Orange Revolution. A Dec. 10-18 poll of 2,000 people conducted by the Sophia Center showed the ”Party of the Regions’’ led by Yanukovich with the support of 31.1 percent; 17.9 percent backed Yushchenko’s “Our Ukraine’’ party and 17 percent supported a party led by former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, former Yushchenko’s ally during the revolution but ousted in September.
Another survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, conducted between Dec. 9 and Dec. 20, showed Yanukovich’s party with 34.5 percent to 21 percent for Timoshenko’s party and 18.4 percent for Yushchenko’s. Under the new Ukrainian constitution, power in the new government will shift from the president to a prime minister.
The folks of Ukraine have our prayers. Don't buckle to the russian bear. Or forever do so.
I think Yus and Tymo are setting themselvesup as the opposing forces so that Putin has to deal with Yush - this gets Yanukovych out of the picture.
You wouldn't need to be experts to say that. :)
Yanukovich is winning in the polls.
Tymoshenko is trying desperatly to regain power after Yushchenko unceremoniously kicking her to the curb.
Maybe, but they may wake up some day very surprised ("with a hand in a chamber-pot" - as we say in Poland).
Difference being Yushchenko isn't a rightist.
He sits on a Soros organization that promotes the 'rights of women and minorities' [IE women's right to murder, and gays right to flip off God in his own house] and gives money to their cause.
Actually I thaught, they couldn't get much worse.
Instead you wish them to be under the leadership of a man who is on the board of directors for a Ukrainian Soros front that donates to 'the rights of women and minorities' IE Gays, and women that want to kill their babies.
Folks who aren't getting foreign cash to win, which is a damn shame. Ukraine has right wing parties, they just to gain the attention of big pockets like Soros.
As you all continually point out Soros had contacts on Yanukovich's side as well (not fellow board members of his front organizations but he wasn't gonna be left out in the cold).
Pretty much ensures the right isn't going to win when Soros enter's his socialist against the one Russia was funding.
But Soros would never dream of affecting elections because he's a Polish national hero or something yada yada yada bla bla bla.
Chill out, Xie
Yeah buddy, that is exactly what I said you moron.
x5452
Don't look now but Soros is hiding under your sofa and he is poisoning your salo with granola and your vodka with fluoride.
We should stop giving Ukraine NATO support until this mess sorts out.
Which would mean that Ukraine would give Russia NATO technology.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.