Posted on 01/05/2006 12:00:28 PM PST by neverdem
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Midterm race still iffy for DemocratsBy Donald LambroTHE WASHINGTON TIMES Published January 5, 2006
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(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
They do not have plan or a vision to deal with the issues facing middle America. When they do they will start tot win, until then they will lose.
Right now, in fact, polls show Republican state Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr., son of the popular former governor, with a 13-point lead over Robert Menendez, the Democratic congressman Mr. Corzine named to fill the rest of his unexpired term. Other Democrats are about to jump in the race, raising the likelihood of a divisive party primary, while Republicans are energized and united behind Mr. Kean's candidacy.
Sweet.
"Forecasts that the Democrats are going to cut deeply into the Republican majority in Congress are a little premature at this point in the 2006 midterm election season."
Their opening line should read, "Forecasts that the rats could make even a minor dent into the Republican majority in Congress are grossly premature and frankly, insane, at this point in the 2006 midterm election season."
The rats have no hope of winning anywhere, they can only keep some of their seats if their dumbed-down constituents haven't improved in the intelligence department. Anyone with a lick of common sense can see that the rats are clearly in no position to govern or defend the nation in the times we currenly live in.
bump
Core prediction: In the 2006 mid-term elections, Republicans will retain control of Congress.
(a) Larger Blue state pluralities do not affect Congressional districts.
(b) Only roughly one-third of the Senate stands in any given election year.
(c) Election processes are strongly tilted toward returning incumbents.
(d) As shown in 2004, a majority or controlling plurality of Red state voters are beyond reach.
I think its near impossible for the Democrats to pick up the Senate this year. Forget what this reporter says, Steele doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. The Republicans will lose Santorum, Chaffee and DeWine. Talent staying and Kennedy and Kean picking up a seat are probably tossups. A six seat gain is next to impossible, the real place to look out for is the House.
The polls I've seen show Menendez up by like 4%-6%. Has anybody seen that poll in which Kean, Jr. is up by 13%?
And as for all New Jersey Republicans supposedly being united behind Kean, Jr., I seriously doubt it. The younger Kean appears to be even more liberal than his RINO father and will likely face a primary challenge from the right, and even if he's the nominee he will have a hard time getting a large enough conservative turnout to beat the Democrat. Remember, President Bush got 46.24% in NJ in 2004, so the best way to win is to have a large conservative turnout in the face of the reduced off-year turnout (with neither the presidential nor gubernatorial elections going on).
I predict three Republicans will be defeated, barring an unforseen change of circumstances:
Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Mike DeWine of Ohio, and Conrad Burns of Montana. Also, the reelections of Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island & Jim Talent of Missouri could go either way. So Republicans need to make up for these drop-offs in other states.
The races in play:
Florida--Sen. Bill Nelson will be unseated if Republicans find a good candidate. So far, they have failed to do so.
Maryland--Republicans have a first-rate candidate in Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. But as excellent as Steele is, even he'll have a tough time winning in this very Democrat state.
Minnesota--Congressman Mark Kennedy was supposed to be the front-runner. But the race has turned out more difficult than expected. The Democrat front-runner, Minneapolis D.A. Amy Kobluchar, is slightly ahead in both polls and fundraising.
Nebraska--Sen. Bill Nelson is pulling away. It helps him that he's the closest thing to a conservative Democrat in the Senate. But he could still lose in this very Republican state.
New Jersey--State Sen. Thomas Kean, Jr. is doing everything right in his race for the U.S. Senate, and even conservatives are reluctantly rallying to his cause. Sen. Bob Menendez may be overly abrasive to appeal to New Jersey voters.
Washington--This race is not going particularly well. Insurance executive Mike McGavick has suffered bad publicity from being "unable" to step down from his corporate job and has lost ground. But Sen. Maria Cantwell's approval ratings, though rising, are still less than stellar. McGavick remains within striking distance.
You're overly cynical about Steele's chances. He will, at the very least, shave Democrat margins among African-American voters. Also, the Democrat primary between Ben Cardin & Kweisi Mfume is becoming increasingly tense, with increasing ill-will between their supporters.
Nelson won't lose in Fla. unless Jeb runs, and the likelihood of that is low.
I said it before and i will say it again
I hope Tommy Thompson jumps into the Senate race against Kohl
he is not even running but leads (within margin of error) in polls against the guy
at the very least it could drain some DNC resources
That Kean +13 poll was done for the NRSC by McLaughlin & Associates, so take it with a grain of salt. A WSJ poll from October did have Kean +9 over Menendez (in a hypothetical matchup, before the Governor's race.)
My prediction:
GOP loses 2, gains 1. Net loss of 1.
From what I've seen, the Democrat primary hasn't turned into the race war one might expect. The main reason Steele will lose is because he is conservative. I can't remember a conservative Republican winning a statewide position in my lifetime, maybe RINOs can if they get lucky. Also, Bush has an approval rating in the 30's here, which is unsurprising, but Steele has been tying himself to Bush, and any two bit Democratic candidate can make that connection and hammer Steele and call him a Bush lackey and a right winger. I just don't see a Steele victory as realistic, the Republican party would've been wiser to put up a Connie Morella-type for the race.
Connie Morella ? Then what Republicans would've bothered to show up to vote ?
Neither did Bob Ehrlich. Heck, he was running against a Kennedy in Maryland!
Not premature -delusional!
I'm still pessimistic about New Jersey. Remember that the last Republican ELECTED to the Senate from New Jersey was Clifford Case, who won his initial Senate term when my father was still delivering the Star Ledger along Ferry Street (1954!)
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