Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

U.S. Growth May Hinge on Businesses (NYT: US Economy Flirts With Quagmire)
New York Times ^ | December 30, 2005 | LOUIS UCHITELLE

Posted on 12/30/2005 12:02:54 PM PST by presidio9

The housing market is gradually fading as a prop for the economy, eroding a source of increased wealth that allowed consumers to borrow and spend avidly in recent years.

Growing Stronger Meanwhile, the bond market, where short-term interest rates are now slightly above long-term rates in what is known as an inverted yield curve, suggests that the economy is headed for a sharp slowdown, perhaps even a recession. The stock market rally earlier this year has petered out.

So why do most forecasters predict that economic growth will remain relatively strong next year? Perhaps because they are counting on other sectors that have been relatively weak - particularly stepped-up business investment - to help sustain the robust expansion of the last 30 months.

"I think the surprise will be that housing prices and housing sales will decelerate, but the economy will do just fine," said Richard Berner, chief domestic economist for Morgan Stanley.

Mr. Berner is not alone in his optimism. Despite some worrisome indicators, only a handful of the 53 economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators predict that the growth rate in 2006 will drop much below the 3.7 percent average so far this year.

That outlook also assumes that consumer spending, deprived of the lift from rising home prices and mortgage refinancing, will not drop very much.

Despite high debt levels, it is still safe to say that Americans will somehow continue to buy on credit, and with energy prices falling, wages now diverted to gasoline purchases should be freed up to spend on the array of goods and services that drives the economy.

-snip-

Forecasters are notorious for missing major turning points in the economy.

-snip-

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Miscellaneous; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: economicquagmire; nytimes
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-38 next last

1 posted on 12/30/2005 12:02:56 PM PST by presidio9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: presidio9
"Forecasters are notorious for missing major turning points in the economy."

Only those employed by the NY DNC Times and other Dinosaur Media outlets

2 posted on 12/30/2005 12:04:17 PM PST by MNJohnnie (We do not create terrorism by fighting the terrorists. We invite terrorism by ignoring them.--GWBush)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: presidio9

Dubya needs to push another tax cut. Not because we really need it, but just to piss the liberals off.


3 posted on 12/30/2005 12:05:16 PM PST by GaltMeister (“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: presidio9
(NYT: US Economy Flirts With Quagmire)

But according to the NY Times, the economy hasn't been good under Bush. I guess they will revise that meme only if the economy actually starts to stagnate. Then they will tell us the economy was good, but faltered under Bush's leadership even though they've never admitted it was good.

4 posted on 12/30/2005 12:05:26 PM PST by SolidSupplySide
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: presidio9

"U.S. Growth may hinge on Businesses"

Kinda makes you want to say, "as opposed to...?" doesn't it?


5 posted on 12/30/2005 12:07:15 PM PST by ArmstedFragg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SolidSupplySide

The one thing that can't be argued is that many Americans are absolutely swimming in debt. That is the only thing that scares me in today's economy.


6 posted on 12/30/2005 12:07:30 PM PST by celejrm313
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie
I included that bit in the excerpt, because if you read the entire article it becomes obvious that the author hopes that this is just one of those times. "Things may look ok now, but hopefully there'll be a nasty recession soon, so we can get those idiot Rpublicans out of power and resume screwing up the nation/world."
7 posted on 12/30/2005 12:07:40 PM PST by presidio9 (Islam is as Islam does)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: presidio9
Not since the early to mid-1990's has the wage loss been so broad.

How did this slip in?

8 posted on 12/30/2005 12:08:41 PM PST by ncountylee (Dead terrorists smell like victory)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: presidio9

And acroos town, the Wall Street Journal says:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1549380/posts


9 posted on 12/30/2005 12:10:11 PM PST by groanup (Shred for Ian)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SolidSupplySide

Actually, US economic growth under Bush has been almost the same as it was under Clinton, even before you factor in 9/11 and Katrina. And unemployment is lower. In fairness, the Times has never referred to "growth" under Clinton. In it's pages, it is always "RECORD growth."


10 posted on 12/30/2005 12:10:31 PM PST by presidio9 (Islam is as Islam does)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: ncountylee

The country as a whole is prospering. The 'wage loss' is in the dinosaur media. Less people want their product. Sucks to be them!


11 posted on 12/30/2005 12:11:41 PM PST by GaltMeister (“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: presidio9
from the article....

"...to help sustain the robust expansion of the last 30 months."

AHA! Gotcha, the commie creeps.

The NYT has NEVER reported the Bush economy as a "ROBUST EXPANSION".

12 posted on 12/30/2005 12:12:29 PM PST by DCPatriot ("It aint what you don't know that kills you. It's what you know that aint so" Theodore Sturgeon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ArmstedFragg

Pretty damed profound, I'd say.


13 posted on 12/30/2005 12:15:19 PM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: presidio9
Show some respect here. The NY Times has predicted 5 of the last 2 recessions.
14 posted on 12/30/2005 12:16:40 PM PST by PMCarey
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: presidio9
The New York Times is so inept. The real estate boom is a crutch? What the hell are they smoking? Its like saying that our economy hinges on Michigan or the auto industry, yet both are in shambles. The point is that the American economy is bigger than selling houses.

But I don't expect them to get it or any of the great economic news like the 5% unemployment rate. I expect an article by Paul Krugman calling for the elimination of the Bush tax cuts.

15 posted on 12/30/2005 12:17:38 PM PST by KC_Conspirator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: presidio9

The economy depends upon businesses? I always thought it was the government that brought us all this wealth.


16 posted on 12/30/2005 12:19:51 PM PST by Mad_Tom_Rackham (A Liberal: One who demands half of your pie because he didn't bake one.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: presidio9
U.S. Growth may hinge on Businesses

In other news, how far the Bears go in the post season may hinge on how many playoff games they win.

17 posted on 12/30/2005 12:20:18 PM PST by thepatriot1 (...brought to you courtesy of the Red, White and Blue)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: presidio9

Poor MSM, it has taken them all of this time to come to the correct conclusion that the U.S. economy depends on how businesses do rather than government programs.


18 posted on 12/30/2005 12:21:19 PM PST by zerosix (Native Sunflower)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mad_Tom_Rackham

In an Algore Paradise.


19 posted on 12/30/2005 12:24:51 PM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: presidio9
How stupid is this headline? U.S. Growth May Hinge on Businesses

I suppose the NYTwits think growth 'hinges' on governemnt spending or electing democrats?

Nevermind. Just answered my own question.

20 posted on 12/30/2005 12:29:09 PM PST by No Longer Free State (No event has just one cause, no person has just one motive, no action has just the intended effect)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-38 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson