Tories (and Liberals) failing to make gains in Ontario, B.C. (solidifying support actually)

National Post ^ | 12/07/05 | Chris Wattie

[Kenny500c]

I was wondering about that. I know in the UK not all seats in Parliament represent the same number of constituents, is Canada the same? It makes a sham out of their so-called democracy.

[GeronL]

I have heard that Ontario and Quebec get more seats per capita than the other provinces.

[GeronL]

Population & # Parliament seats

---

Ontario-12,541,410..... 106

Quebec-7,598,146.....74

Alberta-3,256,816....28

Manitoba-1,177,556....14

I am counting names on a list here, so I might have been off or something

[GeronL]

Ontario, 1 for 118,315

Quebec, 1 for 102,677

Alberta, 1 for 116,314

Manitoba 1 for 84,111

So I guess the answer is a big NO

[GeronL]

If the counting I did was accurate, hopefully, then the answer is there is very little evidence against what I heard judging from these 4 provinces. Manitoba actually has more seats than they should apparently.

[goldstategop]

Ontario's provincial Parliament has the same number of ridings that it has in the national House Of Commons - and they have exactly the same boundaries.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[goldstategop]

A grandfather clause carried over from the old British North America Act guarantees each province the same number of seats they originally received upon admittance into the Dominion and on that base every province gets new seats in keeping with population growth. (Although Quebec has not added new seats in a couple of decades - that number remains at 75.) The number of seats keeps growing with every federal census so unlike in the United States, no province can lose seats because the size of the House Of Commons isn't fixed at arbitrary number by law. As of the 2001 Census, there are 308 members in the HOC, though that number will go up again after 2011.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[GeronL]

What if their population declines?

[goldstategop]

Then the House Of Commons membership will not increase but bottom line - no province will lose seats it had at the last federal census. For example, Quebec originally had 65 seats in 1867 and added 10 since. That's the same number of seats it has today and despite no major population growth, it still keeps those. Ontario started out at 82 in 1867 and that number has keep pace with population growth to max out at 106 today. So while the formula for distributing seats is complicated, the bottom line is simple: no province ever loses seats.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[GeronL]

OK, but thats pretty stupid in several ways. If half of Ontarians moved to Alberta then Ontario SHOULD lose seats.

In My Humble Opinion

[HostileTerritory]

Provinces with low populations, and Quebec, are overrepresented. This means that Quebec, the Maritime Provinces, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba have fewer voters per rep, while Ontario, Alberta, and B.C. have more voters per rep.

I'm not sure if Quebec is still as overrepresented as it used to be. Someone else posted some numbers above. Since Ontario is the heartland of the Liberals and Alberta the base for the Conservatives, while the Maritimes and the other Prairies swing back and forth among the different groups, the partisan effect is probably a wash.

[HostileTerritory]

I'm sure that if you had a move as dramatic as that, some sort of change would be effected. Systems like this can cope with gentle shifts but not massive transfers that are unlikely to take place.

It's still a lot fairer than our Senate.

[Heartofsong83]

Correct. That's because the Liberal support is heavily concentrated in the Toronto area.

[Ashamed Canadian]

Considering that Toronto is a write off because the Liebranos have imported hundreds of thousands of 3rd worlders into it these numbers are actually pretty good.

DING DING DING!!! Toronto is full of third world welfare cases, homeless people, prostitutes and homosexuals. Not exactly a conservative stronghold.

[GeronL]

bump