Posted on 12/05/2005 11:16:49 AM PST by West Coast Conservative
Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.
The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.
"The Israeli Air Force has formidable capabilities and enjoys unchallenged supremacy vis-à-vis the other Middle East air powers, but Israel has no aircraft carriers and it cannot use airbases in other Middle East states," the report entitled "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran," said. "Therefore its operational capabilities are reduced when the targets are located far from its territory." [On Sunday, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that diplomatic pressure would not stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, Middle East Newsline reported. Halutz was one of three senior Israeli officials who warned that Iran would soon be able to turn into a nuclear power.]
In an article authored by Shlomo Brom, former head of air force strategic planning, the report said Israel's deep-strike air capability was based on the F-15I and F-16C/D aircraft. At a range of more than 600 kilometers, Brom said, Israel could not sustain an air campaign. Iran is about 1,000 kilometers from Israel.
"It is possible to determine that at long ranges — more then 600 kilometers — the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets," the report said.
An Israeli air attack on Iran must also include such support aircraft as air refueling, electronic countermeasures, support, communication, and rescue, the report said. The mission would also require precision intelligence.
Brom said Israel's intelligence and military community was divided over the Iranian threat. He said military intelligence regards Iran as determined to destroy Israel. The Mossad and National Security Council see Teheran as preoccupied with national defense and regime survival.
"While the first school assumes no political pressure can force Iran to stop its military nuclear program, the other school believes that political pressure can be effective in at least delaying the nuclear program significantly," the report said. "The second school believes that a nuclear Iran with a different regime will not pose a high risk to Israel and can be easily deterred."
The report said the Bushehr nuclear power plant was vulnerable to attacks but does not constitute a key element of the military nuclear program. As a result, the destruction of Bushehr would not have a significant effect on Iran's military program.
Brom said Iranian nuclear assets are located between 1,500 and 1,700 kilometers from Israel. The report expressed doubts whether such Israeli allies as India and Turkey would allow Israel to launch a military strike from their territory.
"This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, fly 1,500-1,700 kilometers to the targets, destroy them, and then fly back 1,500-1,700 kilometers," the report said.
The Israel Air Force has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D fighter-bombers. The air force has already received more than 20 F-16Is, with longer range on the F-15I, but the report said the F-15I aircraft contains greater capabilities at long ranges.
The report said the F-15I has an operational radius of 1,270 kilometers. The F-16I has an operational radius of 2,100 kilometers while that of the F-16C/D is 925 kilometers.
But the report said the real operational radius was shorter because the planes would have to fly at low altitude to avoid radar detection. Brom said the Israeli aircraft could avoid Iranian air defense but would be detected.
"In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft — interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft — would participate," the report said. "The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation."
Want to Bet? If their survival is at stake, I'm betting on the Isrealis.
I don't believe Israel could do it.
Israel will not conduct a sustained attack on the Iranian nukes since Israel has no direct airspace contact with Iran. That the US might allow Israel to conduct on-going operations over Iraq or Saudi might allow Israel to overfly Saudiland at all is beyond possible. Turkey might allow the overflights, but this might easily ratchet up to general war.
Wonder why they canned it, I thought it a good idea.
Iran can only do this if and when there is a Democrat in the White House. The US, with a Republican in the WH, will destroy any country that uses the next nuclear weapon. Iran is not the only likely candidate.
B-2's B-1's B-52G's
Go get um boys...the future of the Planet depends upon us
and what we do soon.
25 F-15Is. Total F-15s - As, Bs, Cs, Ds & Is - ~88.
Something called the 'Roman Candle' effect. A significant portion of the blast would travel back up the hole the bomb drilled for itself. This would spread high level fallout locally and lose the benefits of a 'surgical' strike. Remember that Iran has built civilian housing, schools and hospitals over the targets...
I think the seriousness of this would be such that even a Democrat president would have to respond.
Very Creative,
May I suggest a side of hummus with the mutton.
but beware the Scottish Sheep Anti Defamation League's wrath.
Remember - sheep aren't just for dinner
They DON'T need friendly air space and further... they DON'T have to strike with airpower.
interesting.
And next year it'll be a quarter of a century since the strike.
Don't assume that the IAF wouldn't be above flying one way missions either.
That makes me sick. Only countries like Iran do stuff like that.
Iran's nuclear weapons program is fairly well distributed over numerous locations. Whoever attacks it will have to attack many difficult targets.
We keep hoping Israel will do it because we know that their leadership is serious, and united enough to launch an attack like this, and stick together through all of the counter-attacks and international outcry that would surely follow.
We hope this because we fear that we are not sufficiently united to accomplish this same attack. We know that we are the best suited, in terms of equipment and basing; this is precisely the kind of attack our forces are designed for. But we know that we are not united enough to carry this out. The president who ordered it would risk impeachment, the party that supported it would be pounded in the press, at the UN, on every campus. Few politicians are prepared to take that kind of political risk.
And so we hope Israel will do it. But they don't have the reach to take out 80 hardened targets 2000 kilometers from home. We do.
While you may be right re a change in govt. being the only viable option, if Israel go nuclear without having been attacked then they render themselves a pariah that will make it seem as though they have been the nmost popular country on Earth for the last fifty years. First use of nukes in a pre-emptive attack will be seen as beyond the par. I doubt even America would publically endorse this for Israel....
perhaps france or china or india or north korea should lend a 777 fueler............
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