Posted on 12/03/2005 12:00:39 PM PST by NautiNurse
1996 was a bad year for Florida Democrats. So was 1998. And 2000. 2002 was even worse. So was 2004.
But things could improve in 2006 and there's actually a feeling of hope at the Florida Democratic Party. And it's not just hollow optimism.
The party is starting to raise more money. It has a gubernatorial candidate, U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, who is even with better known Republicans in one recent poll. Gov. Jeb Bush won't be on the ballot. Democrats are avoiding primary contests in two key Cabinet races and trying more actively to recruit legislative and congressional candidates.
And next weekend the party is bringing in an impressive lineup of nationally recognized politicians to its annual convention in Orlando, an event that will seek to showcase its 2006 candidates while rallying support for the party itself.
"You could see not only a stop to the Republican victories in recent years, but you'll see a reversal," said state Sen. Dave Aronberg, who leads a group called Florida Mainstream Democrats. "The bleeding has stopped. We're going to make some gains."
While a lot can change in a year, University of North Florida political science professor Matthew Corrigan said Democrats do have reason to be optimistic.
"I don't think it's time to open the champagne, but both in terms of organization and electoral process, things are looking better now than they have since 1998 when Bush took over," he said.
Right now Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson is a heavy favorite to retain his seat. He's far ahead of Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris in the polls and Harris is having trouble raising money.
And with Republicans in Washington beginning to lose public support, Democrats feel they may be able to turn opinions in Florida, particularly when it comes to congressional races.
Growing dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, the ballooning federal deficit and controversies surrounding and top presidential aid Karl Rove have hurt Republicans nationally. Nelson, though, thinks public opinion started changing with an issue closer to home: The right-to-die case of brain-damaged Terri Schiavo and Republican-led attempts to keep her alive.
"People were feeling like a certain segment of society was trying to cram their agenda down the throats of everybody else" said Nelson.
Maintaining ground in the next election would be an improvement for Democrats.
In 1996, they lost power in the state House. In 1998, they lost the governor's seat. In 2000, President Bush carried the state by 537 votes in an election some Democrats still say was stolen. In 2002, Republicans swept the three Cabinet races and picked up two seats in Congress; Bush was re-elected by a wide margin. In 2004, Republican Mel Martinez won retiring Democratic Sen. Bob Graham's seat and President Bush easily defeated John Kerry.
State Democratic Chairman Karen Thurman, who took over in May, believes people are seeing improvements in the party and like what they see in Democratic candidates. The party is seeing an increase in donations for an off-election year. Over the three months ending in September, the party raised more than $1.2 million, its second-best quarter in a non-election year in a decade.
"It begins to build this feeling that we can win and quite frankly I think we're in the best position to win," Thurman said. "To this day, I still think we are a 50-50 state. It has never leaned more Republican or Democratic, it leans more toward the people" running for office.
Democrats have a slim edge over Republicans in registered voters, with 4.3 million registered compared to 3.9 million. More than 2.1 million voters don't register with either party.
Davis of Tampa and state Sen. Rod Smith of Alachua are the two Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Neither can be reasonably painted as liberal and either could appeal to moderate voters outside the Democrats' South Florida base.
Republicans, though, have two much-better known candidates, Attorney General Charlie Crist and Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher. The two Republicans have raised about $10 million compared to $2 million raised by the two Democrats.
Republican Party Chairman Carole Jean Jordan also notes that the Republicans have built a powerful grass-roots organization and has become more efficient than Democrats at getting out voters. The fact that Gov. Bush isn't on the ticket won't be a concern, she said.
"(Bush) is committed to helping the party. He's leading our fundraising again this year," Jordan said. "He's not going to leave the state of Florida. He's worked too hard and turned too many things around. I think Gov. Bush will always be there for us."
Even as his brother's popularity as president has reached new lows, Gov. Bush's approval rating has remained strong in Florida and he is largely credited with building the party to its current dominance. He proved in his re-election campaign that he can turn out a Republican base at the polls and the machine he built helped President Bush win Florida by a comfortable margin.
Republican political consultant Geoffrey Becker, who used to be the state party's executive director, conceded that 2006 could provide a better opportunity for Democrats to make some races competitive, but said Democrats are still a long way from taking advantage of it.
"There may be a sense that without the governor at the top of the ticket or the name Bush at the top of the ticket, it may make a difference, but it's too early to claim victory when their only claim to fame is negative news," Becker said. "They're feeding off national trends, if you will. That often times doesn't translate into state trends."
Money, organization and the depth of candidates seeking office are still in the GOP's favor, he said.
Democrats acknowledge that their message has to go beyond Republican bashing.
"We can't simply be carping and we can't simply be contrarians," said Rep. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, who is working with Thurman to recruit House candidates. "We have to offer ideas and we are trying to."
Next weekend will be an important rally for Democrats. Speakers will include Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, last year's vice presidential candidate John Edwards, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, a rising Democratic star from Illinois.
"Those are some pretty big names," said Corrigan. "National leaders sense political opportunity. Maybe the idea is if they can turn Florida, they can turn the whole nation, or a significant part of it."
That's the hope, Dean said.
"There are a lot of things coming together: The resurgence of the party, the willingness of the DNC to get involved in the local races and to support state parties, and quite frankly a fatigue with the kind of more extreme positions that Republicans often take."
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EDITORS' NOTE: Brendan Farrington has covered Florida politics for The Associated Press since 2001.
Not quite. That sound isn't the tide. It's the tsunami that's gonna sweep Dems from office...
It smells like low tide for Dems in Florida.
"Republicans have raised about $10 million compared to $2 million raised by the two Democrats."
If they keep this up, the pubbies will be in real trouble. The demonRATS are only down 5-1.
This article is another AP propaganda piece for the DNC.
Despite AP's ever-present effort to advance Democrats and the left-wing agenda, the article can be reduced to the following:
1. Maintaining ground in the next election would be an improvement for Democrats.
2. Republicans, though, have two much-better known candidates, Attorney General Charlie Crist and Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher. The two Republicans have raised about $10 million compared to $2 million raised by the two Democrats.
3. Money, organization and the depth of candidates seeking office are still in the GOP's favor, he said.
4. Democrats acknowledge that their message has to go beyond Republican bashing (which means they have no ideas and no agenda, not one they can run on anyway).
5. In 2002, Republicans swept the three Cabinet races and picked up two seats in Congress; Bush was re-elected by a wide margin. In 2004, Republican Mel Martinez won retiring Democratic Sen. Bob Graham's seat and President Bush easily defeated John Kerry.
Must have come up with a new way to cheat.
It doesn't get much worse than $900,000 in the hole with an IRS lien. They are still giddy that the DNC bailed them out.
Yeah, yeah, and McBride was going to beat Jeb.
Charlie Crist will be the next Republican governor of Florida.
...???...what's a chad?
Doogle
I want to record it in word for future use.
Just reposting to see how it looks.
The St. Petersburg Times: His foes say Bush may be beatable – September 8, 2002
The Nation Magazine: Could Turnout Turn Jeb Out? - October 10, 2002
CSMonitor: Could Jeb Bush really lose? - October 25, 2002
Florida Capital News Times: McBride, Dems count on turnout to pull off upset – October 31, 2002
Liberalspeak for: "We're trying very hard not to mention gay marriage, abortion on demand, Christian bashing, hate crime legislation, gun confiscation, and higher taxes. For now, we have to pretend to be Republicans. There will be time enough to get all that liberal stuff done once we're in power."
When Harris beats the wooden Indian the set will be complete. Anyone who thinks the rats have the slightest chance of making a come back in Florida is a fool or knows nothing about the state. They have something like 62 counties. The rats control maybe 10. The Florida GOP has the finest GOTV operation in America , bar none. That is why Bob Graham run away. He knew he was in for a huge ash kocking. They have almost nobody who is even know state wide and 800 new people a day are moving in. These are refugees from Democrat tax prison states. They're not moving in to vote Democrat.
Uh, I thought Jeb Bush was unpopular because he allegedly stole the 2000 election? I wish the Dems could keep their excuses straight.
This had AP smell all over it from the beginning.
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