Posted on 11/29/2005 1:17:14 PM PST by LdSentinal
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Prime Minister Paul Martin's lead in the polls evaporated as the country headed into an election campaign, according to the latest survey released on Tuesday.
Three other polls released on Monday and Tuesday showed a lead of five to six percentage points for Martin's Liberals over the Conservative Party, led by Stephen Harper.
But the Ipsos-Reid poll showing a tie was the most recent, taken on Monday night after the opposition parties brought down the minority government in a confidence vote over Liberal corruption, triggering a January 23 election.
Taken for CanWest/Global News, the Ipsos-Reid poll put both leading parties at 31 percent, followed by the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) at 18 percent. A November 22-24 Ipsos poll put the Liberals ahead 34 percent to 30 percent.
In Quebec, the separatist Bloc Quebecois leads the Liberals by 58 percent to 24 percent. And in the key battleground of Ontario, the Conservatives narrowed the gap to a two-point deficit against the Liberals from 11 points six days earlier.
A Strategic Counsel poll, released in Tuesday's Globe and Mail, put the Liberals at 35 percent, the Conservatives at 29 percent and the NDP at 17 percent. In Quebec, the Bloc led the Liberals by 54 percent to 30 percent.
Ipsos surveyed 1,000 Canadians, a size considered accurate to within 3.1 points 19 times out of 20. Strategic Counsel surveyed 1,500 people, with a 2.5-point margin of error.
I Love the ending
On peut toujours rever!
To take the ending for another chapter,
all of Canada, except for Quebec, joins the US in time.
Quebec joins the French Republic as an overseas department.
And all of history is thereby made right.
I think the Conservatives, if they are to win really have to target Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland. If I am correct, each of these provinces have strong Conservative presenses in their provincial legislatures, yet it translates to very few number of Conservative PM's. The Conservatives look maxed out in the West, but also have a lot of ground to make up in Ontario. However, it sounds from your posts that the 21 Lib's from Quebec are in serious danger. But Could the NDP or the little ADQ take those seats instaed of the Bloc?
The Quebeckers sound like nothing so much as Democrats in long johns and warm woolens.
Might as well...there's quite a bit of Canadian coins in circulation down here.
Well, there are almost 8 weeks for the Conservatives to get their message out... maybe there's still hope.
That is correct mon ami
Not really.
The Bloc is on the rise in Quebec. The Liberal star has fallen, and the Bloc is feeling its oats. Most of the shift of seats is likely to be to them, from the Liberals.
Now, if enough seats shift to the Bloc, the Liberals may end up losing to the Conservatives, but nobody will have a majority government.
If the NDP sides with the Liberals to make a government to prevent a Conservative minority government, the only thing that could trump that would be a Conservative-Bloc government. For a lot of reasons that seems like an extremely unlikely result. But politics makes for strange bedfellows, and the Conservatives have a shot at keeping Quebec separatism under control if they give the Bloc command of key ministries. With Quebec, it's always a matter of making the bribe to stay sweet enough.
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