Posted on 11/15/2005 11:31:36 AM PST by beaureguard
Mary James, an empty-nester from Snellville, craves the in-town bustle. Michelle Forren is tired of planning life around rush hour in Duluth. And Louise Stewart is fed up with the Spanish-language business signs, backyard chickens and overcrowded homes in her Norcross-area neighborhood.
Though their reasons vary, all three women plan to join an emerging demographic: whites leaving Gwinnett County.
In what might surprise metro Atlantans who remember the nearly lily-white county of old, Gwinnett's non-Hispanic white population declined for the first time last year, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The drop of about 1,500 whites came even as Gwinnett, the state's perennial growth leader, added more than 27,000 residents.
One year doesn't make a trend. And some observers question the census estimates. But the figures offer more evidence that the number of whites is at the very least leveling off in Gwinnett, adding a new dimension to a lightning-fast demographic shift that has transformed a once-uniform suburb into what one Washington think tank called a "mini-Ellis Island."
One other indicator: White student enrollment in Gwinnett schools has declined in each of the past five years.
In some ways, Gwinnett is behaving like Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb and Fulton counties, whose non-Hispanic white populations have been dropping. But those counties aren't growing nearly as fast as Gwinnett.
Because thousands of whites still move to Gwinnett each year, the stagnating total suggests that many must be leaving, too, said Douglas C. Bachtel, a demographer at the University of Georgia. That matters because most of Gwinnett's longtime residents happen to be white. And communities can struggle when their most deeply rooted residents leave, Bachtel said. "These are the foot soldiers for your community associations — the chambers, the PTAs for the various self-help groups," he said.
James is one of those leaving, now that her three sons have graduated from high school. She and her husband want to leave Snellville for a place where they can stroll to shops, restaurants and museums. They put an offer on a house in the Oakhurst section of Decatur last week. "I'm ready for a new stage," James said. "I'm ready to break out and experience life without kids."
But residents such as Stewart say they're departing not because they've changed but because the community around them has. "I used to be able to have pleasant chats with neighbors, and now few speak English," said Stewart, who lives with her four dogs in the Rockborough North subdivision off Beaver Ruin Road. "It's a lonely feeling."
Stewart, who teaches English for speakers of other languages at Gwinnett Technical College, waved to a former student as she walked down the street she's called home for 25 years. "Are you still taking English classes?" Stewart shouted. The woman smiled and shook her head no. Stewart continued walking past yards sprouting satellite dishes and cactus plants. "Oh well," she said.
The number of Hispanics in Gwinnett is now more than 12 times what it was in 1990, according to the latest census estimates. The Asian population has increased more than sixfold. And the black population has grown sevenfold. Until recently, the white population was growing, too, just not as fast. The county is now 57 percent white, down from 90 percent in 1990.
Louise Radloff, a member of the Gwinnett County school board for more than 30 years, said the additions have enriched her district between Norcross and Lilburn. It's the subtractions that hurt. Many schools in the area are now less than 10 percent white.
"It's called white flight," Radloff said. "There is a perception that with the diversity, there is low-income and there is crime. We need to learn to cope with these issues and decide that all men are created equal."
Bart Lewis, chief of the research division at the Atlanta Regional Commission, said any "white flight" from Gwinnett is limited. It's a far cry, he said, from what happened a generation ago in parts of Atlanta and DeKalb County, where neighborhoods changed practically overnight as white families moved to outlying areas such as Gwinnett.
In fact, Lewis finds it hard to believe that the number of whites isn't still rising in Gwinnett. Accurate racial breakdowns are difficult to estimate, particularly at the county level, he said.
Lewis sees the shift in Gwinnett as driven more by economics than race, anyway. Lower-income families scouring metro Atlanta for an affordable house or apartment are landing in the aging neighborhoods of western Gwinnett. Most of them happen to be minorities, Lewis said.
"What I think you're really seeing is an evacuation of more-affluent households of one race replaced by less-affluent people of another race," he said.
Kay Kim, a real-estate agent whose 450 home sales were mostly in western Gwinnett last year, said many white sellers have complained to her about culture clash. Roughly 80 percent of her sellers last year were white, and 50 percent of the buyers were Latino, she said. Many of the departing families settled farther out in Gwinnett or in Hall, Forsyth and Jackson counties, Kim said.
The turnover has been largely concentrated in more-affordable neighborhoods around Duluth, Lilburn, Lawrenceville and Norcross, she said. Subdivisions where homes are priced above $200,000 tend to be more stable, Kim said.
William Frey, a demographer at the University of Michigan's Population Studies Center, said people leaving Gwinnett is nothing new. With no natural boundaries, metro Atlanta makes it easy for people to pull up the stakes and move farther out.
That tends to accelerate as an area gets more crowded, no matter the race of the newcomers, he said.
Gwinnett also is likely drawing a smaller share of the newcomers who traditionally settle on the edge of a given city. Those whites are driving the rapid growth in the exurbs of Forsyth, Henry and Cherokee counties, Frey said.
Folks such as Forren, the Duluth resident, prefer to live near wide-open spaces. Gridlock in Smyrna led Forren to Gwinnett 20 years ago. Now she and her husband are getting that cramped feeling again. They encounter so much traffic Friday evenings that it's hard to make it to a movie theater on time.
They've already staked out their second escape — to a patch of land in Cherokee County. Forren, 43, said she'll miss shopping at the new Korean market near her house and dining at her favorite Thai and Vietnamese restaurants. "I really like the different cultures," she said. "For me, it's just traffic."
The demographic shift is changing more than just the restaurants in the corner strip mall. Little-used softball diamonds at Lucky Shoals Park in Norcross were recently converted into soccer fields.
When pop star Marc Anthony performed at the Gwinnett Arena in September, he sang in Spanish, not English, the language he used onstage in Atlanta.
And officials who once expected to close schools around the aging neighborhoods of western Gwinnett are instead adding classrooms and English language teachers to accommodate the children of immigrants.
The changes have been slower to reach the county's elected offices, however. The County Commission and school board remain all white, for example. But that will change, too, predicts Bachtel, the University of Georgia demographer.
Gwinnett's business-friendly reputation should continue to attract immigrants and minorities, Bachtel said. "It doesn't matter who you are as long as you've come to work in Gwinnett," he said.
He pointed to Gwinnett schools as a bellwether. The number of white students has dropped by 6,366 since 2000, even as overall enrollment has swelled by 34,552 students, according to figures provided by Sloan Roach, Gwinnett schools spokeswoman. The schools became "majority minority" in January 2004.
It's a threshold that Gwinnett — and eventually the nation — is expected to cross as well. Some white families will embrace those changes. Others won't, Bachtel said. "That big number of white folks leaving," he said, "I think that's a harbinger of things to come."
Bachtel reiterated the point Monday during a video presentation to the county commissioners, telling them to prepare for the trend to accelerate.
County Commissioner Lorraine Green pointed out that some of the drop in white student enrollment could be because of the growth of private schools in the county. But she does think Gwinnett officials should make it easier for longtime residents — most of whom happen to be white — to stay.
Providing more housing for empty-nesters, seniors and young singles would add stability, Green said. And she sees those options coming to western Gwinnett, the very spot that has experienced an exodus of longtime residents. Green wants to allow high-rise condos that could anchor walkable mixed-use projects in designated areas.
"That way, people do not have to leave Gwinnett County when they reach that next stage in life," Green said. "I don't think people have left because they say 'Oh my God, I don't love Gwinnett County anymore.' "
Correct. Both when I lived in the Bronx and in Brooklyn, I saw people who drove brand new, pimped out SUVs, using EBT/Food Stamp card when they went to the supermarket.
"What do they call it when Latinos flee an area? Hispanic Panic?"
Migration of workers doing jobs Americans don't want to do
What you described sounds familiar. I live in a small neighborhood that is nestled between a huge cemetery, a large hospital and the commercial zones of an in-city highway. We have condos, the apartments i live in, another apt building that is nearly complete and an 'assisted housing' complex.
This is Seattle, so maybe the problems aren't AS bad, but what problems this neighborhood does have (aside from an occasional party where someone talks loud in the parking lot after leaving) come from that low income housing.
Just the other day I had to tell these girls to move from the drive-way of the parking lot not only because it was dangerous but they were jumping rope and making noise. And I had 10 year old girls trying to defend their actions and talking back (saying people from our complex go over there, LOL.) MOVE!
All during the summer I had to eject them for coming into the pool and making a large amount of noise while being there. Once should have been enough, but you have to threaten them with the police to get them to stop. At least that is somewhat minor in comparison.
We had a shootout on that street between two people and have had other incidents, like one where police blocked off the road and were searching for a suspect who'd attempted to hit a cop with his car.
The sad part is, people DO work there (there is a max income but also a minimum) and most of the noise you hear from there is just kids playing outside.
But while the degree of our problems is small in comparison, it just gives you an idea of how bad it must be in the rest of the country.
"The gang activity is frightening, the shootings are happening on a regular basis now, it's downright scary."
How many shootings are you talking about? Violent crime is DOWN sharply in California, compared to the 1990s and 1980s.
They're already there, I'm afraid. But for illegals, they're the "good" type - hard working and contructive. Besides, we already had some "white trash." A few illegals won't make much of a difference.
Yet.
Do you live by the Yesler Projects?
How many? I don't count them, but I read about them on a weekly basis, along with knife attacks, wife beatings, robberies, carjacking, child molesting, hit and run, car chases, you name it, and in the L.A. and Orange County areas most of the perpetrators listed in the local newspapers have hispanic names.
If you think violent crime is "sharply down", you don't live in southern California.
No, I'm in North Seattle. This place isn't terrible, it's just that what problems the area has had seem to come from there. I'm interested in seeing who moves into the new apartment building.
"If you think violent crime is "sharply down", you don't live in southern California."
Actually, I do. Crime's been trending down since the 1980s, and the trend is continuing downward. What IS up is the coverage.
The change in demographics has been pretty startling out here, but it dosen't even hold a candle to Gwinnett.
Utah and Idaho seem nice...8^)
I'm happy for you that you actually believe that. My personal observations differ.
Hispanic Panic?
Spanish vanish?
Spanish fly..
ROTF!
"I'm happy for you that you actually believe that."
I'm going by FBI crime statistics; what's your source?
"My personal observations differ."
Ah, question answered. You are confusing your particular experience--filtered through your worldview and what you choose to pay attention to--with general reality.
Actually, murder rates in the LA area were much worse in the crack wars of the 1980s and early 1990s. Other crimes may be a different story. Lets also not forget that ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is a CRIME itself.
I don't have much faith in "FBI crime statistics" when the subject is illegal immigration. We'll just have to agree to disagree, the American way.
Nasty stuff! Those wars are still going on. San Bernardino County is meth heaven now. The way those tweakers live is beyond belief, and that community of tweakers is definitely diversified! I feel so sorry for their kids who they're raising in that environment.
San Berdoo was biker gang and meth land back when my uncle was working there in the 1970s. Why would anyone want to live in the Inland Empire anyway? Its not like the quality of life is really any better than LA or Orange Counties.
Several others have answered your question; 15 to 35 miles from Five Points (downtown Atlanta) is the approximate range. But the distance from downtown is pretty much a moot point; few in Gwinnett, and fewer still who have moved farther out, work or shop in downtown or midtown Atlanta. In fact, many rarely venture inside I-285 for any reason. Increasingly, metro Atlantans commute suburb-to-suburb. The more salient measurement is the distance of Gwinnett from the I-285 beltline: about 2 miles at the closest approach, 20-something at Gwinnett's farthest reaches.
Fascinating article, Beau; thanks for posting it. What's really mostly going on here is the continued explosive growth of the Atlanta metro area. What was rural 10 years ago is now exurban; what was exurban is now suburban; what was suburban is now urban. It's happening everywhere (particularly in the faster growing, and fortunately mostly "red" states), but it's especially startling in the Atlanta area. Wasn't it just yesterday that people questioned the sanity of the developers of Gwinnett Place Mall, so far out in the boonies?
I live in Cobb. I can drive to downtown Atlanta in about 20 minutes, in non-rush hours. I love Cobb county. Our area is safe and clean, and our city runs its own schools, which are outstanding.
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