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Posted on 11/11/2005 9:03:44 PM PST by NormsRevenge
BERLIN (Reuters) - Why has Osama bin Laden gone silent?
While his lieutenant in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has not only stepped up the insurgency there but also claimed responsibility for three suicide bombs in Jordan this week, the al Qaeda leader has released no audio message since last December and has not been seen on video for over a year.
Bin Laden's longest public silence since the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 is unlikely to be because he has suddenly gone shy, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld remarked ironically to German magazine Der Spiegel last month.
Intelligence officials and security analysts see two explanations -- that bin Laden is so tightly holed up that he cannot smuggle out messages, or that he is biding his time and preparing a major announcement.
"Some of the means he had to communicate have dried up," said a U.S. counter-terrorism official, who declined to elaborate. "He's isolated, and has difficulty communicating."
He described this as an impediment to al Qaeda's propaganda. Western intelligence officials say such messages, usually shown on Arab television channels such as al Jazeeera, have a significant mobilizing impact on potential followers.
NEW MOUTHPIECE
In the absence of new material from bin Laden, widely believed to be hiding in inaccessible mountain terrain between Pakistan and Afghanistan, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri has become the chief mouthpiece of the al Qaeda leadership, issuing one audio and five video tapes since the start of this year.
"We have no indications (bin Laden) is no longer alive. We haven't seen any messages from bin Laden but we have seen messages from Zawahri," German foreign intelligence chief August Hanning told reporters this week.
"I believe this whole communications channel that was built up in Pakistan by the al Qaeda structure is still quite effective and is functioning well."
That may suggest that Zawahri and bin Laden are hiding at separate locations, said Mustafi Alani, a security analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai.
Or it could be that bin Laden has deliberately delegated communications to his deputy in order to maximize the dramatic impact of his own rare appearances, like his video message just before last year's U.S. presidential election.
According to this theory, "Osama bin Laden will appear when there is a major, major operation again ... This will have maximum publicity," Alani said.
"This will give the impression there is some sort of structure still functioning within al Qaeda, that the leader will only appear when there is something very important, but the day-to-day dealing with the media is left to somebody else."
DIFFERENCES WITH ZARQAWI?
Alani noted it was also Zawahri, not bin Laden, who in July purportedly wrote a long letter to Zarqawi which was intercepted by the United States and cited by Washington as evidence of splits between Zarqawi and the al Qaeda leadership.
The letter questioned some of Zarqawi's tactics, including attacks on Shi'ite Muslims and the beheading of hostages, although it also thanked him for his "heroic acts" and invoked blessings on him.
Zarqawi -- whose group denied the authenticity of the letter -- has not only cemented his reputation as al Qaeda's most ruthless and successful field commander in Iraq, but also struck in his native Jordan this week with the suicide bombings of three Amman hotels in which at least 56 people were killed.
German spy chief Hanning said Zarqawi's highly visible campaign in Iraq and beyond was increasingly making him a model for militants in Europe as well as across the Middle East.
But Alani said there was no prospect of Zarqawi supplanting bin Laden in influence.
"He cannot compete with Osama bin Laden. Osama bin Laden is too big, too important ... When you say al Qaeda, inevitably people link it to Osama bin Laden and this sort of position will not be filled by a field commander like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi."
While Zarqawi is the movement's top operational figure, Alani said bin Laden had long since assumed a mainly symbolic role as the original al Qaeda has become more fragmented and diffuse, with scattered groups and cells looking to him as a spiritual mentor.
"The question of whether he is in the public eye or not apparently has minimal impact on operations," he said.
"Al Qaeda has passed this stage. Al Qaeda can really operate without a bin Laden, without Afghanistan as a base and without a headquarters, command and control ... Now we have al Qaedas, rather than al Qaeda."
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Maybe OBL doesn't want to "micro-manage"?
Saudi-born Osama bin Laden is seen in Afghanistan in this May 26, 1998 file photo. Why has Osama bin Laden gone silent? While his lieutenant in Iraq has claimed responsibility for three suicide bombs in Jordan this week, the al Qaeda leader has released no audio message since last December and has not been seen on video for over a year. (Stringer/Reuters)
The AQ leaders hide and have to send out videotapes.
Bush and Blair go out in the public, travel the world, and speak at their own leisure.
Bin Laden is hiding in a cave in the middle of nowhere if he isn't head already. In terms of being a force for world terrorism, Bin Laden took himself out of the running, because he is a coward and cares more about his own live then the so called 'cause'.
dead already
Maybe Zarqawi doesn't exist? We have never seen his face on video.
It's already been a year FoR Arafat too.
Maybe Zarqawi doesn't exist? We have never seen his face on video.
Osama bin Laden builds day care centers Patty Murray (D WA)
"Why has Osama bin Laden gone silent?"
Because dead men tell no tales.
"Some of the means he had to communicate have dried up," said a U.S. counter-terrorism official, who declined to elaborate. "He's isolated, and has difficulty communicating."
Wonder if he could be on one of those "secret prisons". Wouldn't that be a hoot!
Bin Laden is dead.
His DNA is is a dried up spot on the floor of a cave.
I hope OBL is taking the long dirt nap.
From the article: "While his lieutenant in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has not only stepped up the insurgency there but also claimed responsibility for three suicide bombs in Jordan this week, the al Qaeda leader has released no audio message since last December and has not been seen on video for over a year. "
Clearly you haven't seen the video from his time in Afghanistan.
In fact the DoD has a massive amount of info about Zarqawi including pictures and video that haven't been released that they got off his laptop.
Anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan speaks to a filled room at the University of Massachusetts student union ballroom Friday, Nov. 11, 2005 in Amherst, Mass. Sheehan was part of a program entitled 'Eyes Open Wide for Veterans Day,' on the campus. Speakers included three families from Massachusetts who have sons in the military or who have lost a family member in the Iraq war and through suicide following release from serving in Iraq. (AP Photo/Nancy Palmieri)
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