Posted on 11/04/2005 7:09:22 PM PST by caryatid
The gubernatorial election Tuesday in Virginia is as much about Gov. Mark Warner and U.S. Sen. George Allen as it is about the candidates.
A win by Republican Jerry W. Kilgore would help top supporter Mr. Allen, a Virginia Republican who faces re-election next year.
A win for Democrat Timothy M. Kaine would further the presidential ambitions of Mr. Warner, a Democrat.
Mr. Kilgore and Mr. Kaine remain very close in the polls. A statewide Rasmussen Reports survey released yesterday to The Washington Times showed Mr. Kaine with a three percentage point lead, a one-point increase since the firm's Oct. 27 poll.
The margin of error is three points, so the candidates remain deadlocked.
With the race so tight, the four men will remain on the campaign trail into the final weekend.
Though the results Tuesday will neither make nor break Mr. Allen or Mr. Warner, either would indeed profit from a party victory, said Toni-Michelle Travis, professor of government and politics at George Mason University.
"A Kaine win gives Warner a platform to say his ideas were the direction Virginia should be going in," she said. "The stakes are higher for Warner because he has no other experience."
Prior to being elected governor, Mr. Warner, a telecommunications mogul, had never held political office.
Mr. Allen, who also has presidential ambitions, will be at Mr. Kilgore's side for at least five get-out-the-vote rallies today and tomorrow.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
Can any knowledgeable person tell me whether Kilgore can still pull out a win -- and if so, why?
I am far more worried about Warner running for pres than Hillary.
Nobody knows, but I would be somewhat surprised if Kilgore wins. My guess is that there will be a heavy anti Bush turnout in Fairfax County and environs, and down around the Norfolk area. Kilgore has the advantage that the state still has a slight GOP bias, and Kaine is a bit left of center for the state, but Kaine is the more articulate and competent candidate. In the one debate I saw, Kaine made the superior presentation to me.
He certainly can, because in the last several elections Republican candidates for Va. Governor always outperformed their polls. The state has a Republican lean and a strong Republican GOTV.
You have to say that Kaine has the edge right now, but it's an extremely narrow one.
You're joking, right?
From what I've seen, Kilgore hasn't run the best campaign.
Though, if Allen wants to run for President and actually wins the nomination, not sure he will win yet, a Republican Governor is key.
This said, I think the best reason to vote for Kilgore is to hurt Warner. Yes, count me as one of those that doesn't see Hillary as a guarentee. The Dems that win office are from the South. Northeasterners have hadn't a victory since Kennedy, who had a questionable first race against Nixon.
The Democrats will select their next nominee on one or two reasonings. Perceived Electability, or Far left OUT and proud Leftist. IMO, Hillary is neither. She's certainly Left, but she is afraid to announce it. her electability is questionable with the baggage of her past.
It should be about issues.
Kaine is left on taxes, abortion, guns, affirmative action, death penalty, business.
Kaine is a radical leftist. He might be an articulate Ted Kennedy clone but his politics still suck.
Kaine also supports illegals getting in state tuition and illegal labor sites.
I've been working on the GOTV campaign and the Republican organization here is a machine. They will contact all 36,000 Republican households in my county before the election and they are well on their way. Kaine is strong in two NOVA counties Arlington and Fairfax. (After living here for 5 years I find that the influence from these areas is kind of overated and filled with self important people. If Kilgore pulls 30% of the vote in those two counties he will hurt Kaine bad) Kilgore has enormous support in SW VA which was critical to Warner's victory last time. Kaine doesn't have it there and that will be the difference.
He also supports universal state subsidized nursury schools, a really dumb idea. But that is basically noise. Among other things, the voters know that none of his left turns will be enacted into law.
Sincere wishes you pull this off. More so, because the Left is using a race like this....or the one with Hackett in OH...to attempt to construct a winning model for their '08 race in "conservative" leaning states.
Thanks. Republican discontent is not that high from what we've seen so far. In fact it is quite minimal. The base is fired up and ready to vote. The NOVA counties of Loudon, Fauqier, Prince William and Warren are strong GOP counties have the votes to cancel Arlington, Alexandria Fairfax and that is one of the areas where the GOTV is very strong. Kilgore will get conservative Dem support especially in SW VA. The southern parts of the state despise the liberals in the DC corridor and love to show them whose boss. If the Republicans show up in force Kaine is a dead duck.
Fairtax is overated. My county of Prince William alone can cancel them out. We have 60% Republican voters and Bush got 74% of the vote on his relection and our GOTV effort is in full gear. Jerry is polling at 37-43% in Faifax now and we are working it hard.
Bush Kerry Bush Kerry
Prince William 132,063 52.84% 46.40% 69,776 61,271
Not with what our internals are telling us.
Prince William loves Kilgore more than Bush 2004 eh? We shall see.
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