Nobody knows, but I would be somewhat surprised if Kilgore wins. My guess is that there will be a heavy anti Bush turnout in Fairfax County and environs, and down around the Norfolk area. Kilgore has the advantage that the state still has a slight GOP bias, and Kaine is a bit left of center for the state, but Kaine is the more articulate and competent candidate. In the one debate I saw, Kaine made the superior presentation to me.
It should be about issues.
Kaine is left on taxes, abortion, guns, affirmative action, death penalty, business.
Kaine is a radical leftist. He might be an articulate Ted Kennedy clone but his politics still suck.
Kaine also supports illegals getting in state tuition and illegal labor sites.
From what you've written, it sounds like the race is all but over.
Has Kilgore pounded on immigration? With any effect?