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Posted on 11/03/2005 4:31:11 PM PST by new yorker 77
Party Indetification: For the respondents asked later in the survey, the results were 38% Republican, 50% Democrat.
(Excerpt) Read more at ipsos-na.com ...
I don't trust polls, and this is one of the main reasons.
Reminds me of the exit polls last November, when Kerry was supposed to be the winner! Still laughing about that one!
Ever since polls were showing high numbers during Clintoon impeachment, I have never believed a single poll. I know how it all depends how you phrase the question, how you sample, and other techniques, will get you any answer you want. I do not believe the polls today on support for the war on terror or the low numbers approving GWB.
The AP is way over the line to the left. It seems that no one ever points that out, as they do with the alphabet and masthead news outlets.
MSM credibility in the crapper. Just needs someone to pull the lever.
Sometimes they weigh the numbers based on how people self identify in the poll questions.
So say in 2004 35% self identify as dems, 35% self identify as GOP, and 30% Independent and everything else.
Say a year later 45% self identify as dems, 25% self identify as GOP, and 30%
The distributions are fluid - folks around here forget that sometimes.
That being said, that spread you describe sounds odd.
Not only is it an oversample over Democrats.
19% of the poll are of non-registered voters.
80% are Registered voters.
40% of registered voters will vote in mid-term elections.
40% of 80 is 32.
Only 32% of the Oversampled Democrat Poll will vote in 2006.
68% WILL NOT VOTE.
It's garbage.
12% IND are just DUmocrats who won't admit it.
CBS poll isno better. From NRO
http://corner.nationalreview.com/
NOT SO FAST, CBS [Peter Robinson]
In a new poll, CBS has discovered that the President's approval rating has fallen to 35 percent. Examining the data, Dartmouth's Joe Malchow has in turn announced that the CBS poll is virtually worthless. How come? Whereas 25 percent of the respondents were Republicans, 35 percent were Democrats.
Memo to Sean McManus, new president of CBS News: If this is the way you intend to re-establish your network's credibility, save yourself a lot of trouble and simply re-hire Dan Rather.
Brit Hume mentioned that not only did they over sample the Democrats, but they also weighted the poll, making the effective percentage of Republicans, 24%.
I trust polls down by good pollsters - such as Gallup. I don't trust the AP as far as I could throw them.
There is no giant shift in party preference.
There is a giant shift in polling sampling.
If you don't like what Republicans think, don't poll them.
That's dishonest.
Republicans may disappear in FAKE POLLS, but we do not disappear when go to the ballot box.
Jayson Blair is pulling double duty for the AP-Ipsos and CBS.
This is news? Sorta like "dog bites man". :)
Good ole Brit Hume.
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Where would the DUmocrats be without a bit of fraud here and there?
These news organizations are an absolute disgrace.
Clinton had 65% Job Approval in a year where he received 49% of the vote.
Rasmussen had Bush at 52% among likely voters, he got 51% of the vote.
Polling firms lied about Bush during bad news cycles like around Abu Grab Newsweek, The NY Slimes had Bush at 41% among likely voters, 38% among national adults. All lies.
I don't buy the poll, but I am just reminding you that they go by party self-identification now and then.
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