LA Times polls show only one measure clearly ahead (Prop 73)

ap on Bakersfield Californian ^ | 11/02/05 | AP

[NormsRevenge]

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Of the eight measures on the ballot for Tuesday's special election, voters appear to clearly favor only one, according to Los Angeles Times polls released this week.

Proposition 73, which would require parents or guardians be notified before girls 17 and younger receive abortions, was supported by 51 percent of voters surveyed, according to a Times poll released Wednesday. Thirty-nine percent were opposed and 10 percent were undecided, according to the poll.

The survey, released Wednesday, questioned voters on Propositions 73, 78, 79 and 80 - the four measures Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has not campaigned for.

A Times poll released Tuesday showed three of the four propositions Schwarzenegger supports trailing among likely voters, with the fourth about dead even. That poll of 940 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points

The poll released Wednesday also surveyed 940 likely voters between Oct. 26 and Monday. A split sample was used so roughly half the interviewees were asked about two propositions while the other half were asked about the other two. The margin of error for each split sample was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Proposition 79, which would require pharmaceutical companies to discount drugs for uninsured Californians, was opposed by 47 percent, while 30 percent were in favor and 23 percent undecided. Proposition 78, which would make such a discount voluntary, was a tossup, with 43 percent opposed and 38 percent in favor, numbers within the margin of error.

Proposition 80, which would re-regulate energy producers and limit customers' ability to switch companies, was opposed by 48 percent, with 25 percent in favor and 27 percent undecided.

The poll released Tuesday surveyed voters on Propositions 74, 75, 76 and 77.

Proposition 74, which would increase the probationary period for public school teachers and make it easier to fire veteran teachers, was a tossup, opposed by 47 percent of voters with 45 percent in favor, also within the margin of error.

Proposition 75, which would restrict the use of union dues for political purposes, was trailing, with 51 percent opposed and 40 percent in favor.

Proposition 76 was trailing, with 60 percent opposed and 31 percent in favor, and Proposition 77 was doing almost as poorly, with 56 percent opposed and 34 percent in favor.

Proposition 76 would impose a cap on state spending and give the governor powers to cut funding without legislative approval. Proposition 77 would strip the Legislature of its authority for drawing congressional and legislative districts.

[Kay]

The Hoover Institute's poll from a few days ago was quite different.

[DoughtyOne]

I'd give the measures at least ten points against an LA Times pole. I've seen the poll be off by as much as 17% before election day. We'll see.

[Carry_Okie]

Prop. 73 isn't one of "Arnold's propositions."

[NormsRevenge]

LA Times article and poll results

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-poll3nov03,0,3345748.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[NormsRevenge]

The polls have been all over the place..

[indianrightwinger]

I am one of those unfortunate CA resident. I am rooting for at least a majority of Arnold's propositions to pass. Otherwise, CA will soon be France/Germany.

[goldstategop]

I have a hunch 73 and 75 will pass. 74, 76, 77, 78, 79 and 80 will go down in flames. Just my 2 cents worth.

("Denny Crane: Gun Control? For Communists. She's a liberal. Can't hunt.")

[calcowgirl]

	LAT	Field	Field	SHKN	PPIC	SHKN	S-USA	S-USA	PPIC	Field	PPIC	Field
	11/01-02	11/01-02(2)	11/01-02(1)	10/31	10/28	10/17	10/18	10/03	09/29	09/05-06	08/25	06/23
Proposition 73
Support	51	41	45	58	42	54	60	59	n/a	45	44	48
Oppose	39	45	43	42	49	46	38	39	n/a	45	48	43
Don't Know	10	10	12	--	--	--	2	2	n/a	10	8	9
Proposition 74
Support	45	44	44	53	46	49	53	55	43	46	49	61
Oppose	47	50	47	47	48	51	45	44	47	37	42	32
Don't Know	8	6	9	--	--	--	1	2	10	17	9	7
Proposition 75
Support	40	40	44	64	46	70	56	60	n/a	55	58	57
Oppose	51	50	42	36	46	30	42	37	n/a	32	33	34
Don't Know	9	10	11	--	--	--	2	3	n/a	13	9	9
Proposition 76
Support	31	32	28	45	30	30	54	58	26	19	28	35
Oppose	60	60	60	55	62	70	41	36	63	65	61	42
Don't Know	9	8	12	--	8	--	5	6	11	16	11	23
Proposition 77
Support	34	35	38	55	36	50	54	59	33	32	34	32
Oppose	56	51	41	45	50	50	41	36	50	46	49	46
Don't Know	10	14	21	--	14	--	5	5	17	22	17	19
Proposition 78
Support	38	36	39	51	n/a	59	n/a	n/a	43	49	n/a	57
Oppose	43	45	38	49	n/a	41	n/a	n/a	38	31	n/a	26
Don't Know	19	19	23	--	n/a	--	n/a	n/a	19	20	n/a	17
Proposition 79
Support	30	37	37	50	n/a	58	n/a	n/a	34	42	n/a	48
Oppose	47	43	39	50	n/a	42	n/a	n/a	40	34	n/a	33
Don't Know	23	20	24	--	n/a	--	n/a	n/a	26	24	n/a	19
Proposition 80
Support	25	24	22	46	n/a	37	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Oppose	48	48	48	54	n/a	63	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Don't Know	27	28	30	--	n/a	--	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

[NormsRevenge]

Thanks!

and G'
Nite!

[calcowgirl]

It will be interesting to see which polls, if any, come anywhere near close to the actual outcome.

gnite!

[FOG724]

Proposition 76 was trailing, with 60 percent opposed and 31 percent in favor

Dare we hope?

[calcowgirl]

Time will tell. In the meantime, I plan on being at the polling place early on Nov 8.

[FOG724]

I've sent your conservative argument post to other voters.

[chuckles]

In a republic, the voters elect their reps to make laws that are good for everybody, not just special interest groups. The laws should be made, then enforced. This direct democracy thingy going on in California is more or less mob rule. Having every whim come up for a vote leans toward inconsistency and chaos. What if a minority shows up for one of these prop votes. There is no telling what could get passed for majority rule.

Colorado just got through voting to let the state keep the excess tax receipts because they felt sorry for them. A few years ago they were angry that the state was keeping money they didn't need.

Just exactly what are our paid reps paid to do, punt to the voters when they can't make up their minds? Most of the voters get their info from MTV. What a mess.

[CheyennePress]

How on earth could this not pass?

[FOG724]

76 is not a good Prop. I am voting against it as are many conservatives. Calcowgirl had a great conservative argument against it.

[goldstategop]

Listen, there's not just an appetite right now in this country to restrain spending. Colorado just scuttled TABOR. California voters have no enthusiasm for cutting spending. We may face tax increases in the future but at least we'll be paying our bills. We won't do that if we keep on servicing the debt. So voters in a perverse way may be more conservative than the political establishment!

("Denny Crane: Gun Control? For Communists. She's a liberal. Can't hunt.")

[FOG724]

California voters have no enthusiasm for cutting spending.

Actually they do. They keep voting for things the Gov says will reduce spending and yet he increases the debt and bond use. Hopefully this time they won't buy into his lies.

[calcowgirl]

How on earth could this not pass?

If you read the fine print, you will find that the only reason they need Prop 76 is to authorize the new bonds, defer more expense, and lock in the debt service payments (to allow new infrastructure bonds). You can find my write-up referred to by FOG724 at the link below. It covers much of that:

Proposition 76 - A Conservative Argument for Voting "NO"

Prop 76 also does little to control spending, as evidenced by statements of the campaign chairman (Tom Campbell):

"The key is not to crank government spending down," said Tom Campbell, Schwarzenegger's former finance director, who left the post to campaign for the initiative. "It's just to spend no more than we have."
San Diego Union-Tribune, October 21, 2005

But Campbell said he has looked forward starting in 2006, which is when the measure would take effect, and doesn't believe that the cap would have an impact on state spending until 2013. "That's because we start with three good years of revenue behind us," he said. "It completely depends on what year you start."
San Francisco Chronicle, October 22, 2005

Prop 76 proponents argue that the governor needs new tools for mid-year corrections. But there already is a process for mid-year course corrections. It was just sold to us as part of Prop 58. If revenues aren't coming in as expected, the legislature must act to make the proper corrections. If they don't act within the specified period, the legislature is, in effect, shut down until they do. This initiative wants to bypass the legislature and its appropriation responsibility, instead giving sole responsibility to the Governor for making budget adjustments. [Warning--the governor will not always have an (R) by their name.] From the LAO Analysis of Prop 58:

Mid-Year Adjustments. Under this measure, if the Governor determines that the state is facing substantial revenue shortfalls or spending deficiencies, the Governor may declare a fiscal emergency. He or she would then be required to propose legislation to address the problem, and call the Legislature into special session for that purpose. If the Legislature fails to pass and send to the Governor legislation to address the budget problem within 45 days, it would be prohibited from (1) acting on any other bills or (2) adjourning in joint recess until such legislation is passed.