Posted on 11/02/2005 9:12:05 PM PST by neverdem
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2 - An outbreak of the avian flu virus in the United States could infect one-third of the population and kill as many as 1.9 million people, according to an analysis by the federal government released today.
The report, by the United States Department of Health and Human Services, said that banning large gatherings and imposing quarantines would likely be necessary in order to contain the spread of the H5N1 avian influenza virus if it mutated into a form easily spread by human-to-human contact.
There have been no reported cases of the virus being spread between humans.
The government analysis released today was part of a plan, broadly outlined by President Bush on Tuesday, to confront threats from new outbreaks of flu. The analysis was based on previous flu pandemics in the United States in 1918, 1957 and 1968.
"When a pandemic virus strain emerges, 25 percent to 30 percent of the population could develop the clinical disease and a substantial fraction of those individuals could die," the report stated. "The resources required for such a vigorous containment would almost certainly exceed those available in the affected communities."
The government analysis found that 40 percent of school age children could become sick with the virus, and between 865,000 and 9.9 million people would require hospitalizations - depending on its severity - a number that would threaten to overwhelm the hospital system.
The virus would affect a community for six to eight weeks and likely come in two different waves.
The report warned, however ,that because such viruses quickly mutate, they are difficult to predict.
"The scope and pace of an influenza pandemic may defy accurate prediction," the report said.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
raise taxes, raise gov't
more doom and gloom
more taxes, more government
Yes ...that one....the one that shut down R&D into vaccines and reduced the number of vaccine companies in US from 37 to 3.
Yeah....the birds are coming home to roost now....(no pun intended).
Arkancide for the masses courtesy of Hillary Clinton
All at the same time, with phenominal deaths and destruction, for prolonged periods of time, and in spades the earth over? Never, that I know of.
But when you take that Biblical statement on the end times by Jesus and couple it with this one in 2 Timothy chap. 3, it makes you sit up and take notice.
"But understand this, that in the last days there will come times of stress. For men will be lovers of self, lovers of money, proud, arrogant, abusive, disobedient to their parents, ungrateful, unholy, inhuman, implacable, slanderers, profligates, fierce, haters of good, treacherous, reckless, swollen with conceit, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, holding the form of religion but denying the power of it---- so these men also oppose the truth, men of corrupt mind and counterfeit faith;" (2Tim ch 3)
I think there may be more than just a superficial concern
http://www.lifeethics.org/www.lifeethics.org/2005/11/thousands-receive-fake-flu-shots.html
I looked up the top 10 things that kill Americans a few years ago and was surprised to see that the flu was something like #6 after heart disease, stroke, cancer, accidents, and diabetes. Lots of people die from the flu virus every year and have for years.
All at the same time, with phenominal deaths and destruction, for prolonged periods of time, and in spades the earth over? Never, that I know of.
Then you need to read more history.
Considering how the MSM loves to scare us sheeples, I'm filing this one with Y2K until something in the realm of reality occurs.
LOL, If it's passed from feathers and bird excrement can you imagine how it would then pass from human to human !!!
There have been over 350,000 deaths from just two recent events, the Indonesian tsunami and the Pakistan earthquake. This does not include the approx. 50,000 deaths in Iran from two recent earthquakes, the recent hurricanes, volcanos, famines and raging wars in Africa. Nor does it include the estimated millions of deaths worldwide from AIDS, (especially in Africa), over the last decade.
And you can't deny that today mankind has the power to destroy the world all by ourselves with warfare, which makes Biblical prophesy nothing to snicker at.
Uh, no, they are not. The recent hurricanes are part of a cycle meteorologists have warned us about for decades. Climate change is not driving the disasters. And geologicial disturbances are now fairly predictable in severity, if not when they will actually occur.
and you can't deny their frequency and record-breaking severity.
Uh, yes, I can. We had frequent hurricanes in the 1940s and 1950s. And have had horrific earthquakes in the past.
What makes these events more catastrophic nowadays is the signficant increase in the number of people living in hazardous areas.
Uh, no, they are not. The recent hurricanes are part of a cycle meteorologists have warned us about for decades.
Nobody knows when the end times will come, or that if the recent spate of natural disasters are fulfilling biblical prophesy, but your replies are PURE b.s. There have been no 'decades of warning' by meteorologists; in fact, other than the el nino factor, (and those who blame 'global warming' and Bush), science has no answers.
"Hurricanes are increasing. According to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the period between 1970 to 1994 saw on average about 9 tropical storms in the Atlantic basin, with about 7 of those turning into hurricanes. From 1995 to 2004, that number jumped to 14 tropical storms and 12 hurricanes. 2005 is likely to surpass them all, said Kevin Trenberth, the head of climate analysis at NCAR. By several measures, this will end up being the most active storm season on record, it's not just number but also how intense they are," Trenberth said. ('MSNBC Technology & Science', Oct 10, 2005).
"Wilma's arrival in Florida came five days after it astounded forecasters with terrifying Category 5 winds of 175 mph. At one point, it was the most intense storm -- on record in the Atlantic basin". (AP, Oct 25, 2005)
Right, and pigs fly.
"We are quite good at identifying where large earthquakes are likely to occur on time scales of several decades to centuries, but are still unable to identify regions where earthquakes will happen tomorrow, next week, or even within the next few years". (Susan E. Hough, seismologist, Geotimes, March 2005).
"Prediction is an area of frustration to seismologists. Our inability to predict events, after all, can lead to future disasters,--- predicting exactly when and where an earthquake will strike remains an elusive beast".., (Susan E. Hough, seismologist, writing for Geotimes, March, 2005)
"Earthquakes struck Japan's island of Honshu this weekend. Had these events occurred on the other side of the Pacific "Ring of Fire," they would have fulfilled a forecast by a team of seismologists---- Vladimir Keilis-Borok and his co-workers (stated) 'Our team always expected from the start that some of our predictions would be false alarms;-- If we made no mistakes, it would mean the problem is easy; and IT IS NOT EASY, TO PUT IT MILDLY." Keilis Borok, seismologist, Geotimes, Sept. 7, 2004)
"Uh, yes, I can. We had frequent hurricanes in the 1940s and 1950s. And have had horrific earthquakes in the past."
"Hurricane Wilma, the 21st storm in the busiest hurricane season on record, (AP, Oct. 24, 2005)
"(Hurricane) Wilma has increased in both wind speed and intensity so much that it has gone from a Category 1 to a Category 5 Hurricane in less than 24 hours, breaking another record this hurricane season..." (American Red Cross, Oct. 19, 2005).
In the last ten years there have been over 400,000 deaths from earthquakes and quake-induced tsunamis; and 300,000 of these deaths have come in the past one year.
Everyone is free to think what they may about these recent, record-breaking, phenomenal disasters, but why try to claim that science understands them and is on top of it all while they're standing around scratching their scrotums with their left hand and holding thier fingers up to the wind with their right one?
Actually I can. We've only developed the technology to track these disturbances at a detailed level (establishing a set of metrics to measure and compare hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, etc) and maintained accurate records within the last 100 years. 200 years ago, if an earthquake wiped out 50,000 people in the Mountaingoatistan, Farmer George in Virginia would never know about it. Now thanks to worldwide telecommunications, everyone knows everything happening everywhere within moments of it happening. A natural disaster that kills a couple thousand people today would have killed 10 times more in that region 200 years ago.
And you can't deny that today mankind has the power to destroy the world all by ourselves with warfare, which makes Biblical prophesy nothing to snicker at.
That I totally agree with. Our ability to destroy ourselves is unprecedented in history and that alone creeps me out.
BTW, I've read that book (Pessimists Guide to History) and it is fascinating. I recommend it (it's a good bathroom book).
Possiblec FAR SIDE caption:
"While the world mobilized all its medical resources to stop the avian flu, snail ebola continues its relentless crawl."
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