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Report Says Avian Flu Outbreak Could Kill Up to 1.9 Million People
NY Times ^ | November 2, 2005 | GARDINER HARRIS and TIMOTHY WILLIAMS

Posted on 11/02/2005 9:12:05 PM PST by neverdem

WASHINGTON, Nov. 2 - An outbreak of the avian flu virus in the United States could infect one-third of the population and kill as many as 1.9 million people, according to an analysis by the federal government released today.

The report, by the United States Department of Health and Human Services, said that banning large gatherings and imposing quarantines would likely be necessary in order to contain the spread of the H5N1 avian influenza virus if it mutated into a form easily spread by human-to-human contact.

There have been no reported cases of the virus being spread between humans.

The government analysis released today was part of a plan, broadly outlined by President Bush on Tuesday, to confront threats from new outbreaks of flu. The analysis was based on previous flu pandemics in the United States in 1918, 1957 and 1968.

"When a pandemic virus strain emerges, 25 percent to 30 percent of the population could develop the clinical disease and a substantial fraction of those individuals could die," the report stated. "The resources required for such a vigorous containment would almost certainly exceed those available in the affected communities."

The government analysis found that 40 percent of school age children could become sick with the virus, and between 865,000 and 9.9 million people would require hospitalizations - depending on its severity - a number that would threaten to overwhelm the hospital system.

The virus would affect a community for six to eight weeks and likely come in two different waves.

The report warned, however ,that because such viruses quickly mutate, they are difficult to predict.

"The scope and pace of an influenza pandemic may defy accurate prediction," the report said.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: avianflu; bioterror; bioterrorism; birdflu; h5n1
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1 posted on 11/02/2005 9:12:07 PM PST by neverdem
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To: Judith Anne; Mother Abigail

ping


2 posted on 11/02/2005 9:13:26 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem

Ah, the NY Slimes. A day late and a dollar short.

Too bad they don't read FR. It's all right here.


3 posted on 11/02/2005 9:15:55 PM PST by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: neverdem

Yeah, yeah, yeah....

And global warming will melt the polar icecaps, raising the ocean level, drowning us all next week.

More doom and gloom bullsqueeze from the Birdcage Liner of Record.


4 posted on 11/02/2005 9:17:58 PM PST by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and I'm tired of smiling.)
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To: neverdem
Branson Snaps Up 10,000 Courses Of Tamiflu

It's just a scare, nothing to worry about.

5 posted on 11/02/2005 9:18:39 PM PST by blam
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To: El Gato; JudyB1938; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Robert A. Cook, PE; lepton; LadyDoc; jb6; tiamat; PGalt; ..
Flummoxing the Flu (We need many parallel strategies.)

Wrong Prescription (Jumping on avian vaccine spending won’t help matters.)

FReepmail me if you want on or off my health and science ping list. Anyone can post any unrelated link as they see fit.

6 posted on 11/02/2005 9:21:14 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem

An outbreak of the avian flu virus in the United States could infect one-third of the population and kill as many as 1.9 million people, according to an analysis by the federal government released today.



Yes and monkeys could fly out my a$$ too, but it's not likely.


7 posted on 11/02/2005 9:23:05 PM PST by trubluolyguy (Is it more stupid believe in God, or to be offended by that which you don't believe exists?)
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To: neverdem

Probally kill 1.9 mil in Los Angeles.
Economic dispuption would really damage the country.
Most of the rest of the world would be toast.
The places that are already toast would likly disappear.
Hope I'm wrong.


8 posted on 11/02/2005 9:23:22 PM PST by calljack (Sometimes your worst nightmare is just a start.)
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To: neverdem

Is this the strain the vacinee will protect against or a different one? If its the same im going for a shot tomorrow when im at the college heather center.


9 posted on 11/02/2005 9:24:18 PM PST by RHINO369
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To: neverdem

Wasn't W supposed to give a warning of a flu pandemic yesterday? Did that happen? I got a flu shot. Am I saved?


10 posted on 11/02/2005 9:27:10 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome.Boldness has genius, power &magic in it.. Begin your dissertation now!)
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To: RHINO369

It's a different one but for various reasons, because of them both, go ahead and get your flu shot this year.


11 posted on 11/02/2005 9:27:42 PM PST by MarMema
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To: neverdem
All this hype about avian flu frankly reminds me of a bit George Carling did a few years back. He's reading the news and reads a story about traffic safety and he says something along the lines of:

"Over the weekend there were a total of 7 accidents reported on local roads which brings the monthly total to 18. The Highway Deptartment says it's expecting a total of 60. YOU'RE NOT TRYING FRIENDS!!!"

12 posted on 11/02/2005 9:28:04 PM PST by Reaganesque
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To: neverdem
"And when you hear of wars and tumults, do not be terrified; for this must first take place, but the end will not be at once." Then he said to them, "Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be great earthquakes, and in various places famines and pestilences; and there will be terrors and great signs from heaven. But before all this they will--persecute you," (Luke 21)

Any of this stuff sound familiar to anyone else?

13 posted on 11/02/2005 9:28:35 PM PST by TheCrusader ("The frenzy of the Mohammedans has devastated the churches of God" -Pope Urban II, 1097AD)
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One of these days we will get a pandemic flu. They've happened in the past, and they will happen again. Will it be the Avian flu? Maybe. Maybe not. I am thankful the President is taking steps to be prepared just in case.


14 posted on 11/02/2005 9:29:40 PM PST by SmoothTalker
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To: neverdem

I figure if we just wash our hands more often and cook our poultry before we eat it we should do just fine.


15 posted on 11/02/2005 9:30:26 PM PST by R_Kangel ("Liberals are like a broken pencil.......useless with no point.")
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To: TheCrusader

""And when you hear of wars and tumults, do not be terrified; for this must first take place, but the end will not be at once." Then he said to them, "Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be great earthquakes, and in various places famines and pestilences; and there will be terrors and great signs from heaven. But before all this they will--persecute you," (Luke 21)"

It does but that prophecy from Luke is one of the vaguer ones in the Bible. When in history have we not had wars, earth quakes, plagues, and famines?


16 posted on 11/02/2005 9:31:12 PM PST by SmoothTalker
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To: clee1

Only 1.9 million? That isn't a pandemic!!

How many million die from the flu now? Does this mean we have been having a pandemic going on for decades? Is this in addition to those pandemic numbers?
Or is the WHO just looking for more money so they can live luxurious lives and drive nice SUV's on African safari's?


17 posted on 11/02/2005 9:32:45 PM PST by Forte Runningrock
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To: R_Kangel

That's probably the most realistic things to do: wash hands and cook poultry thoroughly. LOL!


18 posted on 11/02/2005 9:33:29 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome. Boldness has genius, power &magic in it..Begin your dissertation now!)
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To: trubluolyguy

LOL! You have to wonder why the MSM is pushing this meme so hard.


19 posted on 11/02/2005 9:37:50 PM PST by TheDon (The Democratic Party is the party of TREASON!)
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To: TheCrusader

Yep - sounds familiar - been happening for thousands of years now...


20 posted on 11/02/2005 9:39:21 PM PST by over3Owithabrain
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