Iranian Alert - November 3, 2005 - How Dangerous is Iran? A MUST READ!

Regime Change Iran ^ | 11.3.2005 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

Top News Story

Full text of the Cicero article on Iran

by Dan Darling at November 1, 2005 07:59 AM

Here is the full English text of the recent Cicero article on Iran as provided by the brave men and women of the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS).

As I think you'll see, it's well worth reading in full.

German Article Examines Threat Posed by Iran's Radical Islamists

EUP20051026072016 Potsdam Cicero (Internet Version-WWW) in German 27 Oct 05

[Article by Bruno Schirra: "How Dangerous Is Iran?"]

[FBIS Translated Text]

Mohamad Ali Abtahi is a man whose voice has grown weary. A man for whom his faith led single-mindedly into politics, which, so it appears, after long years as a partner in power, has driven him first to melancholy calmness and then into deep resignation. Now he sits in his threadbare armchair and stares out into the world, his eyes dull. His face has grown old and grey before its time.

In truth, the Mullah Mohammad Ali Abtahi, at 47, is still a fairly young man. One who, many years ago, looked at the world and the future full of vitality and confidence, with a full, chubby-cheeked face and wily eyes, from which a mischievous gleam constantly seemed to flash. He fought for his God, for His justice, so that it could take hold in what the Constitution calls the "Only theocracy on Earth." Finally, Abtahi did this in his function as vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Two days before our conversation, he had resigned from his office, worn down by the constant battling with the radical hardliners of the Majlis. In the Parliament in Tehran, Iran's radical Islamist parties won a landslide victory in the spring 2004 elections. "Let us not kid ourselves," Mohammad Ali Abtahi began our conversation: "Even if the Council of Guardians excluded the most reform oriented candidates from the parliamentary elections before the election -- for the reformers in Iran this 2004 election was a disaster. The people abandoned us."

In defiance of all the reformers' calls for a boycott, Iranian voters flocked to take part in these parliamentary elections. The boycott, the only means the Iranian reformers had of presenting themselves as a politically relevant force in the country, did not take place. Even in Tehran, the metropolis of the theocracy, which actually can point to something resembling cosmopolitan niches, barely 50 percent of the voters went to the polls, and the majority voted conservative or radical Islamist. In his analysis, Mr. Abtahi became lost in deep pessimism on this October day: "This election means the failure of all reform. The consequence is a high, a very high wall; this sets in concrete for years the radical Islamist realities of the Islamic Republic, and the vision of a democratic Islamist civil society is ruins. You know the case of Ateqeh Rajabi?" he then asks softly.

"What about Ateqeh Rajabi?" Mr. Abtahi hears the question, his voice now sounds even more weary, despairingly weak. He dealt with the case of Ateqeh Rajabi. He knows all too well that there are countless cases like this one in his Islamic Republic, knows that there were also always cases like this one in all the eight years of the reformist emergence of his friend Khatami, and knows that these cases serve as examples to explain why the reformers of his country were bound to fail. Because as long as Shari'a, the Islamic system of law, is the only constitutional basis for the Islamic Republic of Iran, democratic reforms really cannot be carried out. Not against the resistance of the Islamist justice system, the Islamist guardians of the revolution, the Islamist power apparatus of the supreme spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. All those for whom Shari'a is the
absolute guiding principle of their action. Mr. Abtahi groped his way through this truth during the hours of the conversation on this October day; he talked around it cautiously, weary and resigned. Mohammad Ali Abtahi cannot voice this truth, however, because he is a Mullah. "I simply cannot put this aside," he said, "even if I do not consider anything that happened with Ateqeh Rajabi to be right."

Ateqeh Rajabi was hanged, she dangled for a whole hour on the rope, on this crane in Neka, a small town in the north of Iran. At 0600 on 15 August 2004 she was hanged, hanged until her legs finally no longer twitched. It took 11 minutes; her death struggle lasted 11 minutes. The inhabitants of Neka had all come to see her die with their own eyes. They stood and stared, mute and without moving. Since even Neka's executioner refused to discharge his duties, the Neka judge, the Haji Rajai himself proceeded to action, personally placing the hemp rope around her neck and raising her high on the crane. Ateqeh Rajabi was 15 years and seven months old when she died. For her judge, the honorable Haji Rajai, it was a matter close to his heart to carry out his duties in the greatest strictness. After all, the young girl Ateqeh Rajabi was a "corrupter of morals, much worse than a whore." That is what Haji Rajai had argued when the validity of his first-instance death sentence was examined before the Supreme Court of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as provided for under the Constitution.

The proceedings, the passage through the courts, took less than four weeks. Then the supreme Judge of Allah, in accordance with the Shari'a legal opinions and for the greater good of Islamic morals, upheld the death sentence against Ateqeh Rajabi. Ateqeh Rajabi was guilty, because witnesses had seen her holding hands with a man 10 years her senior in the Neka park. There was the suspicion that things had not stopped with handholding, particularly since this was not the first time she had publicly "prostituted herself." Thus spoke the Neka judge, Haji Rajai.

"I am not a whore, I am still a virgin," Ateqeh Rajabi had screamed in Haji Rajai's face during the trial; then she had lifted up her chador, spread her legs, with her finger on her own private parts and lashed out at the judge: "See for yourself!"

On this October day, Mohammad Ali Abtahi talked about this event and about what such a death sentence means for his country. It means that in the face of such a justice system, no human rights dialogue can be conducted, "nor can any be conducted between Europe and the true holders of power in my country." The day before, a Western ambassador had described this process as a "dialogue of deaf-mutes." And then admired the fine bouquet of a dry spaetlese wine.

After this story, on this October day Mohammad Ali Abtahi got up from his armchair in his "center for religious dialogue" and gave the visitor a last warning to carry with him: "We have here in our country powerful rightist extremist power groups. In the next presidential election, they can win back the last bastion of the reformers. The next half year will not only be the most dangerous period for Iran in a long time. That is even more true for Europe and the United States."

Months later, to the bafflement of all Western experts and observers, Tehran Mayor Mahmud Ahmadinezhad was elected in Iran's presidential election with a clear majority as the new president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The candidate for the reformers finished far behind. At 0300, an email reached me: "I did everything; I fought desperately. It was all for nothing. We all failed. Our country will be lost." The sender was Mohammad Ali Abtahi.

There is reason for his despair, because with the election of Ahmadinezhad the radical Islamist hardliners have now recaptured all the control centers of power in Iran. "Ahmadinezhad," Abtahi writes, "is a visionary. He dreams of a second, revolution in Iran, the Islamist one. He is the representative of the rightist extremists that I warned you about. I was always against Ahmadinezhad," he writes further. "We have always fought against him and against those who back him. Now, however, we have experienced a crushing defeat. What lies ahead for us and for you is the long night of darkness that I spoke about at the time." Behind Abtahi's words is the fear that now, since all power centers are united in the hands of radical Islamist power groups around supreme spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i, "these people will play the nuclear card just the same as the card of global terror."

In fact, the new president made clear right after his triumphant election victory, "We did not carry out the Islamist revolution in order to introduce democracy." He hammered his objectives home to the rejoicing followers. "Our revolution seeks to achieve worldwide power," he said, continuing, "I am a pure fundamentalist." He repeats these principles the length and breadth of the country, castigates "Western decadence," promises "the strictest interpretation of the religious laws of Shari'a." Internationally recognized conventions on women's rights are for him "a fatal offense against the values of Islam." This is not so much a devout Muslim speaking as rather one who knows that he is in possession of the one, the pure truth. The masses follow him.

Within the close circle of his loyal followers, Iran's new state president Mahmud Ahmadinezhad revealed his great vision. It stems from the days of the 1979 Islamist Revolution. Now it harbors within it a new explosive force. "The new Islamic revolution" according to Ahmadinezhad, will cut out the roots of injustice throughout the entire world. The era of the Godless regime, tyranny, and injustice has come to its end," he prophesies. "The wave of the Islamist revolution will soon reach the entire world."

It appears that the new Iranian state president has already mercilessly pursued his enemy. The Austrian state police possess information that suggests that Ahmadinezhad belonged to the "reserves" of the killer teams that murdered Kurdish leader Abd al-Rahman Qassimlou on 13 July 1989 in Vienna. Then state President Rafsanjani gave the order for the murder. A witness who has now surfaced, who for security reasons is identified only as "D," has revealed detailed insider information to the Austrian police.

Western political leaders and security experts are evincing alarm. "The man at the head of Iran is an extremist, he wants to export the Islamist revolution," it is said in intelligence circles. "If this becomes Iran's new foreign policy, a maximum terrorist worst-case scenario threatens the West. Then the Sunni Al-Qa'ida terrorists and Shi'ite terrorist organizations will cooperate closely. Against the common enemy. Against the West."

One scenario is of particular concern to Western intelligence: Iran becomes radicalized and delivers to Al-Qa'ida in the future what the holy killers today only dream about: chemical and biological weapons for their holy war against the West.

This is not panic mongering, because Iran's new president has had an exemplary career in Iran's Revolutionary Guard and its intelligence service. "Ahmadinezhad can and will use the terrorist card every time as extortion against the West," says a member of the Jordanian GID intelligence service. "If Europe does not accommodate Iran in the dispute over the Mullahs' nuclear program, they will threaten terrorism against British soldiers in Iraq and French interests in Lebanon."

Iran's European negotiating partners now fear that what was previously only threatened will become reality after Ahmadinezhad's entry into office. Especially since their intelligence services possess alarming findings. "For Ahmadinezhad, the threat of terrorism is not a diplomatic finger exercise. He believes in the 'purity' of the Islamist revolution, and he translates into action what he threatens," assesses a Western intelligence service.

In fact, the intelligence service of the Revolutionary Guard has been providing the leadership of Al-Qa'ida with a secure hiding place, logistical support, military training, and equipment for years. "The fact that Sunni jihadists and Shi'ites hate one another is, for both sides, no reason not to cooperate. They have a common enemy," Western intelligence services are aware.

The author of this article was able to look at a list of the holy killers who have found safe refuge in Iran. The list reads like the Who's Who of global jihad, with close to 25 high-ranking leadership cadres of Al-Qa'ida -- planners, organizers, and ideologues of the jihad from Egypt, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, and Europe. Right at the top in the Al-Qa'ida hierarchy: three of Usama Bin Ladin's sons, Saad, Mohammad, and Othman.

Al-Qa'ida spokesman Abu Ghaib enjoys Iranian protection, as does Abu Dagana al-Alemani (known as the German), who coordinates cooperation of the various jihadist networks throughout the world from Iran. They live in secure housing of the Revolutionary Guard in and around Tehran. "This is not prison or house arrest," is the conclusion of a high-ranking intelligence officer. "They are free to do as they please."

Saif al-Adel, military chief and number three in Al-Qa'ida, also had a free hand. In early May 2003, Saudi intelligence recorded a telephone conversation with the organizer of the series of attacks in the Saudi capital Riyadh that claimed over 30 victims, including seven foreigners, in May 2003. Saif al-Adel gives orders for the attacks from Iran, where he operated under the wing of the Iranian intelligence service.

For years, according to the findings of Middle Eastern and Western intelligence services, Iranian intelligence services have already worked together repeatedly with Sunni jihad organizations of Al-Qa'ida. "As an Islamist, I go to the Saudis to get money," the Jordanian GID man outlines the current practice of Islamist holy warriors. "When I need weapons, logistical support, or military terrorist training and equipment, I go to the Iranians."

The blueprints for the Al-Qa'ida attacks on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 originated in Tehran. The man refers to witness statements, documents, and telephone recordings.

Quite open and very warlike notes have also been sounded by Iran itself, however. They bear witness to the return of the Iranian state terrorism of the 1980s and 1990s in the past century. More than 60 people fell victim to a series of hostage takings and murders of Western foreigners that lasted for years. The barracks of the US Marines as well as of the French peacekeeping forces were blown up, and hundreds of people died. The perpetrators: the Lebanese Hizballah. The planners and men behind them came from the leadership of Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

In 1992, under the direction of Iranian diplomats and officers of the Revolutionary Guard, members of the Lebanese Hizballah reduced the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires to rubble in an explosion, and in 1994, they blew up the Jewish AMIA social center in the Argentine capital.

Western intelligence services now fear a repetition of this series of global terrorism. In view of a large newspaper announcement, which appeared in August in the paper Partow-e Sokhan, this is a realistic prospect -- especially if the dispute between Iran and the West over the Iranian nuclear weapons program continues to escalate. The text of the notice reads as follows: "Martyr attacks are the highest virtue and the highest courage;" it is signed by the "Commando of Volunteer Martyrs" as responsible for the text. Behind this is Ansar Hizballah, the most radical Islamist death squad of the Islamic Republic. Mohammadresa Jafari the supreme commander of the "Commando of Volunteer Martyrs," is threatening the global deployment of suicide commandos and 50,000 fighters have already been recruited. In the United States and other NATO countries, suicide commandos are also currently standing by ready for action at any time. "The enemy is afraid," says Mohammadresa Jafari, "that the culture of martyrdom will become a world culture of all those who love freedom."

Behind the Ansar Hizballah and the potential suicide attacks stands one man: the owner of the newspaper Partow-e Sokhan. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the most radical hardliner in the Islamic Republic and the man who organized the triumphant landslide election of Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. Mesbah Yazdi's political skill led Ahmadinezhad to the presidency. Ayatollah Yazdi, propagandist of global suicide attacks, praises Ahmadinezhad's administration as "the first Islamic administration in the history of the Islamic Republic."

A threatening backdrop that could become real for Western security experts in the near future. Because in the nuclear dispute with the West, Ahmadinezhad is openly threatening the next stage of escalation. In concrete terms, he is threatening the resumption of all enrichment activities. The enrichment of uranium is indispensable for building a nuclear bomb.

According to IAEA experts in Vienna, it is true that Iran's broad nuclear infrastructure makes sense to the extent that a country wants to make itself independent of fissile fuels. It makes even more sense, however, if a country intends to build the bomb. "If I lay everything on the table that we know about the Iranian nuclear program, along with all the information that we possess about the Iran's medium-range missile program," says an IAEA inspector, "then my answer to the question of whether Iran is building the bomb goes like this: It looks like a duck, it waddles like a duck, and it goes quack quack. What, then, do you believe it is?"

The practical consequences of this answer make Western intelligence services shudder: "If anyone, the United States or even Israel, gets the idea to bomb the Iranian nuclear weapons program back 10 years into the past, then God help us," says a Western intelligence officer. "Then the Mullahs will unleash their guard dogs worldwide. They will equip and support all Shi'ite terrorist networks with the Sunni networks globally, that is, with everything that they have. For us it would be the ultimate worst-case scenario, one for which we are not prepared."

[Description of Source: Potsdam Cicero (Internet Version-WWW) in German -- monthly news magazine]

Reference:
1. German Magazine Reports Iran Sheltering Bin Ladin Sons, Al-Qa'ida Members EUP20051026102016 AFP (North European Service) 26 Oct 05

DoctorZin

: This is the author and publication that was raided by the German authorities earlier this year for publishing classified German intelligence information. It is credible. A definite must read. It needs to be widely read. When will congress take up the Iran bills in committee???

A Daily Briefing of Major News Stories on Iran:

• Iran Press News reported that a regime-run newspapers warned its readers to: keep the names of these inferior creatures in mind... Kofi Anan... the authorities of the European Union as well as the Vatican, Franco Fini... Turkish Prime Minister... the chief of the PLO Steering and Monitoring Committee...Denis Hastert (speaker of the U.S. house of representatives), Sean McCormack (National Security Council Spokesman).
• Iran Press News reported that Tehran authorities are inspecting the case of a young man who according to his family was tortured to death by the regime’s agents.
• Iran Press News reported that Ahmad-Reza Shiri, Journalist and blogger from Mash'had who had been arrested and imprisoned temporarily, awaiting trial.
• Iran Press News reported that a group of armed individuals who claimed to be intelligence agents of the city of Saari (Province of Mazandaraan) kidnapped the editor of Daryaasar newspaper and after brutally beating him, cut his ear off.
• Iran Press News reported that Iranian dissident Payman Peeraan's new trial begins.
• MosNews reported that industrial contracts between Iran and Russia could reach $10 billion per year.
• Iran Press News published a horrific letter of political prisoner Mehrdad Lohrasbi.
• Iran Focus reported that Iran’s top national security official and a senior aide to Supreme Leader, Larijani, said: If the West wants to refer Iran’s nuclear file to the Security Council, we won’t have any problem. It just means that oil prices will reach 150 dollars, which will bring good luck for the government of [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that politicians from Italy's left and right have said they will attend a rally in front of the Iranian embassy on Thursday to protest remarks by the Iranian president.
• Ynetnews reported that Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Gianfranco Fini said Tuesday that should Iran equip itself with nuclear weapons the whole world and not only Israel will be threatened.
• Islamic Republic News Agency reported that Foreign Secretary Jack Straw Tuesday rejected a call from a supporter of the MKO terrorist group to start talks with Iranian opposition groups to overthrow the country's government.
• Ha'aretz reminded us that the phrase "death to Israel" and "Israel must be eliminated" are Khomeini's original coin phrases. These are the very words that Khomeini uttered to his first-ever foreign visitor - Yasser Arafat.
• Alon Ben-Meir, United Press International reported that many believe that the Iranian president's call to 'wipe Israel off the map,' is tantamount to a declaration of war.
• The Guardian confirmed that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has embarked on a purge of senior Iranian diplomats.
• Martin Indyk, The Los Angeles Times warned that Iran's recent bluster isn't a bluff.
• And finally, Abbas Milani, The Wall Street Journal argued that the clerical cabal that rules Iran is pushing its captive population ever closer to the precipice and the only answer to the Iranian nuclear problem is democracy.

[Fred Nerks]

SAME OLD SAME OLD JIHAD.


What is Jihad: The Arabic word Jihad is derived from the root word Jahada (struggle). Jihad has come to mean an offensive war to be waged by Muslims against all non-Muslims to convert them to Islam on the pain of death. Jihad is enjoined on all Muslims by the Quran.

This site brings you the history of the Islamic Jihad from a neutral and factual viewpoint.

Site Map

The Jihad against Arabs (622 to 634)

The Jihad against Zoroastrian Persians of Iran, Baluchistan and Afghanistan (634 to 651)

The Jihad against the Byzantine Christians (634 to 1453)

The Jihad against Christian Coptic Egyptians (640 to 655)

The Jihad against Christian Coptic Nubians - modern Sudanese (650)

The Jihad against pagan Berbers - North Africans (650 to 700)

The Jihad against Spaniards (711 to 730)

The Reconquista against Jihad in Spain (730 to 1492)

The Jihad against Franks - modern French (720 to 732)

The Jihad against Sicilians in Italy (812 to 940)

The Jihad against Chinese (751)

The Jihad against Turks (651 to 751)

The Jihad against Armenians and Georgians (1071 to 1920)

The Crusade against Jihad (1096 – 1291 ongoing)

The Jihad against Mongols (1260 to 1300)

The Jihad against Hindus of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh (638 to 1857)

The Jihad against Indonesians and Malays (1450 to 1500)

The Jihad against Poland (1444 to 1699)

The Jihad against Rumania (1350 to 1699)

The Jihad against Russia (1500 to 1853)

The Jihad against Bulgaria (1350 to 1843)

The Jihad against Serbs, Croats and Albanians (1334 to 1920)

The Jihad against Greeks (1450 to 1853)

The Jihad against Albania (1332 - 1853)

The Jihad against Croatia (1389 to 1843)

The Jihad against Hungarians (1500 to 1683)

The Jihad against Austrians (1683)

Jihad in the Modern Age (20th and 21st Centuries)

The Jihad against Israelis (1948 – 2004 ongoing)

The Jihad against Americans (9/11/2001)

The Jihad against the British (1947 onwards)

The Jihad against the Germans (1945 onwards)

The Jihad against the Indians (1947 onwards)

The Jihad against the Filipinos in Mindanao(1970 onwards)

The Jihad against Indonesian Christians in Malaku and East Timor (1970 onwards)

The Jihad against Russians (1995 onwards)

The Jihad against Dutch and Belgians (2003 onwards)

The Jihad against Norwegians and Swedes (2003 onwards)

The Jihad against Thais (2003 onwards)

The Jihad against Nigerians (1965 onwards)

The Jihad against Canadians (2001 onwards)

The Jihad against Latin America (2003 onwards)

The Jihad against Australia (2002 onwards)

The Global Jihad today (2001 – ongoing)

The War on Terror against Jihad today (2001– ongoing)

[Dark Skies]

The Koran and the evil it has inspired makes "Mein Kampf" look like a Harlequin romance.

[Fred Nerks]

in memory of DIOGENESIS


The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

---

EXHIBIT 5

---

PARTIAL LIST OF ISLAMIC TERRORIST ACTIVITIES

1968 Robert Kennedy assassinated
1972 Munich Olympics Sep-5,1972 (Black September)
1976 Entebbe Hostage Crisis, June 27, 1976
1979 Iran Hostage Crisis, Nov. 4, 1979 444 days
1979 Grand Mosque Seizure, Nov 20,1979
1981 Assassination of Egyptian President, Oct 6,1981
1982 Assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister, Sept 14, 1982
1983 Bombing of US Embassy in Beirut6, April 18,1983
1983 Bombing of Maring Barricks, Beruit, Oct 23,1983
1984 Hizballah Restaurant Bombing, April 12,1984
1985 Egyptian Airliner Hijacking, Nov 23,1985
1985 Rome Airport murders
1985 TWA Flight 847 hijacked, U.S. Navy diver murdered
1985 Achille Lauro hijacking, Homacidal maniac lived in saddams Iraq
1986 Aircraft Bombing in Greece, March 30, 1986
1988 Pan Am 747 Flight 103 Bombing, Lockerbie, 100's murdered
1988 Berlin Discoteque Bombing, Dec 21,1988
1992 Bombing in Israeli Embassy in Argentina, March 17,1992
1993 Attempted Assassination of Pres. Bush Sr., April 14,1993
1993 First World Trade Center bombing, February 26th, 7 Killed, Hundreds injured, Billions
1994 Air France Hijacking, Dec 24,1994
1995 Attack on US Diplomats in Pakistan, Mar 8,1995
1995 Military Installation Attack, Nov 13, 1995
1995 Kashmiri Hostage taking, July 4,1995
1996 Khobar Towers attack
1996 Sudanese Missionarys Kidnapping, Aug 17,1996
1996 Paris Subway Explosion, Dec 3,1996
1997 Israeli Shopping Mall Bombing, Sept 4, 1997
1997 Yemeni Kidnappings, Oct 30,1997
1998 Somali Hostage taking crisis, April 15,1998
1998 U.S. Embassy Bombing in Peru, Jan 15, 1998
1998 U.S. Kenya Embassy blown up, 100's murdered
1998 U.S. Tanzania Embassy blown up, 100's murdered
1999 Plot to blow up Space Needle (thwarted)
2000 USS Cole attacked, many U.S. Navy sailors murdered
2000-2003 Intifada against Israel - 100's dead and injured
2000 Manila Bombing, Dec 30,2000
2001 4 Commercial airliners hijacked, 250+ murdered
2001 World Trade Center attacked, 2800+ murdered
2001 Flight 93 murders
2001 Pentagon attacked, 180+ murdered
2002 Reporter Daniel Pearl, kidnapped and murdered
2002 Philippines American missionary, Filipino nurse killed
2002 July 4, El Al attack Los Angeles LAX, several murdered
2002 Bali bombing - 200 dead, 300 injured
2002 Yemen, French Oil Tanker attacked
2002 Marines attacked / murdered in Kuwait
2002 Washington D.C. sniper
2002 Russian Theater attacked, 100+ dead
2002 Nigerian riots against Miss World Pageant, 200 dead, dozens injured
2002 Mombasa Hotel Attacked, 12 dead, dozens injured
2002 Israeli Boeing 757 attacked by missiles, fortunately no one injured
2002 August Hotel bombing in Jakarta, Indonesia. 12 dead, dozens injured.
2003 Rusian concert bombing
2003 Phillipines airport and market bombing
2003 Foiled SAM plot in the USA
2003 UN Baghdad HQ Bombing
on and on and on and on their terrorism has gone .........

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/user-posts?id=46796

[Fred Nerks]

[Alexander Rubin]

I'm more worried about China. When I say "all things being equal", I mean it. Pragmatically, a war with Iran would be disastrous right now, even if you ignore the inevitable fallout. But what happens when an opportunistic totalitarian China sees this as a golden opportunity for weakening the U.S., for land grabs (Taiwan? Nepal?), or doing any other number of terrible things. The truth is, an Iranian-American war would be a golden opportunity for them. Iraq, as a war, is not so bad. It's nasty at times, but if we just keep a stiff lip and our chin up and stay the course, we'll do fine. Iran is a nightmare. It's larger, it's more organized, it's more homogenous, it has a modern military (though precious little modern anything else). They -do- have WMDs. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Russia won't intervene to help the U.S. in reality, whether it's given assurances or not. Even if it wanted to, it has its own severe problems. Ideally, I'd love to see Europe deal with the E.U., which would be great for several reasons. Unfortunately, it's not going to happen. The truth is, what is likely to happen is that Israel, with implicit U.S. consent, is going to try to bomb that program. Or the U.S. will do it itself. Then Iran will start funding terrorist groups hardcore (chemical weapons, bio weapons, proper military training, military grade explosives: think of what terrorists could do with Semtex-H or C-4 instead of just TATP). And then, we will be in a bad situation. That pretty much guarantees a war is coming if Iran is traced back to that. And Iran cannot be dealt with with just 100, 000 troops. Not without bombing their cities back into the stone age. Which would be impossible to do in the global political climate.

As I said, we're in a very bad place, and Iran knows it. Noone else is coming to help us, and this problem does not seem likely to resolve itself either cheaply, quietly, quickly or peacefully.

Long story short: prepare for some hard times. It won't be the worst America has ever faced, but without a united country, it could very well become very difficult to deal with.

So, what I intend to do is pray that Europe wakes up. Or maybe that the U.N. does something. It's a long shot, but I see few other pragmatic alternatives in this situation. Our resources are stretched too thin, our political capital is largely spent, and we lack the national political will for a cohesive, decisive action.

[Fred Nerks]

Who's your freind?

[markedmannerf]

Ive been waiting to see this article thanks for posting!

[Dark Skies]

Freddie, you have outdone yourself...that is hilarious. Hope you don't mind if I shamelessly spread it all over the internet?

[Fred Nerks]

Be my guest, thank Diogenesis. Save the link, it's a goldmine.

[penelopesire]

"So, what I intend to do is pray that Europe wakes up. Or maybe that the U.N. does something."

That sounds like an awful idea. I just finished reading the Guardian's latest articles and the posts from the citizens in the UK concerning Iran. Europe is all but lost!
What makes you think we only have 100,000 troops that could go into Iran? I am not even sure boots on the ground in Iran would be necessary for quite some time. We can do alot of damage to the little dictator from 50,000 ft.

[Fred Nerks]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1514487/posts

[Alexander Rubin]

The problem is that damage to Iran from 50, 000 ft. is exactly what they want us to do. It would cause public outrage and unite the country an. Think of what the London Blitz actually achieved in Britain? Did it break morale, as the Nazis had hoped? Not at all. It would just give the Iranian gov't an excuse to fund the global jyhad openly, and supply them, and give them public support and national will to do that. And I am saying we have about 130, 000 troops or thereabouts in Iraq, and we are finding recruitment drying up (even if reenlistment is higher than expected), and troops elsewhere spread thin. We can't afford a war with Iran which has an enormous military, and one which is of much higher quality than Iraq's former military (or current military for that matter, unfortunately). And forget carpet bombing Iran; you and I both know that is an impossibility given the political climate we live in.

If you think this situation is going to resolve easily, or painless, or quickly, or cheaply, think again. Iran is a huge problem. Even more so than North Korea (which China will deal with sooner or later anyways, whether we like it or not). Europe is not all but lost, but it is only beginning to awake, and very slowly, from a long sleep. It probably won't get up for breakfast in time...

[mtntop3]

And ten million Iraqi's voted freely two weeks ago in aproving the constitution of the Arab world's first democracy.

What a contrast...

The Iran in this post brings up recollections of the Third Reich in the 1930's - at a time when many believed that Hitler and his thugs would never do what they were at that moment in the very process of doing.

By the end of WWII in 1945, some 60 million persons had been killed.

Iran cannot be permitted to get close to having even a single nuclear weapon - for the sake of its own population which it will take hostage as a mass target through the regime's own aggressions.

[Dark Skies]

Have you been following the career of Nicholas Sarkozy, Interior Minister? He is no surrender monkey. Send all uneaten brie to me.

He is the Dracule of France.

He will impale Chirac and Villepin to illustrate to the jihadis what is instore for them.

[RaceBannon]

major bump

[sheik yerbouty]

The official line is that "Islam is a religion of peace"(Barf!)

[penelopesire]

Who said anything about carpet bombing Iran? Good grief. We can do alot of damage to most of Iran's weapons sites without much damage to the population...just like we did in Iraq during 'Shock and Awe' and the general population in Iraq did not join the insurgency and to this day they have not. If Saddam can beat Iran in a war..THE US and ISRAEL sure as hell can. Don't be so doom and gloom.

[Dark Skies]

Hey Sheik...check out the link at post #9. Tony Blankley hits a real home run. It's a long read but powerful stuff.

And by the way...let me know when you are heading out of town. I will look after your seraglio for you. I promise I'll behave.

[sheik yerbouty]

An excellent article. I find the term "sand nazis" befits them.
A distant relative, Sheik Abdul bin Falafel has already been designated to look after my interests in the event I am traveling..

[Fred Nerks]

The man who would be president

By Caroline Wyatt
BBC Paris correspondent


He was once the protege of Jacques Chirac but now he is the French president's most feared opponent. The Finance Minister, Nicolas Sarkozy - or Sarko as he is known in France - says the president should stand down at the next election and make way for a younger man: himself.


Turn on the television in France and there he is - a short, slim, Napoleonic figure, grinning wolfishly, as he outlines his newest proposals for solving the nation's problems.
Listen to the radio and you can hear him speak persuasively in the plain, everyday language of ordinary people, rather than the grander French of a Jacques Chirac or Dominique de Villepin.

Open your newspaper and there's Sarko in a blur of action - a hyperactive man in a hurry, visiting flood sites, forest fires, police stations, anywhere and everywhere to get his message across.

One political rival sighed wistfully that it would be lovely to have a Sarko-free day. But for the past year, at least, that has not happened.


Outsider

Mr Sarkozy is often seen as something new in French politics.

The son of a Hungarian immigrant, he never went to that finishing school of the French elite, the Ecole Nationale d'Administration...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/3666606.stm

SAME PARTY, NEW MAN. WHY WOULD HE BE ANY DIFFERENT?