Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat

Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat

Thread Thirty-Two (Index)

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The Threat Matrix

The title refers to a daily report given to the president of the United States detailing the most serious terrorist threats against the country. To tackle those threats, the government has formed a top-notch task force to infiltrate the terror cells and cut off the danger.

"Every morning, the president receives a list of the top ten terrorist threats - this list is known as the threat matrix."

We here at FR are trying to be in conjunction with the daily reports around the world that involve threats. We try to provide a storehouse of information that takes hours of research.

YOU be the judge and get informed!

What's become of bin Laden since he gave us all the slip?
Full Story

Some think he is dead, others that he is hiding because he is scared of being killed.

Whatever the reason for the strange disappearance of Osama bin Laden, not seen alive since his last mocking video statement a year ago, he is no longer the face of the global "jihad" against the West.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi { TM 25,TM 27 }, the Jordanian responsible for some of the worst atrocities in Iraq, has become the hero of the hour on militant Islamist websites.

"I will never cower before any master nor bend to any threat."

TM Terrorism Handbook

Link to Thread Thirty-One

"Code Red Implications:
Code Red - Stay Home and Await Word."
From Tm'er and Freeper ~MamaDearest~

Tracking the Chatter with TM

TM 'Be on the Lookout'

Survival Preparedness Info.

Threat Matrix Book List

ExSoldier's Invaluable Tips

Arabic Links and Resources

Godzilla's Summaries

Threat Matrix HTML designed by: Ian Livingston

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/50859.html

Security chiefs resign in wake of Jordan bombings

JAMAL HALABY
November 16 2005

Eleven top Jordanian officials, including the national security adviser,
resigned yesterday in the wake of last week's triple hotel bombings.
King Abdullah appointed Marouf al Bakhit, Jordan's ambassador to Israel, to
replace Saad Kheir, the outgoing security chief.
Others to quit included Faisal Fayez, a former prime minister and one of the
king's closest confidants, and prominent religious advisers.
Fayez was expected to be appointed speaker of the senate. He was
replaced by Salam al Turk, a retired army general and a former government
official.
Last Wednesday's attacks on three Amman hotels killed 61 people and
dented the reputation of the country's revered security services.
The bombings were claimed by al Qaeda in Iraq, which is headed by Abu
Musab al Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born militant.
The bombings provoked national outrage and raised concerns over the
handling of the national security services.
There has also been criticism over how four Iraqi cell members managed to
enter Jordan undetected on November 5.
In other developments in the war against terrorism, an ethnic rebel group
claimed responsibility for a car bombing in central Karachi yesterday that hit
a KFC outlet and rattled the offices of a state-run petroleum company,
killing at least three people and wounding 22.
Police were investigating the claim made by the Baluchistan Liberation
Army, which is demanding more revenues for gas extracted from its
impoverished corner of south-west Pakistan.
Following the blast, which marked the first time the group has claimed
responsibility for an attack outside Baluchistan province, the US embassy
warned Americans to "avoid locations where Westerners are known to
frequent throughout Pakistan".
In Afghanistan, police blamed al Qaeda for twin suicide bombings in the
Afghan capital that killed nine people.
Militants fired two rockets into the city last night and one exploded half a
mile from the headquarters of Nato peacekeepers, who were targeted in
Monday's bomb attacks.
Police suspicions of al Qaeda involvement reinforce fears that Osama bin
Laden's terror network has teamed up with its old ally the Taliban, who
claimed responsibility for the first major assault on foreign troops in Kabul in
more than a year.
Hamid Karzai, the president, said he expects terror attacks to continue "for
much more time to come". A rise in violence was expected ahead of key
elections in December. AP

Russian Secret Services' Links With Al-Qaeda
Michel Elbaz, AIA general coordinator

The right hand of bin Laden, the Number Two in "Al-Qaeda" was trained at the secret base of the Russian secret services on Caucasus, the former Lieutenant Colonel of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Alexander Litvinenko told the Polish Rzeczpospolita newspaper. Until the end of 1998, Litvinenko had served in several top-secret units that specialized in struggle against the terrorist and the mafia organizations.
Litvinenko claims that Ayman al-Zawahiri, who headed at that time the terrorist organization "Al-Jihad al-jadid" (it was formed from the Egyptian emigrants - activists of "Al-Jihad" and "Al-Jamaah al-Islamiyah"), in 1998 secretly stayed on the territory of Russia.

Up to the beginning of 1998, the process of merging of the two most radical Islamic organizations – "Al-Jihad al-jadid" and "Al-Qaeda" was completed. Al-Zawahiri became the second person in the hierarchy of the Osama bin Laden's "Al-Qaeda". In February 1998, being together in Afghanistan, they have created the World Islamic Front for Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders. However, at that time the Western secret services yet did not pay any special attention to al-Zawahiri's activity (several years prior to that, he freely visited the USA, and several countries of the Western Europe). The hunt for him, as well as for his fellows in arms began only after the explosions in the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, in August, 1998.
Only then the CIA analysts with the help of the Egyptian and Israeli colleagues managed to restore retrospectively a part al-Zawahiri's "activity schedule" for seven months prior to the attacks in East Africa. As it was discovered, since January till the end of July, 1998, he personally supervised the preparation for the terrorist attacks in Kenya and Tanzania.

Communiqu of the Islamic Army for Liberation of Kenya concerning the attack against the American embassy in Nairobi. August, 11, 1998.
Communiqué of the Islamic Front for Liberation of Sacred Places concerning the attack against the American embassy in Nairobi. August, 11, 1998.
For this purpose al-Zawahiri had left the territory of Afghanistan several times, in particular traveling to Sudan (in the middle of May, 1998). In parallel, he paid a lot of attention to strengthening "Al-Qaeda's" ties with secret services of Khartoum and Tehran.

Strange links

Although our American and Israeli sources do not know about al-Zawahiri staying in Russia, they have supplied us with some other interesting details. According to this information, in the first half of 1998, leaders of "Al-Qaeda" tried in every possible way to increase the level of coordination with terrorist groups worldwide. For this purpose the leaders of many such groups and cells of "Al-Qaeda" were invited to Afghanistan. Getting close to the large-scale attack on the USA, Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have organized a "congress" of the adherents from all over the world. It took place on June, 24, at the capital of the talibs - Kandahar, in southern Afghanistan. Among the visitors were the representatives of the Balkan countries, the Middle East and Africa, and even of the radical Islamic groups from the republics of the former USSR. The Uzbeks and the Chechens were especially outstanding. Besides them, the Kazakhs, the Kyrgyz, the Dargins, the Lakks, and the Tatars had also secretly arrived to Kandahar. All of them came here separately, using sideways. A week prior to the beginning of the conference, a group of well-armed al-Zawahiri's assistants had left by jeeps in the direction of Herat. Following the instructions of their patron, in the town of Koh-i-Doshakh they met three unknown men that arrived from Russia via Iran. The latter called themselves by Muslim names, despite the fact that the two of them had a clearly Slavic appearance. After their arrival in Kandahar, the 'guests' split up. One of the "Russians" was directly escorted to al-Zawahiri, and he did not participate in the conference.
Later on, this 'Russian guest', for almost six years disappeared out of the secret services' sight. He reappeared only in 2004. On February, 13, in the capital of Qatar the car of the ex-president of the Chechen Republic Zelimhan Yandarbiev was blown up.

Couple of days after his death, the authorities of the United Arab Emirates detained two Russian citizens. They turned to be the officers of the secret services. For the last three months they had been working in the embassy of Russia in Doha. After Yandarbiev's assassination these two Russians together with several other of their fellow citizens have hastily left Qatar. Having found out all this, investigators have carefully studied video and photo materials made by the counterspies during the last months on a course of supervision over the Russian diplomatic mission. The results were surprising not only for the Qatar's secret services, but also for their Western colleagues. It appeared that at the end of November, 2003, the embassy was visited by the above-mentioned "Russian", who met al-Zawahiri in the summer of 1998 in Kandahar. Although he had changed his appearance, the special computer software precisely established that he was the one, who had met bin Laden's right hand…

To be continued

Russian Secrets of Al-Qaeda's Number Two
Michel Elbaz, AIA general coordinator
Previous article

Ayman al-Zawahiri – number two in ”Al-Qaeda" - at least in the 1990s, had connections with the Russian secret services. Not only do the former Lieutenant Colonel of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Alexander Litvinenko, and our confidential sources provide evidence to this. Some additional data was acquired by the Americans in autumn, 2001, after the overthrow of the talibs' regime in Afghanistan. All available information allows drawing a certain picture, though not a complete one, of the mysterious liaisons between the architect of the September, 11th attacks and the successor of the almighty KGB.

Azeri route

A mysterious guest from Russia visited Ayman al-Zawahiri at the end of June, a little more than a month before the bombing of the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. According to Alexander Litvinenko, the same year al-Zawahiri visited Russia. Such voyage could have stayed unnoticed by the Western secret services only if it had taken place during the first seven months of 1998. It is known that at this period al-Zawahiri had been leaving Afghanistan several times, without drawing much attention of the Americans and the Israelis.

Litvinenko points out that, once in Russia, al-Zawahiri had undergone a 'stage' at a secret FSB base located in the North Caucasian republic of Daghestan. In mentioned period of time, there existed several routes through which the "Afghani Arabs" arrived from Afghanistan to Daghestan. Iranian and Turkmen routes were considered the most convenient ones. Both of them led to Azerbaijan, the North of which borders with Daghestan. After the beginning of the warfare in Afghanistan, in autumn, 2001, the CIA got hold of al-Zawahiri's portable computer. It contained information about the first trip of Al-Jihad al-jadid leader to Azerbaijan, and then – to Russia, in 1996. In December that same year, he arrived in Daghestan under the legend of a Sudanese businessman, accompanied by two assistants. All three were detained by the Russian Border Guard for violating the local passport regime, and were then delivered to the FSB officers.

Al-Zawahiri in jail
Al-Zawahiri in jail
Al-Zawahiri's and his men's laptop, electronic agendas, and various documents were confiscated. The electronic devices and the papers contained encoded messages in Arabic as to the activity of Al-Jihad al-jadid in the Caucasus.

Suspected of links with the Chechen separatists, the three detainees found themselves in jail. They spent there about half a year. Their trial took place in April, 1997. FSB representatives then assumed an air of not understanding who the Sudanese businessman really was. This appears to be rather strange, taking in account the fact that by then al-Zawahiri was already for several years leading one of the world's most dangerous terrorist groups. Moreover, in the first half of the 1990s, his emissaries on several occasions were in Tajikistan, where the Russian special services till today have rather strong positions. Besides that, until al-Zawahiri's arrest, articles about him, as well as his photos, had been already published in the Arabic and the French mass media. One can hardly believe that the successor of the almighty KGB – the Federal Security Service – knew nothing about all this. Even more impossible seems to be the fact that in the period of six months, the Russian experts were unable to decipher the writings that were confiscated from al-Zawahiri and his 'assistants'.

Tablet in the entrance of Makhachkala court
Tablet in the entrance of Makhachkala court
In may, all the three went free. Then al-Zawahiri leaved his companions for about two weeks. It is unclear, where he was in this period of time, and what his activity was. Only afterwards did al-Zawahiri leave Russia.

Mosaics fragments

After summing up all the available information, an interesting picture becomes visible. In the end of 1996, al-Zawahiri comes to Russia for the first time. He is detained for violating the passport regime. He is put under arrest, being suspected of links with the Chechen separatists. During the trial, representatives of the FSB acquit him of all the suspicions. Once free, he "disappears" for almost two weeks. Only then does al-Zawahiri leave Russia.

In the first half of 1998, al-Zawahiri is totally occupied by the preparation of the terrorist bombings against the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. In the same period, using the same route as previously, he secretly visits Russia. After crossing the border, al-Zawahiri disappears once again, but this time his destination is known – it is a secret FSB base in Daghestan.

By all appearances, already after his return to Afghanistan, al-Zawahiri receives a strange envoy from Russia. This happens a little more than a month prior to the terrorist blasts in the East Africa. In consequence, there appear most serious suspicions that the man, who visited al-Zawahiri in June, 1998, is directly connected to the Russian secret services…

20.07.2005
Unknown History of Jihad
Michel Elbaz, AIA general coordinator
Previous article

Messages about the links of one of the main ideologists and leaders of jihad with the Russian secret services sound a bit strange. Could it be so that the pathways of the Kremlin's clandestine battel and the fanatic adherent of the most radical current in the Islamic fundamentalism intersected in some way? And it is not at all clear what sense does it makes for the Russian secret services to deal with one of the most odious personage in modern times. To get answers to these, and many other questions, one must attentively examine some of the pages in the history of the 20th century…

Shadow of the Great Game

Incidentally or not, but the Russian adventures of Ayman al-Zawahiri amazingly coincide in their timing with the activization of the USA in Central Asia. Few days before the date, when al-Zawahiri left Daghestani jail due to the mercy of FSB, Turkmen President Saparmurad Niiazov

Portrait of Saparmurad Niiazov, Ashkhabad, Sept, 1997 (photo: Corbis)
Portrait of Saparmurad Niiazov, Ashkhabad,
Sept, 1997
(photo: Corbis)
put his signature under the protocol on "concluding creation of a consortium for laying the gas pipeline via Afghanistan, till the 1st of October, this year". Thus, the chances grew considerably for the realization of a grandiose project for transportation of the Central Asian energy carriers via Afghanistan to the Pakistani Indian Ocean ports. At the first stage, the pipeline was supposed to deliver gas from Turkmenistan. Later on, Uzbekistan was expected to join the project. The key role in realization of this plan was played by the American company UNOCAL International Energy Ventures Ltd. In case of success, Washington's influence in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia would have multiplied. Moreover, the states of this region would have got an opportunity to finally end their dependence of Moscow. Until the export of their energy carriers was performed through Russia, the Kremlin had a powerful gear of pressure over its former satellites.
As soon as, in the early 1990s, the idea of this pipeline emerged, the Americans and their Pakistani partners agreed that its construction would be possible only after termination of the internecine war in Afghanistan. After the Talibs appeared, it seemed that it is them, who will

Taliban troops (photo: Corbis)
Taliban troops
(photo: Corbis)
bring their country the long-awaited stability. However, regardless of their military success, to the North of Kabul the fights never ceased. At the end of 1997, the USA came forward with the initiative of negotiations between the Talibs and the Northern Alliance. In November, UNOCAL company organized the visit to Washington of a high-ranking Talibs' delegation. During the meetings with them, the issue of pipeline construction had been discussed, as well as the question of future internal Afghani negotiations. It is after the return of this delegation to Kandahar that al-Zawahiri began to prepare the terrorist attacks on the American embassies in Africa. However, there was still more than half a year left until the realization of his plan. And for the moment, the events were unfolding according to the American scenario.
Few months after Talibs' visit to Washington, secret talks began between them and the representatives of the Northern Alliance. Furthermore, the Central Asian capitals were visited by Yan Kalitsky (White House adviser for the CIS states), and Robert G. Card (US Deputy Minister

Robert G. Card
Robert G. Card
of Energy). Following this, the Turkmen President came to Washington. On the 23rd of April, there was a meeting between the two leaders. As soon as the month of May, the American representative in the UN, Bill Richardson, arrived in Kabul. With his direct participation, and with the assistance from the Pakistanis, the backstage contacts between the Talibs and their adversaries were activated. They continued during the next two months, and were supposed to end by signing a cease-fire approximately till the end of August. It was expected that after this a national unity government would be created, naturally opening a way to construction of the gas pipeline.
Powerful blasts in the morning of August, the 7th, in Nairobi and Dar As-Salam destroyed all these plans. As it had to be expected, Washington's reaction followed soon after. On the 20th of August, the Pentagon delivered a missile attack on the Afghani territory. Few days later, Talibs' envoy in the UAE, Mohammed Madani declared: "After these totally unjustified missile strikes, we are in the state of war with the USA".
American diplomats and the representatives of UNOCAL had vanished from

President of Russia V. Putin (l), Political leader of Northern Alliance B. Rabbani (c), and President of Tajikistan I. Rahmonov
President of Russia V. Putin (L),
Political leader of
Northern Alliance B. Rabbani (C),
and President of Tajikistan I. Rahmonov
Afghanistan. Further work on the gas pipeline project became prospectless. Negotiating process terminated. Getting unspoken support from Tajikistan and Russia, the troops of Ahmad Shah Massoud made an effort to take the offensive. Although the latter had been successfully beaten off by the Talibs, the threat to Russian interests in the region passed away…

Suspicious coincidence

On the 18th of September, 1981, the Soviet official daily Pravda published the statement by the USSR

Anwar Sadat make a speech in Israeli Parliament, Nov, 1977
Anwar Sadat's speech
in Israeli Parliament, Nov, 1977
Ministry of Foreign Affairs as to the aggravation of the relations with Egypt. In the 1950s – 1960s, this Arab country was Kremlin's main strategic partner in the Middle East. The situation had changed after the death of the President Nasser, and Anwar Sadat's coming into power in autumn, 1970. Step by step Moscow had lost all of its influence over Cairo. In the summer, 1972, Egyptian leader demanded a withdrawal of the thousands of Soviet troops from the country. The following year, after the war with Israel, Sadat made his final choice, when he agreed to negotiate with his adversary under the US aegis.

Sadat assassination, Oct, 1981
Sadat assassination, Oct, 1981
This dialogue finished with signing the Camp David agreements. Egypt's rapprochement with the USA, and the peace agreement with Israel caused Kremlin's fury. Moscow finally lost its most important outpost in the Middle East. As a result, its positions in the region had been considerably weakened. Hereafter, the Soviet Union began to support almost openly the adversaries of Sadat in the Arab world. This made the relations between the two countries even more complicated. In the first half of October, 1981, several officials of the Soviet embassy were accused of espionage by the Egyptian authorities. In response, Moscow recalled its ambassador from Cairo. The staff of Egypt's Defense Attaché Office was instructed to leave the USSR in seven days.
Publication in Pravda reflected the Kremlin's position concerning these events. Its last passage contained a hardly concealed threat towards the Egyptian regime: "The Soviet side leaves itself the right to undertake any necessary actions directed toward protection of its interests". After two and a half weeks, during military parade in Cairo, the President Sadat was killed by the officer, who was member of the radical Islamic organization Al-Jihad.

21.07.2005
Soviet Past of Worldwide Jihad
Michel Elbaz, AIA general coordinator
Previous article

Ayman al-Zawahiri is today the number two in Al-Qaeda, and the first-rate ideologist of worldwide jihad movement. He had a great influence over the worldview of Osama bin Laden himself, and played one of the key roles in preparation of September 11, 2001 attacks. He also gained wide publicity as the leader of international organization Al-Jihad al-Jadid, which, in the 1990s stood, behind many of big terrorist attacks against Hosni Mubarak regime in Egypt and beyond it. Before that, al-Zawahiri became famous as the participant of the Arab voluntary movement in Afghanistan, in the period of Soviet occupation. Further on, he has been actively supporting the Mojahedin in the Balkans, in the Northern Caucasus, and in the Middle East.
Al-Zawahiri's theoretical writings and his practical participation in jihad favored the emergence of a mythical image of this man. However, al-Zawahiri's way to the summit of the jihad movement began only after he left Egypt for Afghanistan for the second time, in 1986, and since then never returned to his mother country. Rich epos that was further on put together about this man by his numerous followers is almost free of references to the events, from which his career had started. Together with this, some little-known details in his biography of that time present this ominous and still puzzling personage in a totally new light.

Jihad on secret services' order

Shukri Ahmad Mustafa
Shukri Ahmad Mustafa
It is known that the ideology of the modern Islamic fundamentalism emerged in the first half of the 1960s. President's Nasser repressions against the Muslim Brotherhood gave a push to it. As a result, viewpoints of many young activists of this organization had undergone a radicalization, which was reflected in the writings of the well-known Sayyid Muhammad Qutb. Under the influence of his ideas, after Anwar Sadat's rise to power (at the end of 1970), first radical groups emerged beyond the framework of the Muslim Brotherhood. Jamaat Al-Takfir Wal-Hijra appeared earlier then the others, under the leadership of Shukri Ahmad Mustafa. As a whole, he gathered about half a thousand adherers. As his representative in the Upper Egypt Shukri Mustafa assigned the Palestinian, Salih Abdallah Siriyah. Not long before their meeting, the latter one had founded his own group – Shabab Muhammad – that counted a little more than a hundred members.
Salah Siriyah thought that an Islamic state in Egypt could be created only after a military coup d'Etat.

Salih Abdallah Siriyah
Salih Abdallah Siriyah
He paid special attention to propaganda among the cadets of the military institutions. In spring, 1974, Siriyah and his men undertook an unsuccessful attempt to seize Cairo Military Academy. After that, his group was smashed up. This, however, did not have any impact on the activity of Shukri Mustafa. His organization persisted till the mid-summer, 1977. After several militant actions, most of its members were arrested. Mustafa and four of his closest associates were executed.
It is after the arrest of Salah Siriyah and Shukri Mustafa that the fact of their close ties with the Libyan secret services came into light. Siriyah even acknowledged that he personally met with Muammar Qaddafi. It followed from the evidence of the group's members that they had undergone their training in Libya, and received the arms and money from this country. Almost the same was told during the trial by the devotees of Shukri Mustafa. In both cases, the final goal was the overthrow of Anwar Sadat. In the first half of the 1970s, Qaddafi became one of the sworn enemies of the Egyptian President. In this the Libyan leader based himself upon the growing Kremlin's support. Soviet leaders saw Libya as an alternative for their lost outpost in Egypt, and as a counterweight to Sadat's regime.
As a consequence, Soviet arms' deliveries to Libya were considerably increased. Number of the Soviet

Sadat (L) and Qaddafi
Sadat (R) and Qaddafi (1971)
military advisors and secret services' representatives grew as well. No wonder that during the investigation several Salah Siriyah's adherents stated that the Russian-speaking instructors were present in process of their training in the Libyan camps…

Made in USSR

A year after Salah Siriyah group was smashed up, a part of its former members assembled once again. Some escaped the arrest; others came off with short term of imprisonment. They were leaded by one of Siriyah's confidants, Muhammad Salim al-Rahhal. His closest associate was Isam ad-Din al-Qamri, armored troops Major. Later on, their group united with several other groups, and formed a backbone of the Al-Jihad organization. Al-Qamri became one of its main military leaders, being inferior only to one person – Abbud al-Zumar, military intelligence Colonel. Their rivalry over the leadership was fed by the doctrinal contradictions. Al-Qamri, being Salah Siriyah's follower, stood for the immediate regime overturn by military methods. Main role in such a scenario he gave to armored forces. His rival, on the contrary, preferred not to hurry in performing an overturn. His main bet was on the intelligence and commando units.
As a consequence of these contradictions, Al-Jihad cell led by al-Qamri was becoming more and more standalone. It almost wholly consisted of his former comrades-in-arms. Part of them were previously linked with Salah Siriyah. Al-Qamri's group had one more particularity: part of its members were graduates of the Soviet higher educational institutions. After return to their home country, and Anwar Sadat's rise to power, some of them cooperated with the Soviet military intelligence (GRU) until the middle of 1972.
Such was the company, which absorbed young Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was recruited by al-Qamri himself. Preparing to military coup d'Etat, his men were hiding arms in the medical storehouse of one of the Cairo hospitals. Al-Zawahiri, who worked there, helped them to do it. He was in the special confidence of cell's chieftain, who had a great influence over the formation of his views. Al-Qamri got killed in a firefight, in the summer of 1988. It was not only the ideas that the future architect of worldwide jihad got from him, but also certain connections, which had no small share in framing his destiny…

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