POLL: Two of Four Schwarzenegger Propositions Leading (actually 3 of 4 is leading)

Business Wire ^ | Oct. 31, 2005 | Business Wire

[FairOpinion]

The second wave of the Stanford University/Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks (S/H/KN) internet poll conducted during the final week of October shows two of the four propositions supported by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger with comfortable leads, one narrowly ahead, and one trailing badly.

The latest poll results show Proposition 74 (teacher tenure) slightly ahead, 53-47, but with a margin that is within the sampling error of the poll. The two most controversial propositions appear to be heading in opposite directions. Proposition 75 (public employee union dues) has a comfortable lead, 64-36, but Proposition 76 (state budget process) trails by double digits, 45-55. Finally, Proposition 77 (redistricting), supported by most of the state's newspapers and an array of good government groups, leads 55-45. These results appear to be relatively insensitive to variations in voter turnout, but in all four cases, the lower the turnout the higher the support for the proposition.

Compared to the early October poll, this more recent wave of the S/H/KN poll shows higher levels of support for three of the four propositions supported by the governor. Support for Proposition 75 (public employee union dues) has declined, but the proposition still has a solid lead.

Four other propositions appear on the November 8 ballot. Proposition 73 (parental consent) has a significant lead, 58-42. Two propositions address prescription drugs and both show virtually equal levels of support and opposition. Proposition 78, supported by the pharmaceutical companies, stands at 51-49, while Proposition 79, supported by consumer groups, stands at 50-50. Proposition 80, regulating electric service providers, trails 46-54.

The S/H/KN internet polls differ from conventional telephone polls in having respondents fill out a replica of the actual ballot. This procedure offers more anonymity and a closer resemblance to the choice people actually face in the voting booth. It results in fewer undecideds than are recorded in conventional polls.

The study results and survey questions are available at http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp/.

Methodological Note

The second wave of the Stanford University/Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks poll was conducted between October 24 and October 28 using the Knowledge Networks web-enabled panel, which provides a representative sample of Californian households (see http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp).

Of the 1,616 adults invited to participate in the survey, 803 (50%) completed the survey in time for inclusion in the analysis. Of these cases, 585 (73%) were randomly assigned to the condition of receiving the ballot questions. Of these 585 cases, 378 (65%) reported that they definitely intend to vote. The analyses presented in this report are based on the interviews with these 378 respondents. The sampling margin of error for the total sample of 378 likely voters is 5 percentage points.

The survey results were weighted to U.S. Census population benchmarks for adults residing in the State of California in terms of age, race/ethnicity, education obtainment, and urban/rural.

[FairOpinion]

Looks to me that prop. 74-77, incl 76, have a fighting chance. It will be "turnout, turnout, turnout".

Also note how close Prop 78 and 79 are. Consider that, when voting against both, you may be helping the worst of the worst: Prop 79. THe one passing with the most votes will become law.

====

THE CA PROPOSITIONS; Democratic and Republican activists discuss the propositions
Dean urges voters to reject measures governor supports [California]
Davis opposes Schwarzenegger's reform initiatives
CA: Feinstein to oppose Schwarzenegger's special election initiatives
John Alden (Marin cnty Dem Party chairman): Vote no on Prop 76 - we need better leaders
Top Democratic leaders at Penmar Park rally to 'swat' governor's special election measures. Key note speaker: Angelides, Dem candidate for governor
McClintock's recommendations for CA Propositions
Summary of Recommendations on the CA Propositions by various organizations and parties
CA: McClintock stumps for governor's ballot initiatives
Ad watch: McClintock in radio spot supporting Prop. 76 (includes actual text)
Supporters of the CA Propositions 74-77 include CA Club for Growth, Howard Jarvis Taxpayer Association, Ray Haynes, San Fernando Valley Town Hall Conservatives, Republican Party, and many others. Click on the link for a more comprehensive list.
And you can see from links above who are the ones opposing them: Democrats, Unions, Gray Davis, Howard Dean, various Dem party chairmen, etc.

[Mr. Jeeves]

I'll bet they all win. Then the liberals will find a Thelton Henderson-type to throw them all out in court.

[FairOpinion]

Props. 78, 79 backers make the difference

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1502178/posts

"For one, Prop. 79 is backed by labor and consumer groups, while the pharmaceutical industry sponsored Prop. 78. Prop. 78 relies on the voluntary cooperation of drugmakers to negotiate discounts. In contrast, Prop. 79 threatens to ban manufacturers from selling drugs to the state's $4 billion Medi-Cal program if sufficient rebates are not met.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed Prop. 78, the industry's measure, which is not surprising because it is virtually identical to legislation he supported last year that died in committee hearing. The pharmaceutical industry gathered enough signatures to put Prop. 78 on the ballot as a challenge to Prop. 79. "

[FairOpinion]

I think the Dems are most terrified of 75 and 77 and both of them look like will pass.

I hope 76 passes too, so Arnold will have something to hold over the heads of the Dem Legislature, giving him a better negotiating power, when he is demanding spending cuts and the legislature doesn't want to cooperate.

[martin_fierro]

GET OUT & VOTE!

Send FReepmail if you want on/off SVP list
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The List of Ping Lists

[Pukin Dog]

Arnold will sweep. All four. The polling is completely rigged down here. I would guess that all the initiatives are ahead in Arnold's favor right this minute.

[therut]

Does anyone know of any polls on the San Francisco handgun ban?????????

[newzjunkey]

I hope you're right.

I've heard Arnold will be in San Diego on Saturday stumping at Montgomery Field at a public rally to fire up GOP and reform-friendly voters.

PLEASE: Get out the vote! This is our chance to continue the recall and rescuing California from the Democrat & Union-Boss Cabals' failed policies which are trying to destroy this state and enslave the most hard-working people into providing give-aways to the lay-abouts, baby-mammas, drug runners and illegals.

Arnold has also endorsed Prop 73 although that is rarely mentioned in these pieces.

[bboop]

I think Arnold will win, too. John and Ken are doing a bus tour of the state with Arnold this week. That always revs up the voters. We like him, even tho he's a RINO. Sooooo much better than Gray Davis.

[Proud_USA_Republican]

75 and 77 finally will bring parity back to California politics.

The union scumbags and demlib monopoly is being busted.

[FairOpinion]

It will all depend on the turnout.

Now even Moveon.org is getting into the act, against the propositions, of course. And Angelides is trying to have an impact.



Liberal groups (Moveon.org) try to link special election to broader GOP agenda

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1513072/posts


Open letter from Phil Angelides (opposing Schwarzenegger and the Propositions)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1513094/posts


"On November 8th, Californians can put a stop to what Schwarzenegger started by joining Senator Barbara Boxer, Senator Dianne Feinstein and me in voting NO on Propositions 73 – 77 and defeating the governor’s attempt to bring the Bush agenda to California. Then we can unite to put California back on the path to hope and prosperity.

Phil Angelides "

[Kay]

Wow. Good news.

I've been watching the RealClearPolitics website for the California polls. Their latest posting was the PPIP poll which had all of Arnold's propositions losing -- of course, the MSM was touting it. I wasn't too concerned because I suspected that the PPIP poll was either a liberal pollster or they weren't doing likely voters.


The Hoover Institute is solid and this poll is much more palatable. Heh. Heh.

[Kay]

Dear Phil -- Boxer, Feinstein, and you only get one vote each. Too bad, so sad. I'm glad.

[Kay]

Thought you might be interested in this news. Doubt you see it in your local newspapers.

[Michael.SF.]

Thanks for the bump. Your right, have not seen the polloing info in papers.

Not sure of the local news because I rarely watch it.

[ken5050]

After the initiatives all pass, which judge have the Dems lined up to toss them out?

[Kay]

Sad chuckle.

[ken5050]

Actually, I kind of hope they do try it...they always tend to overreach and overplay their hand..

[SiliconValleyGuy]

Thanks for the ping, but I didn't need the reminder. NOTHING could keep me away from the polls this time. I've been out of the country on business, but specifically made it a point to be back in time to take part. Absentee ballots sometimes have a habit of "getting lost."

[martin_fierro]

Absentee ballots sometimes have a habit of "getting lost."

'Frisco area ballot boxes have a bad habit of going swimming.