Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[laz]

I suppose the outer eyewall is the one she had at landfall in Mexico, which expanded as she weakened over land. Now she's developing a new, inner one. Sort of a reverse EWRC.

Just another surprise from the 2005 season.

[Chanticleer]

Birds seem to have an inate sense of impending danger.

Legend goes that the reason the ibis is the mascot for the University of Miami is that is the last bird to leave when a hurricane is on its way.

The only Hurricanes we love -- Let's go 'Canes! (My apologies to the Seminoles, Knights, Bulls, and, uh, 'Gators... I guess.)

[exhaustedmomma]

After Katrina reaching me all the way up the MS river to Vicksburg, I will never underestimate the reach of any hurricane. Katrina knocked out our electricity for 5 days.

Good grief... I had no idea Katrina went all the way to Vicksburg! I thought McComb or Hattiesburg or maybe even whatever is just south of Brookhaven... but not Vicksburg. mercy!!!!!!!!
I have to tried to keep up, but haven't noticed... are your daughter and grandbabies okay? I remember summer before last the terrible ordeal they got stuck in. Hope all is well with them!!

[laz]

Don Noe was talking again on ABC, just after Ed Rappaport. Both are concerned with possible intensification to Cat 3.

A couple of days ago, the general idea was that she'd strengthen to Cat 3 after hitting the GOM, then gradually weaken on approach. Instead, she's holding steady at Cat 2, with the possibility of going up to Cat 3 as she approaches. If so, it seems to me intensification may happen later in the approach than first thought, holding off the effects of shear and shortening the time for any weakening afterward.

[laz]

New reports from Cozumel at http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml about heavy destruction and tremendous damage.

[Sam Cree]

Yeah, I saw it. Hoping that its track bends to the left after landfall as he showed. Everything to hit the Gulf coast this year took a jog to the right on landfall. Even Katrina hitting us did that.

[steveegg]

Wilma's speeding up, both in wind and in motion -

183 
URNT12 KNHC 231807
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/17:50:10Z
B. 23 deg 02 min N
  085 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2778 m
D. NA  kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 216 deg 085 kt
G. 135 deg 059 nm
H.         963 mb
I.   8 C/ 3046 m
J.  14 C/ 3050 m
K.  13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.06 / 2  nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA        OB 21
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z

Movement in the last 1:16 to the northeast (56 degrees) at 13 mph. Wilma now 260 miles west-southwest (246 degrees) of Key West and 312 miles southwest (228 degrees) of Naples.

[jeffers]

From this image, Gulf Coast region, Cat 2, forward motion 20 kts, it shows penetration of winds between 55 and 80 knots to a hundred miles, give or take, (match the color scales, there are several similar shades of red) and a very few areas of 80 to 90 knot winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/GC09020.GIF

[steveegg]

Forgot to mention that it is pretty much in line with the 4 am forecast (it actually splits the difference between that forecast and the 1 pm advisory).

[Caipirabob]

Hey, thank you, Jeffers!

To be honest, I pushed myself physically to the point where I could not attempt this and be safe, it's 18' high over the pool and I'd need scafolding to get to much of it.

I'll be perfectly happy if the house and roof are intact after the storm.

I'll complain and moan about the patio, but I'll be smiling on the inside.

You have reminded me to shore up the support on the garage doors, though. The cross support scheme should work perfectly on them. I have some steel pieces that should do the trick and I should be able to do it without killing myself.

Thanks again!

[jeffers]

Whoa, the 1pm position is 15 miles east of the 0400 projection for 4pm.

Wilma's picking up the pace earlier than expected.

[laz]

Hurricane force winds for the east coast from Palm Beach to the south.

They really should have used different colors instead of all those shades of red. ;)

[laz]

Wilma's speeding up, both in wind and in motion

I think she's gonna hit while intensifying.

And jeffers, she might do a Rita and outrun her surge.

[blam]

"Everything to hit the Gulf coast this year took a jog to the right on landfall. Even Katrina hitting us did that."

Yup. Don't know why but it looks like something we've come to expect.

I was looking at the satellite image, the outer bands are almooost up here, not quite though. I could use a little rain.

[NautiNurse]

C60

Yowser

[dixie sass]

It seems that a lot of people forget that a Category 1 can do as much damage as a three or four. It always amazes me how many people refuse to leave, especially those on the water, just because it's a little old cat one storm.

[laz]

What happened to the smaller, inner eye? Don Noe was pointing it out a while ago. Now it's gone?

[steveegg]

The outer wall has been there for quite a while. Guess it won out over the inner one.

[steveegg]

Guess it disappeared.

[tiredoflaundry]

Pasco County schools closed bump.