Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[twin2]

A couple other things I am doing that I've learned to do.... Do all your wash. Vacuum your house. It will be awhile before you can do either if your electric goes out.

You forgot take a shower and wash your hair!

[steveegg]

Current report from the Hunters - pressure at 963 mb, max flight-level winds at 90 knots -

922 
URNT12 KNHC 231650
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/16:34:30Z
B. 22 deg 54 min N
  085 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2788 m
D. 65  kt
E.  45 deg 089 nm
F. 140 deg 080 kt
G. 045 deg 097 nm
H.         963 mb
I. 12  C/ 3041 m
J.  14 C/ 3048 m
K.  14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO10-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2  nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA        OB 14
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 15:35:30
INNER EYEWALL STILL DEVELOPING - OPEN WEST.  OUTER EYEWALL IS CLOSED.

Movement in the 1:36 prior to 12:34 pm EDT to the northeast (45 degrees) at 11 mph.

[sheikdetailfeather]

I definitely intend to make a pot of coffee and put in my thermos just in case the power goes out. I wrote down the power company phone number to report outage in advance. Maybe get a bag of ice later for the cooler. Have batteries for radio and a weather radio. All important papers and family pics are packed and ready to roll if need be. List made out if have to pack quickly.

[laz]

I had a disposable camera handy, so I went out and took some photos around my house, then went to take some shots of hers through the fence. Guess what? She's out there right now taking stuff inside.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

" Guess what? She's out there right now taking stuff inside."

Maybe she's been lurking on FR!

[NautiNurse]

She's out there right now taking stuff inside.

Did she catch you peeping with the camera? ;o)

[Guenevere]

You're in Sarasota, I'm on the east coast...

..but same thing, not a single thing stirring this AM....no birds, frogs, anything!

Can anyone tell me what that means?

Do the animals know something we don't?......have they gone somewhere to wait it out?

We usually have ducks, herons. etc. feeding in our lake...

...not today.

[laz]

Insert appropriate epithet or exclamatory remark above.

She's gonna get faster and faster as she approaches, so I guess it won't be a steady onset of conditions. They'll magnify quickly as she arrives.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Ch 13 now showing recorded Jeb conference.

[laz]

Did she catch you peeping with the camera? ;o)

Nope. I guess she was just putting it off as much as possible.

[MarMema]

About 5 minutes before we had our 6.9 quake our dog went beserko and began barking like he had gone insane.
My oldest daughter was outside in the goat pen and I heard them begin yelling. I was still trying to figure out what the heck was going on when the quake hit.

[Fawn]

COFFEE was a lifesaver for me during Frances and Jeanne....I had made tons of coffee from my autodrip and put it in pitchers....and was able to heat it up on my gas stove in a pot. The instant coffee just isn't the same.

[Humvee]

All is well here and we are fully prepared. Expect hurricane force winds for about two hours around 8am tomorrow. Those hurricane winds will cover all of the state below Lake Okeeechobee. All the public authorities are warning about lots of power outages, but now we've got the generator. Good news is the temperature will be much cooler right after Wilma thanks to the cold front. Plus the wife got a couple of bags of chocolate.

[laz]

Concentric eyewalls, with the inner one developing. Doesn't EWRC involve the inner one falling apart and an outer one shrinking to take its place? Is the formation of the inner, tighter eyewall a sign of strengthening?

[laz]

I'm sure the animals can sense the increasing drop in pressure, and instinct tells them to hide.

[steveegg]

We could be seeing something new with that.

[mcshot]

Fascinating short article.
Thanks for posting the link.

mc

[not-alone]

While you are at it leave a full tub of water in your washer , it can come in handy after.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 33a
Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on October 23, 2005

 

...Category two Wilma gradually accelerating northeastward...
...Could strengthen today or tonight over warm Gulf waters...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys...including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward...and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward...including Lake
Okeechobee.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to Flagler Beach.

 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northeastern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula from San Felipe to Tulum...including Cozumel
and the nearby islands.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio.  A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth.  A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 23.1 north... longitude 85.3 west or about 240
miles... 390 km... west-southwest of Key West Florida... or about
300 miles... 485 km... southwest of the southwestern coast of the
Florida Peninsula.

 
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph... 19 km/hr.  A
continued northeastward motion and a gradual increase in forward
speed are expected today and Monday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Some strengthening is possible today or tonight.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.  Within the past few hours... wind gusts to
64 mph... 103 km/hr... were reported at La Palma on the northern
coast of western Cuba.  Also...the Havana Cuba meteorological
office recently measured a wind gust to 62 mph... 100 km/hr.

 
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft was 963 mb...28.44 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 9 to 15 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall.  Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay...as well as in Lake Okeechobee.  Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.  Storm surge flooding along the Yucatan Peninsula
and the nearby islands should gradually subside as Wilma moves
away.

 
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10
to 15 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and 2 to
4 inches across the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated
maximum storm total amounts approaching 50 inches.  Rainfall across
southern Florida including the Keys through Tuesday is expected to
be 4 to 8 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible.

 
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to propagate into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  These swells could affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast today and tonight.

 
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the central and southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys today and tonight.

 

Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...23.1 N... 85.3 W.  Movement
toward...northeast near 12 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 963 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 PM CDT.

 
Forecaster Knabb

[Chanticleer]

If you have a camp stove, those toads might be nice with a little garlic butter and a nice riesling....