Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[laz]

A lot of folk in this neighborhood have already boarded up, remembering 92.

My neighbors across the street took off two days ago. Packed their trailer and left. I think they were seeing what I was seeing.

Meanwhile, the guy in the house behind me has no shutters and is now nailing plywood.

[Ellesu]

http://www.leeeoc.com/publications/documents/2005/10/20051022_addevacorder.pdf

compare to Louisiana.......

[mewzilla]

I'll post some info from his blog later on today but basically he is calling for a rogue superstorm off the East Coast Monday night through Wednesday which will result in hurricane force gusts of wind on the SE New England Coast and a windswept "tree killing" snowstorm in the interior of New England all the way down to central PA.

Okay, I wasn't hallucinating when I thought I caught the tail end of something like this on the news a while ago. Nuts.

[laz]

That would translate to a forward speed of 29.5 mph, raising the projected 85 kt (98 mph) winds to 127 mph, high Cat-3, low Cat-4 level, south of the center.

That's what I'm bracing myself for. My relatives keep hearing Cat 2 on tv and don't grasp the concept of Wilma feeling like a category higher south of the eye. I think they really believed the reports a few days ago that we'd get a Cat 1 or even just a TS. I never believed that.

[jeffers]

There's a single viewer where you can see most, if not all of the available data, here:

http://seamless.usgs.gov/website/seamless/viewer.php

..but you can't alter sea level, and you need a fat pipe to the net or a big cache to really maximize the potential there.

If you download the data, Global Mapper will let you alter sea level and you can download a free demo from this link that will serve your basic needs without expiring, though you can only load 4 files at a time and export requires ingenuity unless you register, about $120 IIRC:

http://www.globalmapper.com/

Those two tools will take you a pretty long way, but if you want to get deeper into it, this is a site you need to get familiar with as well:

http://software.geocomm.com/index.html

Tons of free data, software, and a forum for questions.

If I wanted to start into GIS knowing what I know now, I'd start with the largest hard drive I could find, pull down 3DEM (good 3D viewing and for draping sat imagery over elevation models), MicroDEM (good for merging multiple elevation datasets), and Global Mapper good all around, sea level change and excellent slope analysis routine), then download the entire earth in the GTOPO 30 format as a base for reference. There's about 30 of the GTOPO datasets, at 16 megs apiece zipped up for download, and they'll take up 55 megs of drive space each, unzipped, for a total footprint around a gig and a half. Once you have those, you can do quick and dirty low res work for anywhere on earth, and download high res data as needed, from the first link in this post.

[Dog Gone]

That ain't possible. Everyone knows hurricane season is OVER!

[Sam Cree]

I just got back from Publix, the one on US 1 and about 148th. It wasn't crowded amazingly, but they were nearly out of paper plates. A carnival atmosphere inside, everyone laughing and talking like they were at a party. I guess they are excited that the die is cast and the storm is finally going to come in.

Hoping your cat 3 scenario is wrong!

Meanwhile, I have a barometer, uncalibrated, but as of this morning the glass is falling rapidly after holding steady for the last few days.

[laz]

Lots of birds hanging around here this morning

Not a single bird around my house today. Usually the wires behind my back yard are full of them. The big toads are nowhere to be seen either. There's a little bit of breeze, and it's actually sunny, with the sun poking through gaps in the cloud cover.

[jeffers]

My real question concerns the degree to which forward velocity adds to the forward right quadrant winds. At the nuts and bolts level, does the Vortex data measure storm relative wind or do they measure earth relative wind?

That's what they're using to posit the NHC projections. If they measure storm relative winds, then that will add to the forward velocity. If they measure earth relative winds, it's already factored in.

[sheikdetailfeather]

WFTV in Orlando says it probably will come in at Marco Island as a Cat 2.

[Sam Cree]

You know, since you mention it, I suppose it is possible that the forward speed of Andrew, 20 mph, helped raise it to a cat 5.

However, if we are far away enough from the center of this one, it will help greatly tomorrow. Every mile can count. There will be tornados, of course. I'm generally not pleased!

[Caipirabob]

That's what I'm bracing myself for. My relatives keep hearing Cat 2 on tv and don't grasp the concept of Wilma feeling like a category higher south of the eye. I think they really believed the reports a few days ago that we'd get a Cat 1 or even just a TS. I never believed that.

Yikes. I'm fairly comfortable with our preparations, all our Western exposure is protected. Both boarded up and there's several 4' raised burms. I still think I'm going to lose the screened patio, screen and supports. The roof's an older roof so I'll pray for the best. The rest of the house is solid CBS (I know, I spent this morning drilling through it.) And finally we have two refuge areas if we have a breech.

It may be time for a beer or six...

[Diddle E. Squat]

FNC's William Lingerie, acting like the typical reporter idiot with a poor choice of overdramatic words. Talking about how hot and smelly the shelters are, "These people are starving! Starving for information. They are dying! Dying to get out." Nothing to indicate that they were actually starving or dying, just miserable and scared.

Paige Hopkins is awful with her schtick, too.

[SamAdams76]

That's called "wishcasting".

[Elle Bee]

gentle breeze, sunny skies .... no birds geckos or iguana

Schooner Wharf just opened .... full bar

.

[dirtboy]

I think the best thing you can do to explain the situation is to pull up some pictures of the damage that Isabel caused and tell folks that Isabel was "just" a Cat 2.

Wilma and Isabel are going to be pretty similar in their Cat 2 impacts from what I can see. Former Cat 5 storms with very large eyes and large windfields to push a lot of surge and provide extended periods of strong winds.

[laz]

I guess they are excited that the die is cast and the storm is finally going to come in.

I can empathize. After all the waiting and anticipation, the models going crazy and switching back and forth, Wilma crawling at a snail's pace and stalling, it's like, "Okay, let's get it on, already." As Bastardi might say, let's get this endgame into play.

[dirtboy]

Hoping your cat 3 scenario is wrong!

I think it might be.

I think the max sustained winds are just that. So if the hurricane is moving 10 mph, the hurricane hunters will find winds 20mph faster in the right front quadrant than they do in the left rear. But the highest sustained windspeed is what is reported.

That is why, with a weak cat 1 wind map, you'll often see no hurricane-force winds to the left of the center.

But I think Laz's advice to treat this like a Cat 3 is still sound - recall that Katrina was "just" a boderline Cat 4 at landfall but still produced surge worse than Cat 5 Camille.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Sen. Bill Nelson gabbing on CNN. Wow, not exactly a bright bulb...

[jeffers]

There's a way to brace that porch up significantly, we use it to help hold down tents during mountain storms in the Rockies and higher. The general idea is to fix the midpoint of each vertical support pole in space, so that it can't move, and the technique used is rope under tension from at least three different directions.

To minimize the amount of rope needed, a star pattern works best. Starting at a stake (3 foot x half inch rebar will go in easy with a sledge hammer and hold a lot) halfway between two vertical supports, out at a 45 degree (or more) angle from the base of each, run up to a pole's midpoint, down to the next stake, midway between two posts out at 45 degrees, etc., all the way around. Looking down at it from above, the rope will follow a star pattern around the porch. That puts two points of attachment to each pole, and the third happens as follows.

Next you finish it out with X bracing (rope) from corner to corner, again halfway up the vertical poles. You need to know how to tie knots that can be adjusted for tension, use rope that will not stretch under tension, and you have to make sure the guy points can't slide down the poles. Duct tape will work for metal poles, fasteners for wooden ones.

If you're already into those beers, I suggest a double-jacking technique for setting the stakes. In other words, you swing the sledge, while someone else holds the stake.