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Locked on 10/24/2005 2:24:18 AM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
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Posted on 10/22/2005 1:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.
In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.
The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video:
WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Additional Resources:
Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24
They're expecting Wilma to pick up her pace and quickly. After Katrina reaching me all the way up the MS river to Vicksburg, I will never underestimate the reach of any hurricane. Katrina knocked out our electricity for 5 days. Five HOT, HUMID days of record breaking heat, I might add.
sorry for all caps...HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0900Z SUN OCT 23 2005
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE
WARNING NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z....THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA
GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF
SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 86.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 125SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 86.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 86.8W
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.7N 83.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.4N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 49.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 86.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
FORECASTER PASCH
Yes. I am sure by the end of the day Monday the power companies will have a lot to repair. At least it will cool off down here. 90 degree weather is not good with no A/C.
90 with no A/C is like pioneer days. Not pleasant at all.
Tampa area is under tropical storm watch, not hurricane watch. A good indication Wilma's eye is expected no farther north than Charlotte Harbor. I think NautiNurse is gonna luck out, and I'm gonna get smacked by Wilma's dirty side.
Take care y'all. Time to "try" to sleep.
Insomnia on this night of all nights: 48 degrees.
I don't get it. Oh well.
Take care!
This advisory confirms what I've been seeing on the floater for the past hour. Direction has changed from NNE to NE. From 7:15 to 8:15 on the floater, Wilma has shifted to the right of the trajectory she's been following since crossing the coastline. She's turning. I'm positive now she gets no further up the coast than Naples.
Per WESH tv out of Daytona this morning: "The track remains the same. It is the most consistent track she has ever seen. It still comes in around Naples. The storm will now speed up and quickly come towards Florida."
Prayers sent your way, Laz.
My friend is still in Miami, the one who works on the Hawaiian cruise ship. His employer says he doesn't have to report back to Honolulu until next weekend, so he won't be traveling during Wilma. However, that means he's going to be in Miami during the storm. He still refuses to take this seriously, though.
Don't people like this drive you absolutely nuts, the laid-back "manana" types who say "Let's see what happens..."?
Was he reporting live, or is it a taped repeat?
Hard to tell about the beaches, the ocean probably still hasn't receded completely?
I am curious as to how they fared down there, though. Remembering the amount of damage done here by Andrew, which didn't hang around, but moved through at 20 mph. Understanding that Wilma's winds were cat 4, but would have gradually dropped as the day wore on, but still.
If she continues on the trajectory she's on now, it might even be Marco Island.
Center fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that Wilma is moving slowly northeastward...around 045/03. A large and strong mid-tropospheric trough...dropping southeastward from the central United States...will cause the southwesterly steering flow for Wilma to increase substantially over the next couple of days. The hurricane is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula within 24-36 hours. Dynamical track guidance continues to show some spread...with the GFS being the northernmost and north of Lake Okeechobee....and the NOGAPS near the southern side of the envelope near the extreme southern Florida Peninsula. The official track forecast has been shifted just slightly southward and is close to the model consensus and to the NCEP global ensemble mean.
Air Force recon observations indicate that the inner core of Wilma...which was disrupted due to its interaction with land...is becoming slightly better defined. However the eye is still quite large...about 65 N mi across...and ragged. The central pressure has not changed much since the hurricane emerged from northeast Yucatan...and the current intensity of 85 kt is based on peak flight-level winds of 91 kt to the south of the center...and some respect for a central pressure of 961 mb. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is elongated along a NNE-SSW axis with most of the deep convection displaced to the north-northeast of the center. This may be a Harbinger of increasing shear...but it is assumed that Wilma's inner core will be able to at least temporarily redevelop...and that some restrengthening will occur today. However...the global models indicate a substantial increase in vertical shear will occur as Wilma nears the Florida Peninsula... which...along with possible entrainment of drier lower-level air... would lead to weakening. Since the trough interacting with Wilma is quite strong...the cyclone is forecast to become extratropical at a relatively low latitude by about 48 hours.
It is important to stress that one should not focus on the exact forecast track since Wilma has a large wind field and significant impacts will likely be felt well away from the center.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/0900z 22.1n 86.6w 85 kt 12hr VT 23/1800z 23.0n 85.5w 90 kt 24hr VT 24/0600z 24.7n 83.3w 85 kt 36hr VT 24/1800z 27.4n 79.5w 65 kt 48hr VT 25/0600z 32.5n 74.5w 60 kt...extratropical 72hr VT 26/0600z 43.0n 66.0w 55 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 27/0600z 47.5n 59.0w 55 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 28/0600z 49.0n 49.0w 55 kt...extratropical
Yes. Prayers sent to you and all in the path of this storm. WESH is saying the bad news is that this storm is elongating and getting wider but the good news is that the storm is considered to be a hybrid. The eye will not be well defined due to shear. Comes in South of Naples. Exits probably around Jupiter inlet.
Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 32
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on October 23, 2005
...Wilma moving slowly northeastward...still not strengthening...
At 4 am CDT...0900z...the Hurricane Watch is replaced by a Hurricane
Warning north of Jupiter Inlet to Titusville. A Hurricane Warning
is now in effect for all of the Florida Keys...including the Dry
Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the Florida West Coast from
Longboat Key southward...and along the Florida East Coast from
Titusville southward...including Lake Okeechobee.
At 4 am CDT...0900z....the tropical storm watch is replaced by a
Tropical Storm Warning north of Titusville to Flagler Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to Flagler Beach.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Punta
gruesa on the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby
islands...and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect west of
San Felipe to Progreso.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas...
including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 22.1 north... longitude 86.6 west or about 40 miles...65
km... north of Cancun Mexico and about 350 miles... 565 km...
west-southwest of Key West Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph... 6 km/hr...and an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some increase in strength is possible today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a minimum central
pressure of 961 mb...28.38 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 8 to 13 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay...as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding along the Yucatan Peninsula and the nearby islands should
subside as Wilma moves away.
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10
to 15 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated maximum storm total
amounts approaching 50 inches. Rainfall across southern Florida
including the Keys through Tuesday is expected to be 4 to 8
inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to propagate into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. These swells could affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast today.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula
and the Florida Keys today.
Repeating the 4 am CDT position...22.1 N... 86.6 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 961 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am
CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
There are some people on this thread who have elderly parents on Marco Island. I sure hope they changed their minds by now and finally agreed to evacuate! Any luck yet?
According to reports, Playa del Carmen is destroyed. It was right in the western eyewall for several hours when Wilma stalled the first time, directly over Cozumel. Several hours of continuous 140 mph winds, with higher gusts.
Yeah, watches to warnings for Titusville south to Jupiter. Nice to wake up to EWS alarm, not. Boards go up this AM. Where's my FEMA card and how do you use Google Earth to locate the nearest electronics store?
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