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sorry for all caps...HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0900Z SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE
WARNING NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z....THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA
GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF
SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 86.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 125SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 86.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.7N 83.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.4N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 49.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 86.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 32
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 23, 2005

Center fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that
Wilma is moving slowly northeastward...around 045/03.  A large and
strong mid-tropospheric trough...dropping southeastward from the
central United States...will cause the southwesterly steering flow
for Wilma to increase substantially over the next couple of days. 
The hurricane is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula within
24-36 hours.  Dynamical track guidance continues to show some
spread...with the GFS being the northernmost and north of Lake
Okeechobee....and the NOGAPS near the southern side of the envelope
near the extreme southern Florida Peninsula.  The official track
forecast has been shifted just slightly southward and is close to
the model consensus and to the NCEP global ensemble mean.

Air Force recon observations indicate that the inner core of
Wilma...which was disrupted due to its interaction with land...is
becoming slightly better defined.  However the eye is still quite
large...about 65 N mi across...and ragged.  The central pressure
has not changed much since the hurricane emerged from northeast
Yucatan...and the current intensity of 85 kt is based on peak
flight-level winds of 91 kt to the south of the center...and some
respect for a central pressure of 961 mb.  Satellite imagery shows
that the cloud pattern is elongated along a NNE-SSW axis with most
of the deep convection displaced to the north-northeast of the
center.  This may be a Harbinger of increasing shear...but it is
assumed that Wilma's inner core will be able to at least
temporarily redevelop...and that some restrengthening will occur
today.  However...the global models indicate a substantial increase
in vertical shear will occur as Wilma nears the Florida
Peninsula... which...along with possible entrainment of drier
lower-level air... would lead to weakening.  Since the trough
interacting with Wilma is quite strong...the cyclone is forecast to
become extratropical at a relatively low latitude by about 48
hours.


It is important to stress that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track since Wilma has a large wind field and significant
impacts will likely be felt well away from the center.

Forecaster Pasch

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      23/0900z 22.1n  86.6w    85 kt
 12hr VT     23/1800z 23.0n  85.5w    90 kt
 24hr VT     24/0600z 24.7n  83.3w    85 kt
 36hr VT     24/1800z 27.4n  79.5w    65 kt
 48hr VT     25/0600z 32.5n  74.5w    60 kt...extratropical
 72hr VT     26/0600z 43.0n  66.0w    55 kt...extratropical
 96hr VT     27/0600z 47.5n  59.0w    55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT     28/0600z 49.0n  49.0w    55 kt...extratropical

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 32

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on October 23, 2005

...Wilma moving slowly northeastward...still not strengthening...
At 4 am CDT...0900z...the Hurricane Watch is replaced by a Hurricane
Warning north of Jupiter Inlet to Titusville. A Hurricane Warning
is now in effect for all of the Florida Keys...including the Dry
Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the Florida West Coast from
Longboat Key southward...and along the Florida East Coast from
Titusville southward...including Lake Okeechobee.

At 4 am CDT...0900z....the tropical storm watch is replaced by a
Tropical Storm Warning north of Titusville to Flagler Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to Flagler Beach.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Punta
gruesa on the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby
islands...and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect west of
San Felipe to Progreso.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas...
including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 22.1 north... longitude 86.6 west or about 40 miles...65
km... north of Cancun Mexico and about 350 miles... 565 km...
west-southwest of Key West Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph... 6 km/hr...and an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some increase in strength is possible today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a minimum central
pressure of 961 mb...28.38 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 8 to 13 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay...as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding along the Yucatan Peninsula and the nearby islands should
subside as Wilma moves away.

Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10
to 15 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated maximum storm total
amounts approaching 50 inches. Rainfall across southern Florida
including the Keys through Tuesday is expected to be 4 to 8
inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.

Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to propagate into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. These swells could affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast today.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula
and the Florida Keys today.

Repeating the 4 am CDT position...22.1 N... 86.6 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 961 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am
CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

$$