Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[steveegg]

Dean would be #4. We've got Algore kicking off the G(r)eeks, Bubba's set for #2, but we need something for Gamma.

[standingfirm]

OK, that's what I wasn't sure of...the north side is the uglier siee?

[tiredoflaundry]

Gamma = Gorelick?

[standingfirm]

the uglier SIDE.

[steveegg]

There's a thought.

[laz]

Some models are drifting north again

As she's already starting to turn NE, I'm going to go out on a limb and make my prediction. She'll hit no farther north than Naples as a Cat 2 or borderline 3.

[NautiNurse]

Here is some very good news:

... Tornado impacts...
the threat of tornadoes is expected to be nil from Tampa Bay northward... and low south of Tampa Bay... Sunday night and Monday. North winds ushering in much cooler air will ensure stable conditions from Tampa Bay northward. The most unstable conditions will be closer to the center of the storm where tropical air is most abundant.

[realpatriot]

They seem to have survived much better than Mississippi did during Katrina.

I'm sorry, only New Orleans was impacted with Katrina.

Never mind.

[GatorGirl]

As another poster pointed out, those closer to the eye's southern side will get more of a forward motion/onshore storm surge, so that's bad, but as far as rains and storm conditions, the northern portion is usually rainier and more tornadoes are spawned in that NE quadrant.

[HorsePlayer]

You may be referring to the Poison dart frog. Pretty little deadly critters.

Did you mean poison fart dog? I have one of those.

[tiredoflaundry]

:-)

[NautiNurse]

lol! Good one

[GatorGirl]

Where is the front? Has it dipped enough or is Wilma going to beat it to Central Florida?

That front is our salvation in the Tampa Bay area!

[tiredoflaundry]

Thanks for that info!

[Guenevere]

Sweetie, We're not planning on evacuating this time.
..Just gonna board up and hunker down. :)

Thanks though, we could all use the prayers.

[laz]

Did I just hear on TWC that Playa del Carmen was wiped out? If true, I'm not surprised. It spent several hours in the western eyewall when Wilma stalled right over Cozumel.

[sheikdetailfeather]

You need to eat better! hehehe. Local weather just said the storm will enter Fla. 8am and exit the other side at noon! That is trucking!! It is offshore by 2pm and then Tuesday the weather gets better. I am sure it will be rocking and rolling all the while and spawning tornadoes. I love waking up to debris hitting the window and howling wind with constant beeping on The Weather Channel because of tornadoes.

[RDTF]

Oh I hope not - It's so gorgeous there, been there many times (tears)

[GatorGirl]

Selfishly, I sure hope you're right! The predictions were for Charley to head right up Tampa Bay and we had nary a cloud in the sky up here when he made landfall. Although since we have been feeling the effects of Wilma for several days already, I guess we won't escape without a little rotten weather!

[standingfirm]

Good news for us. I'm on a flood plain. Not an "A" flood plain or anything, but close enough the the Braden River, (major tributary of the Manatee River). Don't need a long sustained rain event.