Posted on 10/20/2005 6:18:16 AM PDT by Pokey78
Reader Jack Fulmer sent me the following item, which appeared a century ago — 13 September 1905 — in the Paris edition of the New York Herald:
Holy War WagedPlus ça change, eh? Last week Islamists killed a big bunch of people in Nalchik, the capital of the hitherto more-or-less safe-ish Russian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria. True, in our more sensitive age the Herald Tribune’s current owners, the New York Times, would never dream of headlining such a report ‘Holy War Waged’, though the Muslim insurgents are fighting for a pan-Caucasian Islamic republic from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea.
St. Petersburg: The districts of Zangezur and Jebrail are swarming with Tartar bands under the leadership of chiefs, and in some cases accompanied by Tartar police officials. Green banners are carried and a ‘Holy War’ is being proclaimed. All Armenians, without distinction of sex or age are being massacred. Many thousand Tartar horsemen have crossed the Perso-Russian frontier and joined the insurgents. Horrible scenes attended the destruction of the village of Minkind. Three hundred Armenians were massacred and mutilated. The children were thrown to the dogs and the few survivors were forced to embrace Islamism.
And in the long run it’s hard to see why they won’t get it, the only question being whether it’s still worth getting. Moscow has reduced Grozny to rubble, yet is further than ever from solving its Chechen problem. Moreover, the sheer blundering thuggery of the Russian approach has no merits other than affording Moscow some short-term sadistic pleasure as it exacerbates the situation. The allegedly seething ‘Arab street’, which the West’s media doom-mongers have been predicting for four years will rise up in fury against the Anglo-American infidels, remains as seething as a cul-de-sac in Pinner on a Wednesday afternoon. But the Russian Federation’s Muslim street is real, and on the boil.
Remember the months before 9/11? The new US President had his first meeting with the Russian President. ‘I looked the man in the eye and found him very straightforward and trustworthy,’ George W. Bush said after two hours with Vladimir Putin. ‘I was able to get a sense of his soul.’ I’m all for speaking softly and carrying a big stick, but that’s way too soft; it’s candlelight-dinner-with-the-glow-reflecting-in-the-wine-glass-just-before-you-ask-her-to-dance-to-‘Moonlight-Becomes-You’ soft. Even at the time, many of us felt like yelling at Bush: Get a grip on yourself, man! Lay off the homoerotic stuff about soulmates! This is a KGB apparatchik you’re making eyes at.
But Putin was broadly supportive — or at least not actively non-supportive — on Afghanistan (a very particular case) and Nato expansion (a fait accompli), and some experts started calling Vlad the most Westernised Russian strongman since Peter the Great and cooing about a Russo-American alliance that would be one of the cornerstones of the post-Cold War world.
It’s not like that today. From China to Central Asia to Ukraine, from its covert efforts to maintain Saddam in power to its more or less unashamed patronage of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Moscow has been at odds with Washington over every key geopolitical issue, and a few non-key ones, too, culminating in Putin’s tirade to Bush that America was flooding Russia with sub-standard chicken drumsticks and keeping the best ones for herself. It was a poultry complaint but indicative of a retreat into old-school Kremlin paranoia. Putin was sending America’s chickens home to roost. I wonder if Bush took a second look into the soulful depths of Vladimir’s eyes and decided he wasn’t quite so finger-lickin’ good after all.
Russia’s export of ideology was the decisive factor in the history of the last century. It seems to me entirely possible that the implosion of Russia could be the decisive factor in this new century. As Iran’s nuke programme suggests, in many of the geopolitical challenges to America there’s usually a Russian component somewhere in the background.
In fairness to Putin, even if he was ‘very straightforward and trustworthy’, he’s in a wretched position. Think of the feet of clay of Western European politicians unwilling to show leadership on the Continent’s moribund economy and deathbed demography. Russia has all the EU’s problems to the nth degree, and then some. ‘Post-imperial decline’ is manageable; a nation of psychotic lemmings isn’t. As I’ve noted before in this space, Russia is literally dying. From a population peak in 1992 of 148 million, it will be down to below 130 million by 2015 and thereafter dropping to perhaps 50 or 60 million by the end of the century, a third of what it was at the fall of the Soviet Union. It needn’t decline at a consistent rate, of course. But I’d say it’s more likely to be even lower than 50 million than it is to be over 100 million. The longer Russia goes without arresting the death spiral, the harder it is to pull out of it, and when it comes to the future most Russian women are voting with their foetus: 70 per cent of pregnancies are aborted.
A smaller population needn’t necessarily be a problem, and especially not for a state with too much of the citizenry on the payroll. But Russia is facing simultaneously a massive ongoing drain of wealth out of the system. Whether or not Dominic Midgley was correct the other day in his assertion that the émigré oligarchs prefer London to America, I cannot say. But I notice my own peripheral backwater of Montreal has also filled up with Russkies whose impressive riches have been acquired recently and swiftly. It doesn’t help the grim demographic scenario if your economic base is also being systematically eaten away.
Add to that the unprecedented strains on a ramshackle public health system. Russia is the sick man of Europe, and would still look pretty sick if you moved him to Africa. It has the fastest-growing rate of HIV infection in the world. From virtually no official Aids cases at the time Putin took office, in the last five years more Russians have tested positive than in the previous 20 for America. The virus is said to have infected at least 1 per cent of the population, the figure the World Health Organisation considers the tipping point for a sub-Saharan-sized epidemic. So at a time when Russian men already have a life expectancy in the mid-50s — lower than in Bangladesh — they’re about to see Aids cut them down from the other end, killing young men and women of childbearing age, and with them any hope of societal regeneration. By 2010, Aids will be killing between a quarter and three-quarters of a million Russians every year. It will become a nation of babushkas, unable to muster enough young soldiers to secure its borders, enough young businessmen to secure its economy or enough young families to secure its future. True, there are regions that are exceptions to these malign trends, parts of Russia that have healthy fertility rates and low HIV infection. Can you guess which regions they are? They start with a ‘Mu-’ and end with a ‘-slim’.
So the world’s largest country is dying and the only question is how violent its death throes are. Yesterday’s Russia was characterised by Churchill as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Today’s has come unwrapped: it’s a crisis in a disaster inside a catastrophe. Most of the big international problems operate within certain geographic constraints: Africa has Aids, the Middle East has Islamists, North Korea has nukes. But Russia’s got the lot: an African-level Aids crisis and an Islamist separatist movement sitting on top of the biggest pile of nukes on the planet. Of course, the nuclear materials are all in ‘secure’ facilities — more secure, one hopes, than the secure public buildings in Nalchik that the Islamists took over with such ease last week.
Russia is the bleakest example on the planet of how we worry about all the wrong things. For 40 years the environmentalists have warned us that the jig was up: there are too many people (see Paul Ehrlich’s comic masterpiece of 1970 The Population Bomb) and too few resources — as the Club of Rome warned in its 1972 landmark study The Limits To Growth, the world will run out of gold by 1981, of mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and gas by 1993. Instead, poor old Russia is awash with resources but fatally short of Russians — and, in the end, warm bodies are the one indispensable resource.
What would you do if you were Putin? What have you got to keep your rotting corpse of a country as some kind of player? You’ve got nuclear know-how — which a lot of ayatollahs and dictators are interested in. You’ve got an empty resource-rich eastern hinterland — which the Chinese are going to wind up with one way or the other. That was the logic, incidentally, behind the sale of Alaska: in the 1850s, Grand Duke Konstantin Nikolaevich, the brother of Alexander II, argued that the Russian empire couldn’t hold its North American territory and that one day either Britain or the United States would simply take it, so why not sell it to them first? The same argument applies today to the 2,000 miles of the Russo–Chinese border. Given that even alcoholic Slavs with a life expectancy of 56 will live to see Vladivostok return to its old name of Haishenwei, Moscow might as well flog it to Beijing instead of just having it snaffled out from under.
That’s the danger for America — that most of what Russia has to trade is likely to be damaging to US interests. In its death throes, it could bequeath the world several new Muslim nations, a nuclear Middle East and a stronger China. In theory, America could do a belated follow-up to the Alaska deal and put in a bid for Siberia. But Russia’s calculation is that sooner or later we’ll be back in a bipolar world and that, in almost any scenario, there’s more advantage in being part of the non-American pole. A Sino–Russian strategic partnership has a certain logic to it, and so, in a darker way, does a Russo–Muslim alliance of convenience. In 1989, with the Warsaw Pact crumbling before his eyes, poor old Mikhail Gorbachev received a helpful bit of advice from the cocky young upstart on the block, the Ayatollah Khomeini: ‘I strongly urge that in breaking down the walls of Marxist fantasies you do not fall into the prison of the West and the Great Satan,’ wrote the pioneer Islamist nutcase. ‘I openly announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran, as the greatest and most powerful base of the Islamic world, can easily help fill up the ideological vacuum of your system.’
In an odd way, that’s what happened everywhere but the Kremlin. As communism retreated, radical Islam seeped into Afghanistan and Indonesia and the Balkans. Crazy guys holed up in Philippine jungles and the tri-border region of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay which would have been ‘Marxist fantasists’ a generation or two back are now Islamists: it’s the ideology du jour. Even the otherwise perplexing enthusiasm of the western Left for the jihad’s misogynist homophobe theocrats is best understood as a latterday variation on the Hitler/Stalin pact. And, despite Gorbachev turning down the offer, it will be Russia’s fate to have large chunks of its turf annexed by the Islamic world.
We are witnessing a remarkable event: the death of a great nation not through war or devastation but through its inability to rouse itself from its own suicidal tendencies. The ‘ideological vacuum’ was mostly filled with a nihilist fatalism. Churchill got it wrong: Russia is a vacuum wrapped in a nullity inside an abyss.
We discuss Steyn's article, remember? The fact that in many places on Earth one can find as poor or even poorer towns as the Russian, is irrelevant to the dispute.
And, if you need this comparison so badly, someone's else poverty in no way does change the fact that the majority of Russians are poor, nor justifies the robbery rampant in that country.
A actually didn't. What I did, I emigrated from Russia, in 1977. And visited the country once or twice a year long years since.
But not only that: my field of expertise is Russian history and culture, in the framework of history of (political) ideas in general. You can't imply any lack of informed understanding in my case...
What is abundantly clear however, is that you and I are on the opposite opinion poles as far as Russia is concerned. Well, it's OK with me. You are entitled to yours as I'm to mine.
It's not the number of readings, but the quality of a single reading what matters.
I'm afraid, any lessons from Tolstoy's epic or Krylov's (not Kerilov)parables are missed on you.
The fact that the percentage of the population there below poverty has been dropping and is around 20%, I'm sure is irrelavent. It is true that a large percentage is poor, the difference is, you prefer to believe that that is static or worsening, statistics and facts on the ground prove way otherwise.
---So I discovered quite by accident.---
The level of hostility surprised me a little too, but many of these peoples have grievances that go way back and especially nasty memories from the last century. The situation with the Japanese and Koreans is similar.
"All Russians have Polish roots. You are a black sheep of a Polish family :(
But some day you will see the light and then I will become a Tsar of Rusistan, which will be a part of a Polish federation."
To a doctor right now... into napleon's room... or maybe Chingiz khan or Tamerlan's room... whatever... :(
P.S.:)
4 times its not a big deal for war & peace. ( every time you understading become different).
"Krylov's (not Kerilov)" i wrote "Kerylov's Tale" you could guess that it was a missprint. Here is two variants the first one you didn't read "the Elefant & Moska" the second one you didn't understad the essence of the story so you can't fit on R-P relations
The article linked below describes a new Russian government study of Russian life expectancy:
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20051011/41665101.html
58.9 years for men. So, Steyn should have said high 50s instead of mid 50s.
I see you continue to insist that "The Elephant and the lap dog" represents a model of Russo-Polish relations... let me inform you then that this is not only plain stupid of you but is also really offensive for the great Polish nation.
It shows you for what you really are: a silly woman, and impaired by the Stockholm syndrome at that, judging by your apology of the Rissification policies against your own people.
you nevertheless should try to improve your English. Then it'll be easier for everyone to distinguish your language errors from the failures of your logic and reason.===
I learn on FR and other forum that when opponent became to try to lecture you on your english style it means that the opponent just lost his aurgument. The attack on "bad english" is the last resort in discussion:).
see you continue to insist that "The Elephant and the lap dog" represents a model of Russo-Polish relations... let me inform you then that this is not only plain stupid of you but is also really offensive for the great Polish nation.===
Accually it is good representation of situation as of the most of Krilov' tales stories.
The "offense" on polish nation do poles themselves when they behaive like "Moska" from Krilov' tale.
It shows you for what you really are: a silly woman, and impaired by the Stockholm syndrome at that, judging by your apology of the Rissification policies against your own people.==
You have very bad taste if tell such thing to woman. The life in New Zealand spolied your manners?
No, I just don't care about manners when I see a good example of Great Russian chauvinism or the Soviet Agitprop.
The "offense" on polish nation do poles themselves when they behaive like "Moska" from Krilov' tale.
This is another example of what I was speaking about... and, since you're not a gentleman in your attitude to a whole nation (Poles) it allows me not to be a gentleman with you too. So just get lost.
Well actually my aim was reached, you understood me like everybody here did. There was nothing humiliating in my posts towards your nation. As far as I understood it were YOU who compared Polish policy (in your words whole greate polish nation) with a lap dog. I didn't say a word that is who.
"It shows you for what you really are: a silly woman"
I didn't say any offensive word to you or to your compatriots. It really shows glorificated European Polish good breeding which I guess you belong to.
"Rissification policies"..
...um guess you meant "rUssification"
.."you nevertheless should try to improve your English" ..
LOL
Anyway, Now the point is not in Russification policy. When parents start to speak with their child in majority language of the country but not in the native one. The other reason is urbanization a normal process that is going on in every country of the world.
I wonder how many nations & ethnic groups live in Poland or in New Zeeland whoever you are. Now compare the result with nation quantity in RF & how many languages exist on the territory of Poland & NZ summary (take Tasmania, Australia & Oceania also if you want)& compare with number of alive languages in RF (I’m not talking about independent countries which were taking part in Russian empire or in the USSR) I can guess beforehand that you'll start bringing demagogy about impossibility of the comparability
Of the territories then have a look and take not the whole Russia but region for example Caucasian, at least not the whole region but only one subject
Of the federation - DAGESTAN I already said 2 mil. People 50 languages 30 nations (each nation have it own language traditions & culture & had not any armed conflicts between different ethnic for ages) now find kind of example in your countries. If you cannot do it then shut up please. Take your seat.
I guess this is no problem at all, unless the analyst is feeding on stereotypical "doom-and-gloom" information. This is exactly what USSR propaganda was doing, this is exactly what Steyn is elaborating on.
IMHO, Steyn is a very talented columnist with witty tongue. I am his regular reader. However, being Russian and living in Russia, I find his observations far-fetched and one-sided. Not to say derrogatory and inflaming.
That is exactly why we (Russians) are building the gas pipeline to bypass Poland. /sarcasm off
Your government seems to be very unhappy about it.
Grzegorz, we already had one nametwin of yours - his name was Grigoriy Otrepiev. :)
This is another example of what I was speaking about... and, since you're not a gentleman in your attitude to a whole nation (Poles) it allows me not to be a gentleman with you too. So just get lost.==
So now the personal attack on me?:))) So primitive behaivior:).
It is not the trait of intellegent thinker so I won't answer you at same way. We here on FR like to discuss things if ever we disagree we don't beneath to personal offences.
BTW AFIK poles here are not sissies and perfectly may defend themselves with out your intervention. If you sre not pole then maybe you ask them first did they need your patronage?
The life in New Zealand spolied your manners?<
No, I just don't care about manners when I see a good example of Great Russian chauvinism or the Soviet Agitprop.==
It is all bla bla for polemics. We need the examples here.
If someone stands for his country it is not shavinism but patriotism.
Ask poles here meybe they will educate you:). They speak of Poland ALWAYS very very high. Even when we talked about 1938 year and partition of Checkhoslovakia.
SO all the indications of shavinism are seen but maybe it is just polish patriotism?
BTW "Great Russian shauvinism" was condemned by Vlad Lenin. You agree with him?
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