Posted on 10/18/2005 9:35:50 AM PDT by SirLinksalot
Folks, rememeber Tradesports.com ?
That site was widely monitored in the presidential elections to gauge the futures market's view of who would be the next president.
Well, at Tradesports, contracts are being traded which allows you to bet whether Rove or Libby will be indicted by Dec 31, 2005.
As of this post time, Libby is at a 66% probablility of indictment; Rove is at 60%. Although I cannot find the contract specifications, I assume a plea bargain counts as an indictment.
However, we don't have to wait till end of this year for this to occur. A decision should be made by end of this month.
TIME MAGAZINE REPORTS THUSLY :
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"Special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald appears to be seriously weighing a perjury charge for Rove's failure to tell grand jurors that he talked to TIME correspondent Matthew Cooper about Plame, according to a person close to Rove. Rove corrected himself in a later grand jury session. If charged with perjury, he will maintain he simply didn't recall the conversation with Cooper and told Fitzgerald as soon as he did."
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It seems that the markets are betting that Fitzerald is after big game.
Heh heh heh. But it's not Rove or Libby...
Did tradesports.com pick rightly for the 2004 election?
If not, I rest my case.
They had it pegged untill the exits came out mid morning than you could have bought Bush contracts at 20 cents on the dollar. Wish I had.
a lot of freepers did
When it comes to legal cases, the predictive advantage of wagering breaks down.
I did and made over $3000 on the election. I've noticed when it comes to politics on Tradesports, the prices usually move with what the MSM has to say on the specific event. There are definitely opportunities to make "educated" bets on political events.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1504651/posts
American Bettors Believe Rove will Remain In The White House
I don't think a President or Vice President can be indicted.
Meaningless. Sportsbook.com has the exact opposite on Rove with 70% now betting he will not be indicted.
I wonder what Miller, Johnson or even Novak are at? % wise
There's zero chance anybody outside the admin will be indicted by Fitz as appealing as the prospect is. This guy's been going in a straight line for quite some time now. Our best hope is no indictments but that's fairly optimistic. While I enjoy the pick me up theories on all of these threads I'm not buying. This stinks from top to bottom and unless Fitz decides it's totally hopeless my guess is he's going to indict. Furthermore I think he'll indict on a shoe string.
Well, come on, out with it. Who?
I believe there is a great chance someone outside is going to fall for this, actually. Hopefully, justice will be served in any case.
Totally different things. An indictment would come first -- thats the grand jury's statement that would allow the prosecutor to go with a case. It would be a long time after that that they would talk about even whether the case had any merits, whether it could be dismissed on any number of technical issues. It would be a long time after that that anybody would be talking about a plea bargain -- and that typically happens only when the defendant thinks he's going down, or when he's so overwhelmed by the prosecutor ($$ for lawyers) that he basically gives up. I don't see Rove in either situation now or in the future.
Actually, because of the "SPY" which was found in the VP's office, I'm glad Fitz is focusing there.
"Could Fitz be prosecuted if he participated in the Iowa futures?"
To stay clean, he probably traded under a false name...using something like "Victoria Flame" or "Lucy Ramirez".
Hmm. I don't have the time for it, but someone could make some certain money by laying off his bets. Bet for Rove on one site and against him on the other. With the odds being that far different, you could make some real money whichever way it went.
I've seen this phrasing from so many times. It implies that Cooper revealed the conversation and Rove belatedly admitted to it instead of the real way it happened...Rove told about it, waived all confidentiality and Cooper still balked at testifying as he had before with Libby.
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