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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Heard on the radio shortly before the presser that a lot of the local hotels around Tampa Bay have already filled up with evacuees from SW FL.
I find it absolutely stunning that there is some possibility that Florida could escape this storm entirely. I'm not sure I buy that.
It looks more to me like she'll clobber the Mayan Sun Coast and lose some strength over the Yucatan, but re-emerge with with a Florida destination. I guess we'll know before long.
No sarcasm here...
bttt
Humph!
Anyone hear from the kook who is convinced our hurricanes this year were sent from the Japanese via Russian technology? He was a weatherman at a tv station- resigned in the midst of Katrina/Rita to pursue his ahem, ahem, errr..uhmmm..theories.
Yep, concentric eyewalls forming.
just saw on CNN:
Cayman Islands weather cams
http://caymanchillin.com/caymanchillin-live.htm
Granted, that map includes some models that never do a good job with anything, and some of the outliers are rather important. The overall track idea remains fairly consistent, likely why there is little track change at 5pm. Tonight's runs should clear the matter up a bit.
The scientific term for that model divergence is "covey of quail".
What surprises me is that it's a triple eyewall at 5, 10 and 45 miles.
Cozumel cams:
http://www.cozumel-hotels.net/webcam/
Well, if the trough doesn't pick it up, she could just sit and spin down there for a while. We need more confirmation of a trend before jumping to conclusions.
TS to Cat 5 in 24. Looks like Bastardi was right.
Thank you! My confusion at present lies in what the trough is doing..isn't that what we need to be watching to learn when it will make it's northeast turn? It seems the earliest we might know is tomorrow morning??
If this track works its way northward it's going to be hard for folks in our area because roads are already going to be filled with people that have been evac'ed from further south, plus hotels will be full.
I knew you usually pre-booked a hotel, and I figured you were an "A" since you're on the water. Well, time to just watch and see.
Makes you almost "wary" to go to bed though, LOL. Last night I watched Paul Delagado on Fox at 10, storm was a Cat 1, went to bed, woke up, storm was a Cat 5. Makes one wonder what's going to happen overnight tonight, LOL.
With that, I'll be gone for the next few hours. First, I have to find some dinner, then I'm filling in at cribbage (where I hope to be as good as I was in the NFL this past weekend :-)
I should be back in time for the 11 pm updates.
http://tbo.com/hurricane2005/worstcase/worstcase.html
Projected for 20 ft surge.
We will pray
Yeah. That was a nasty one too.
2 dead-end feints into the Gulf, 6 implausible retrograde moves, and about 28 strikes on south Florida. I'd say south Florida, medium Cat. 3 at landfall. Occam's is unmerciful, sometimes...
Last report I heard before sleep last night was 110mph. Could not believe my eyes this morning 175mph, Cat 5.
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