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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Sounds like I just might have to suspend reality for a couple hours then.
bttt
Add me to the 'wanting to know about a NE US Superstorm' list too...what is that about?
Some of the tracks had been suggesting that Wilma will merge with a storm coming off the Great Lakes this weekend, sort of like The Perfect Storm back in 1993 (I may be off by a year on the date). Indeed, today's 11 am discussion makes a mention of this. I will note that the models that suggested this are now suggesting that Wilma becomes the daughter of Mitch and make a lengthy detour through the Yucatan.
I'd recommend it. You'll be freaking over Wilma after you do LOL.
bttt
As if I'm not freaking over Wilma now. I was up all last night as she bombed up, finally collapsing just after the 5 am suite of products.
I went out to lunch after monitoring Wilma all morning, came back and did a Scooby Doo! What IS this?
Mitch was a Cat 5 in almost the exact same area.
Is this the "cold front" pushing Wilma eastward? And, when they meet... then what?
Another anomaly in a year of anomalies? Wish I could give a better answer.
Oh my! You need a nap.
You have got to watch that movie!!
*smacks head* D'oh! :)
You're right, of course. I don't know why I didn't think of that. Thank you for your reply.
I think I will take a break. There's a tree in the neighbor's yard that's fire-engine red, and what Wilma might run into Monday will leave things cold and wet up here this weekend.
In this loop it looks like to me the eye is about to widen.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
She's a braver woman than I. :)
Joe Bastardi on Hannity says the jet stream is going to grab the storm and move it. SW Fla coast to take the worst of it. Orlando will get weather similar to Jeanne and Francis. The swath of stronger winds will be wider than Charley. About 150 miles to the north of it. Furthermore, he feels the storm will come in Sunday or Sunday night. He thinks it will still be in the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday morning. He is to be on Hannity later tonight I think. Ft. Myers and south is probably going to get the worst of it, he said.
My guess was for it to wander NNW for about 12 hours, then turn NE.
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