| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 10/19/2005 9:04:23 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
New thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1505673/posts |
Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Looks like it will head quickly to the parched New England area where it will probably camp out and bring a couple weeks of much needed rain.
Ping to a new Google Earth tool.
Well, remember that any plane flying at 250 mph, for example, is handling 250 mph "winds". A jet fighter traveling at Mach 2 is handling 1,300 mph "winds"! The airframe is designed to handle airflow at speeds much higher than a hurricane produces - the difficulty, as a previous poster pointed out, is maintaining a steady course through such heavy crosswinds and dealing with the turbulence.
Steepness of bottom contour is also a major ingredient in surge height, with gradual shallowing, as exists along most of the Gulf coast, being an indicator of higher surges. IMO, a faster moving storm should create a larger surge, since the forward speed of the strong side will be added to the speed at which the winds are rotating around the center. Just my guess, though.
Make sure it gets enough charge to properly mix the distilled water in the electrolyte. Up north, I have to use an auxiliary charger to do that this time of the year -- it has to "boil" a little. Agree on the importance of the chocolate.
As of today, which is subject to change, Ch. 13 in Orlando has it coming in as a CAT 3 after shearing takes place. Wind field is to expand some in time. The center is to move onshore between Collier and Charlotte counties and move quickly through Florida. The center of circulation then goes right through Lake Okeehobee. The graphic shows it at 135 mph at 8am. At 8am Sunday it is shown as a CAT 2 at 105 mph as it moves off of the east coast of Fla.
Keys Evacuates Tourists As Wilma Looms
Mitch Stacy - AP
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051019/ap_on_re_us/wilma_florida_23;_ylt=AlsXoUt_Knj97A1v71m.MYSCbpwv;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
PUNTA GORDA, Fla. - Visitors were ordered out of the Florida Keys on Wednesday as Hurricane Wilma exploded into the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, with meteorologists warning that it could maintain devastating power as it crosses Florida from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic.
The storm, which was menacing Cuba and Central America with sustained wind of 175 mph, could be a weakened but still significant threat to the state by this weekend, forecasters said.
Wilma was expected to come ashore in southwestern Florida, threatening coastal areas like Punta Gorda that were battered by Charley, the Category 4 storm that was the first of seven hurricanes to strike or pass close to the state since August 2004.
Monroe County officials ordered visitors out of the Florida Keys starting at noon Wednesday. Tourists are generally told to leave ahead of others on the lengthy chain of islands connected by one highway.
On the state's southwest coast, Collier County officials hadn't ordered anyone to leave the Naples area, but "we are telling those folks who are more comfortable evacuating to go ahead. If they wait there could be road congestion and other problems," said Jaime Sarbagh, a county emergency management spokeswoman.
Early Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with wind of 70 mph. With wind more than 100 mph faster by the same time Wednesday, it had shown in the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
It is forecast to be a potentially devastating Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, although experts acknowledge they have little skill in making strength forecasts. A Category 3 storm has wind of at least 111 mph, a Category 4 has wind of 131 to 155 mph, and a Category 5 is anything above that.
At 11 a.m. Wednesday, Wilma was still in the western Caribbean, more than 500 miles south of Key West and heading toward the west-northwest at 7 mph. However, the storm should eventually make a sharp right turn toward Florida and pick up forward speed in the Gulf of Mexico because it will get caught in the westerlies, the strong wind current that generally blows toward the east, forecasters said.
Wilma was expected to move across Florida rapidly, which means it wouldn't weaken much over land, Cobb said. That means it's possible Atlantic coast cities such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could be hit by wind nearly as strong as on the west coast, he said.
Paul Malbon anxiously watched Wilma's progress from the five-story Best Western waterfront hotel he owns and runs in Fort Myers Beach, on the west coast south of Punta Gorda. Hurricane Charley's storm surge shoved sand and water into the ground floor last year but everything was quickly repaired.
"I don't wish bad luck on anybody else but I hope it doesn't come here," he said Wednesday.
Asked if he feared the area might get slammed again, he replied: "Only the man upstairs knows the answer to that one. It don't look good at the moment."
Charley was the first of six hurricanes to strike the state since August 2004, causing more than $20 billion and killing nearly 150 people.
The state routinely replenishes emergency supplies of water, food and ice at staging points so no additional action is needed, emergency management spokesman Mike Stone said earlier. Supermarkets and home-repair chains stocked extra food, ice and other supplies.
Many Punta Gorda homes and businesses have been rebuilt in a construction boom, but some are still boarded up. More than 6,800 federal trailers and mobile homes remain scattered around the state as temporary housing installed after the six storms, with 934 in Charlotte County alone.
Wilma made history before hitting land. It is the 12th hurricane of the season, the same number reached in 1969, the highest since record-keeping began in 1851. It is also the 21st named storm, tying the record set in 1933.
The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the 21-name list for storms this year. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used for the first time, starting with Alpha.
___
On the Net:
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Good luck in getting through this. My mom has a condo on the beach in Naples. She's not there, but do you know of a place where she can have her car taken to get it away from any storm surge? I'm sure your busy with LOTS of other things so don't worry about answering this if nothing quickly comes to mind.
Again - Good Luck!
bttt
I'm currently chatting on skype with my highschool girlfriend who lives in Cancun. They aren't evacuating. :/ She says they made it through Gilbert; so they'll make it through this one. Their tour boat sank in Stan that was their main source of income. She has a business making stuff to sell to the tourist shops, but every time a hurricane comes through, her business goes to pot for 6 months waiting for tourism to come back and the shops to rebuild.
For the life of me, I cannot comprehend not evacuating with such a moster bearing down on me. I'm worried sick about her and her family. :/
Me too. Dollar store is the best deal on batteries.
Something must be going on at the NHC; Franklin usualy is early with the advisories, and 2 pm is coming up quick.
2 of the models runs just in (GFS and GFDL) show it stalling near the yacatan channel for 5 days and not hitting FL until later..also this would prevent the superstorm in the NE US....this stall is becuase the trough in the midwest doesn't catch it and turn it north in these runs
2 of the models runs just in (GFS and GFDL) show it stalling near the yacatan channel for 5 days and not hitting FL until later..also this would prevent the superstorm in the NE US....this stall is becuase the trough in the midwest doesn't catch it and turn it north in these runs
Check out the motion of Wilma's eye. It is wobbling like a spinning top.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
(Note: this is photo sequence that takes a while to load)
I hear ya! Can't stand the delay! Coffee time!!!
...Wilma weakens slightly... at 2 PM EDT...1800z...the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands has been discontinued. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Tulum on the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and nearby islands. A hurricane is also in effect for Swan Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from south of Tulum to Chetumal Mexico. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Belize from the border with Mexico southward to Belize City. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron. All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 17.5 north... longitude 83.5 west or about 300 miles... 480 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico. Wilma is wobbling around an average motion toward the west-northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb...26.58 inches. An Air Force aircraft will be in the center of Wilma shortly to provide a direct measure of the central pressure. Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 83.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...165 mph. Minimum central pressure... 900 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT. Forecaster Franklin
pressure is 900mb now and 165MPH wind...but it is all estimated..recon plane should be in shortly
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.