Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[SheLion]

Looks like it will head quickly to the parched New England area where it will probably camp out and bring a couple weeks of much needed rain.

OMG, where have you been?  We can't TAKE anymore rain.  Sunday alone, we got three inches in one day!  The rain started week-end before last and hasn't quit.  The skies look to unleash more rain even today.  The ground is so wet and we have been under flood watches. 

If that hurricane comes up here, it will mean big trouble.  And the damn in Taunton, Mass will go for sure.  It's been a real mess up here in New England.

[steveegg]

I can't make heads or tails of the dropsonde obsrevation reports, but there's a fresh one out there (sent out at 2:01).

[jeeperz]

I am sorry I don't know of any place. I would think that the building concierge or maintenance might have an idea of any place inland. I'll ask around thought. Glad your mom is not here. There is concern being expressed about surge from this storm.

Thank you for your good thoughts - I am heading out of here tomorrow. Thankfully I had already made travel plans.

[PigRigger]

Agreed, last thing we need is more rain in the NE

Here on Long Island we received 14" of rain last week (Tues-Friday), parts further east recorded almost 18"....

Seen places flood that I never thought possible....Stay away Wilma......

[dawn53]

Call the police department and explain the situation. They will be able to tell you where you can legally park a car during the storm, i.e. shopping mall parking lot, etc.

Then maybe one of her neighbors or the condo manager can get it moved to that location.

If it's not a sanctioned area for relocating cars, they'll tow it away to an impound lot.

[steveegg]

The 900 mb call in the advisory was a bit premature - the recon flight found an extrapolated 894 mb -

427 
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
  083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75  kt
E.  29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP  894 mb
I.  12 C/ 3058 m
J.  20 C/ 3028 m
K.  15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA        OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[exhaustedmomma]

2 of the models runs just in (GFS and GFDL) show it stalling near the yacatan channel for 5 days and not hitting FL until later..also this would prevent the superstorm in the NE US....this stall is becuase the trough in the midwest doesn't catch it and turn it north in these runs

Please, explain this more for me! Thanks!

[The Right Stuff]

My colleague actually flew with one crew. She said they strapped her in like a fighter pilot!

[steveegg]

Someone please smack that broad on TWC; a change from an estimated to an extrapolated pressure, especially in something less than 15 minutes, is not, repeat, NOT necessarily an indication of re-strengthening.

Weather Underground just went belly-up on me.

[Genoa]

Now the latest GFDL model, updated UTC 17:25 10/19, has Wilma hitting Yucatan then doing an about-face and heading toward Cuba, possibly missing FL altogether. GFDL at GMT 11:26 had her going across Lake Okeechobee. What is this??

[Strategerist]

The latest GFS shows no such thing.

However, the GFDL, and the BAMD (both GFS-derived models) do show Wilma spending an extended amount of time over the Yucatan and sort of slowly drifting east, to south of Cuba; both models only run out 5 days and at 5 days the storm is still south of W Cuba heading nowhere in particular.

[Ingtar]

I wonder if she was spinning too tight and fast to be picked up by the trough.

[Strategerist]

It could be a hiccup; none of the 12Z models depict this except the GFDL; the 18Z BAMD (based on the 12Z GFS) depicts it as well, but both the BAMD and GFDL are based on the GFS, but the 12Z GFS does not depict this scenario.

[Strategerist]

That wouldn't prevent any storm from being picked up by a trough.

[tutstar]

What website are you viewing these on?

[rwfromkansas]

Hopefully we don't have that New England superstorm. That would be devastating.

[CFC__VRWC]

Clearly the 12Z GFS fed these other models some data they don't like - the outputs suggest trash runs (I don't have any experience with meterological models, but I do have a fair amount of experience with surface hydro models and can recognize a junk run when I see it).

I wonder if the trough is swooping in faster than expected, and the models aren't sure how to handle it and are "thinking" it may block Wilma's entrance into the GOM?

[steveegg]

Meanwhile, the UKMET has come off the Yucatan Peninsula and onto the track previously predicted by the GFDL and essentially in line with the current official track (the previous UKMET run ran Wilma for a Yucatan vacation then into the northwest corner of the Everglades), the oft-confused NHC90 is off the map, and the left-leaning LBAR shifts to the north of Tampa/St. Pete (NN won't like that one one bit).

[exhaustedmomma]

"thinking" it may block Wilma's entrance into the GOM?

I, for one, am "praying" it doesn't... may not be scientific but... hoping!!!!!!!!!!!

[steveegg]

CORRECTED Vortex Data Message (pressure now measured via dropsonde and at 892 mb - previous version of this message had an extrapolated 894 mb, otherwise no change) -

448 
URNT12 KNHC 191822 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
  083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75  kt
E. 029 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H.         892 mb
I.  12 C/ 3058 m
J.  20 C/ 3028 m
K.  15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA        OB 11 CCB
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z