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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Big difference...this is Oct. 19th. Weather patterns i.e. cool front, westerly winds and north winds...we're out of the tropical weather season, therefore, hurricanes have lots of problems this time of the year. She's in the Caribbean...wait till she enters the Gulf of Mexico. She'll have major westerly wind shears.
Back at you. Please check in and let us know what you decide to do for the storm.
It's easier said than done.
I live in Pinellas, I'm not in an evac zone, but pretty near the water. Still we're high enough to probably withstand any storm surge that wasn't over 25 feet.
We could board up and leave, but we 'd have to do it today, because at noon today evacs start in south Florida (my husband can't leave because he's part of the EOC so it would just be me, my son and our dogs.) The evacs starting at noon today means all the south Floridians will head north. Since the storm is going to cross the state, there's no other way to head, inland won't do you much good.
We (the state of Florida) do staggered evacs. By the time they start evacuating our area (if there should be a need) the roads will be clogged.
Jeb and our local EOC's say if you're not in an evac zone, you should have supplies on hand and plan to hunker down.
They don't want people that aren't in evac zones, or unsafe structures, to even go to evac centers because we don't have enough evac centers for all residents.
So we have a safe room, we have lots of food, we have water, we have a generator, our roof is strapped down according to Miami-Dade code, our windows will be boarded, and we'll be staying.
It's really what they advise you to do unless you are under evac orders.
Charley's eye was 5 statute miles in diameter when it crossed Punta Gorda.
bump for later
Thanks, mhk
Information for Collier County Shelters is 239-774-8444.
The Ritz-Carlton Naples Golf takes pets if you can believe it. They can be reached at 239-593-2000 (currently have a wait list) for Wilma.
If they wait they will be stuck on I 75 probably without gasoline and in major traffic.
I shudder to think what Franklin's going to say in the 11 am updates.
The large disturbance that became Agnes was first detected over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on June 14. The system drifted eastward and became a tropical depression later that day and a tropical storm over the northwestern Caribbean on the 16th.
Agnes turned northward on June 17 and became a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico the next day.
A continued northward motion brought Agnes to the Florida Panhandle coast on June 19 as a Category 1 hurricane.
Agnes turned northeastward after landfall and weakened to a depression over Georgia. However, it regained tropical storm strength over eastern North Carolina on June 21 and moved into the Atlantic later that day. A northwestward turn followed, and a just-under-hurricane-strength Agnes made a final landfall on the 22nd near New York, New York. The storm merged with a non-tropical low on June 23rd, with the combined system affecting the northeastern United States until the 25th.
Agnes was barely a hurricane at landfall in Florida, and the effects of winds and storm surges were relatively minor. The major impact was over the northeastern United States, where Agnes combined with the non-tropical low to produce widespread rains of 6 to 12 inches with local amounts of 14 to 19 inches. These rains produced widespread severe flooding from Virginia northward to New York, with other flooding occurring over the western portions of the Carolinas.
Agnes caused 122 deaths in the United States. Nine of these were in Florida (mainly from severe thunderstorms) while the remainder were associated with the flooding. The storm was responsible for $2.1 billion in damage in the United States, the vast majority of which came from the flooding. Agnes also affected western Cuba, where seven additional deaths occurred.
Thank you for your good wishes and more importantly for all you do for these threads.
I have spoken to several friends who have booked flights out on Friday. I am out tomorrow and rest of my family is also out on Friday. This is looking like trouble for us.
Keep up the great work and again thank you.
.
We only evacuate from a Cat 5 in my area, and that isn't because we will be flooded from storm surge, but because we will be on a little island if we stay!
If Wilma pulls a Charlie, there won't be enough time to evacuate out of the area. We could probably make it to a shelter....
We almost evacuated to Orlando when Charlie was heading for us. Thankfully, we stayed. My old neighborhood in Orlando took a big hit.
Mornin Steve.
This thing sploded overnight. I guess Grammie was just getting extra prepared for it when she threw all of Jim Rob's lawn furniture in the pool after the FReepathon Funkle Banquet, eh?
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before. With an unbelievable round of intensification that saw the pressure drop 87 mb in just 12 hours, Wilma smashed the all-time record for lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane this morning. The 4 am hurricane hunter report put the pressure at 882 mb, easily besting the previous record of 888 mb set in Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. And since no hurricane hunter airplane has been in the eye since then, Wilma may be even stronger now. The eye diameter of Wilma during this round of intense shrunk as low as 2 nautical miles, which may be the smallest eye diameter ever measured in a tropical cyclone. The only eye that small I could find in the records was a 3 nm the Category 4 Typhoon Jeliwat of 2000. It's amazing the hurricane hunters were even able to penetrate the eye--it's really tough to hit a 2 mile wide eye when you're flying crabbed over at a 30 degree yaw angle fighting horizontal flight level winds of 185 mph and severe turbulence. This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen in the Atlantic. The Hurricane Season of 2005 keeps topping itself with new firsts, and now boasts three of the five most intense hurricanes of all time--Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
Where will Wilma go? snip
The closest analogue storm I can find in the archives to Wilma is an October 1906 hurricane that looks remarkably similar.
Oh, let's hope not! Two passes are two too many!
If any FReepers have to evacuate as far north as Mobile, I can gladly take-in 2-4 people with dogs.
I praying the thing fissles out, and squeeks between Cuba and the keys... or into the Mexican desert. Another Ivan redux we don't need!
Oh yeah, of course, the hurricane magnet inviting Freepers into his lair. hehe.
Gasoline is always a problem in and near the impact area. Fill your tanks and cans now.
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