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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Unbelievable. Here we go again. Luckily, she went Cat 5 early and won't be able to keep that amount of energy for long.
With storms of this magnitude, don't they begin to overpower existing weather conditions, troughs, etc? Katrina was expected to go in around Panama City initially, IIRC, and kept moving west in spite of all predictions. Just curious about your opinion on the likelihood of something similar happening with Wilma.
I saw the title revision of 175 mph and thought it was a joke.
I knew she would strengthen overnight but this is unbelievable!!
It was surely a surprise to my parents in Polk county. There house was nearly flattened. We were in Seminole county. The eye went directly over us. Bad news.
What kind of beads are you making? Can I buy some? :)
That's exactly what I said up the thread. Just finished payroll. Will get to the bank and post office first thing this morning.
It could depend on how warm the waters art in that area, and in the direction it is expected to track. It could stay at this pace if the water could support it.
I was fumbling for my first cup of coffee this morning and heard that intensification on the radio - thought it was a time warp or a joke. Hopefully it will fizzle a whole heck of a lot before landfall in Florida.
Bump to mark my place.
Thanks for the ping! Looks like it's not headed towards Texas.
I cant believe it's already a cat 5.
Does anyone know much about the forecasting models? The LBAR puts this thing over Pinellas County, although most of the others seem to agree somewhere west of Lake Okeechobee.
A cat 3+ over Pinellas would be the FUBAR model
Storms can "make their own weather" but that's more likely when the steering currents are weak. I don't think that's the case here, given the radical right turn and acceleration that the models are predicting. I try to avoid forecasts. I like extrapolations, much safer.
Coupla things...
One, if my math is correct, this beast has gone from tropical styorm to Cat-5 record holder in less than 24 hours, yes?
Two, looking at the projected path, it appears that Wilma included, every front inch of the Gulf Coast has gotten hit or will get hit this year with the exception of from Houston SW to the US/Mexico border. I guess we know where Alpha can be expected to make landfall?
I had to rub my eyes twice to make sure that I had read the thread title correctly. Please let this monster burn itself out in the next day or two!
I was flabbergasted when the weatherman said he had never known a hurricane to drop 69 millibars in just 7-1/2 hours.
..and it was 150 miles per hour then.
When I woke up this AM, it had dropped to 800 and something millibars and was 175 miles per hour.
OH MY GOODNESS!
Yet another reason why I don't live on the ocean. It's a nice place to visit, but I sure don't want to have to rebuild my house every few years. The tornadoes here in Kentucky are bad enough.
By the time I woke up this AM, it had dropped to 800 plus in 9 hours!...and had gone from 150 mph to 175!
Mercy!
LBAR -- Limited BARotropic. Limited alright, limited in its ability to forecast tropical cyclones. Generally ignore it.
I remain stunned too. I had checked the Cayman's site only minutes before I saw a post saying that Wilma had jumped to a Cat5 and an 884 reading and Guennie, I almost fainted. This makes her the strongest on record for an Atlantic storm.
We are carefully watching her. We're in denial that she could possibly take a northward turn.
My daughter was nonchalant last night. Not so this morning, but she's fairly certain it's too far south of Grand Cayman and heading west to do any substantial damage to her.
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