Does anyone know much about the forecasting models? The LBAR puts this thing over Pinellas County, although most of the others seem to agree somewhere west of Lake Okeechobee.
A cat 3+ over Pinellas would be the FUBAR model
LBAR -- Limited BARotropic. Limited alright, limited in its ability to forecast tropical cyclones. Generally ignore it.
LBAR is an ancient model which is at its worst for storms making turns into the Westerlies; it's an Apple II among Pentium computers.
Generally ignore everything besides the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET, GUNA, BAMD, and CONU. Of most on-line spaghetti maps CONU, if it's recently updated, is probably the most valid.