Tropical Storm Wilma Live Thread

NOAA - NHC ^ | 17 October 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2005 hurricane season continues to alter the record books. Tropical Storm Wilma has formed in the Caribbean Sea.

NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions

Storm Floater IR Loop

[TXBSAFH]

I got mine from Rita in the garage.

[alnick]

None of the models have the storm taking that northerly turn.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html

[NautiNurse]

The 5AM NHC discussion provides analysis of the models. See post #22.

[SE Mom]

I hereby demand Accuweather's model be totally wrong.

[Alia]

Thanks for the head's up!

[mathluv]

I am ready for this season to be over.

[Flyer]

Track has shifted westward.

WAY westward!

Go Astros!

[Hatteras]

That's not the Wilma I had in mind...

...

[4everontheRight]

My sister has decided to move from the MS Gulf Coast up here to SC...looks like she is just in time for Wilma to follow her!

[CajunConservative]

http://www.kplctv.com/Global/link.asp?L=159592

Here's the local meteorologist's weather blog on Wilma. He did a great job with Rita.

[Nita Nupress]

Nooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I just got everything unpacked yesterday from Rita!

[Nita Nupress]

...saw on accuweather earlier that they think a high pressure ridge might keep it away from the northern gulf...and send it either west to Mexico or more easterly toward Tampa or points south.

Oh, I like that. Mexico sounds really good.

[metmom]

Gee, these hurricane threads are the only thing worth reading this morning. Maybe if it hits NO someone will finally think about the wisdom of rebuilding. I don't think it'll make it much above a 3. The water is still pretty warm but not quite the high octane hurricane fuel. It just depends on the other factors coming together properly. I'm beginning to like my snow more and more.

[Dallas59]

[aberaussie]

AACK! That picture turns my stomach!

Ping to chanticleer!

[2Jedismom]

Thanks, NN.

[steveegg]

The (slightly-late because I was celebrating 13-0 straight-up and 11-2 against the line last night) 8 am intermediate advisory -

Tropical Storm Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 7a
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on October 17, 2005

 
...Wilma moving erratically in the Caribbean...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located
near latitude 16.8 north... longitude 79.6 west or about 205 miles
... 335 km... southeast of Grand Cayman.

 
Wilma is moving southward at about 5 mph ...8 km/hr...but a slow
motion toward the southwest or west is expected during the next 24
hours.  Steering currents remain weak and a continued erratic
motion is possible during the next day or two.

 
Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 40 mph... 65
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  45 miles
... 75 km... mainly southwest of the center.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

 
The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.

 
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...16.8 N... 79.6 W.  Movement
toward...south near 5 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph.  Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

 
$$

We should start getting aircraft recon data about noon; the first flight of two today should already be feet-wet.

[bwteim]

Here's 117 hours (about 5 days) out forecast from Tropical Storm Risk.com (TSR). Take your pick of landing location...


http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200524N_7F.html

[sheikdetailfeather]

Local Orlando news says the Canadian model is the only one at this time bringing it close to Florida. The others have taken a significant westerly course FOR THE TIME BEING!

[Diddle E. Squat]

Just in time to cancel the World Series (unless Houston chokes the next 3 games, like the Yankees did last year. The games in the NL city are a week from Tue, Wed, and Thu.)