"Fred, that nice ROCK musician Mr. Robert Plantstone stopped by. He said to tell you that 'Cryin' won't help ya, praying won't do ya no good' -- now what did I do with Betty's sabre tooth?"
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Posted on 10/17/2005 1:39:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The 2005 hurricane season continues to alter the record books. Tropical Storm Wilma has formed in the Caribbean Sea.
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
the last recon fix at 2130z measured a central pressure of 989 mb... and the onboard radar revealed a developing small ragged eye feature. A series of passive microwave overpasses by SSMI and ssmis during the past three hours also indicates at least a mid-level eye-like feature. Deep convection has been pulsating this evening over the estimated center location... but without enough consistency to suggest that the storm is intensifying rapidly. A disjointed and broad band of cold cloud tops remains well removed from the center in the southern semicircle... but there is no data to indicate tropical storm force winds are occurring that far from the center. Dvorak intensity estimates at 00z have come up a bit to 65 kt from TAFB and 55 kt from SAB and AFWA. Given these estimates and the structure depicted in the microwave imagery... the advisory intensity is increased to 55 kt. This remains at the lower end of the range of Dvorak estimates due to the previously discussed lag between the satellite signature and surface winds indicated by the earlier aircraft data. Another aircraft is scheduled to fly into Wilma within the next few hours to help get a better handle on the intensity.
Wilma stopped losing latitude earlier this evening when it pulled up nearly stationary... but the recent microwave imagery suggests it has begun a westward drift... and the estimated initial motion is 270/2. Overall the model guidance envelope has shifted a bit to the right or east of the previous advisory... and the new official forecast is adjusted in that same direction throughout the five day period. The models generally agree that Wilma will recurve after about 72 hours through a weakness in the subtropical ridge associated with a mid-latitude trough progressing across the Continental United States. As is often the case... however... the models greatly disagree on how sharply Wilma will turn and how fast it will move after recurvature. Most of the models are now much faster after recurvature... but the new official forecast will only be adjusted part of the way between the previous advisory and the latest dynamical model consensus. Conditions appear conducive for steady strengthening while Wilma remains in the northwestern Caribbean Sea... and it still appears probable that Wilma will become a major hurricane. Thereafter... increasing shear should halt intensification and begin to induce gradual weakening... but not enough to weaken Wilma beneath hurricane intensity within the five-day time frame.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0300z 15.8n 80.2w 55 kt 12hr VT 18/1200z 15.8n 80.7w 65 kt 24hr VT 19/0000z 16.6n 81.7w 75 kt 36hr VT 19/1200z 17.3n 82.8w 85 kt 48hr VT 20/0000z 18.2n 83.7w 95 kt 72hr VT 21/0000z 20.5n 85.0w 100 kt 96hr VT 22/0000z 22.5n 85.0w 95 kt 120hr VT 23/0000z 25.0n 82.5w 85 kt
Maybe it'll pull and Elena and travel around the gulf in circles for a few days before making landfall. I'll bet the NWS meteorologists are having a great time with the "where Wilma is going to make landfall" pools.
Please add me to the ping list. Thanks.
...Wilma barely moving...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 15.7 north...longitude 80.0 west or about 260 miles... 420 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 215 miles... 345 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Wilma has barely moved for the past several hours but a general motion to the west is expected today followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest. However...steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph...100 km/hr... with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane later today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110 km from the center.
Latest minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft was 984 mb...29.06 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 2 am EDT position...15.7 N... 80.0 W. Movement toward...west near 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 984 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
I see the track has shifted east again. Looks like it's aimed at Naples in NHS's 5-day cone.
The models are in remarkable alignment too.
000
URNT12 KNHC 180614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/05:56:30Z
B. 15 deg 40 min N
079 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 241 deg 065 kt
G. 152 deg 009 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 15 C/ 1530 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0424A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 05:53:30 Z
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR DUE TO ATTENUATION
"Fred, that nice ROCK musician Mr. Robert Plantstone stopped by. He said to tell you that 'Cryin' won't help ya, praying won't do ya no good' -- now what did I do with Betty's sabre tooth?"
and the pressure continues creep down.
Writing papers, etc. The fun never seems to stop... ;)
Pressure is slowly coming down. Should get into strengthening pretty good next 24-48 hours. Hopefully the trough will rip her apart a bit before she comes into FL.
...Wilma almost a hurricane...expected to be one soon...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Therefore...all interests in western Cuba...the Yucatan Peninsula...South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane during the next several days.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 15.7 north...longitude 80.0 west or about 260 miles ...420 km...south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 220 miles... 350 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua /Honduras border.
Wilma has been nearly stationary and little motion is expected during the next several hours. Thereafter...a general motion to the west is expected followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest. Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is expected to become a hurricane today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km from the center.
Latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reconnaissance plane a couple of hours ago was 982 mb...29.00 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...15.7 N... 80.0 W. Movement ...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure...982 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
there are several indicators suggesting that Wilma is strengthening. The pressure has fallen to 982 mb. The cloud pattern consists of very deep convection near the center with banding features...and the outflow has continued to become more symmetrical. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale...suggesting that Wilma is a hurricane. In addition...two microwave passages from different satellites show an eye feature. However...wind observations from the Air Force plane do not support winds higher than 60 knots at this time. Given the conditions of light shear and very warm ocean...strenghtening is indicated. The official intensity forecast is between the GFDL and the SHIPS models. Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern caribean sea...typical of those hurricanes which commonly occurred in October during the 30's 40's and 50's. This is nothing new.
Wilma has barely moved for the past several hours. Despite models showing a weakening of the anticylone over the Gulf of Mexico... this feature is still there and strong...blocking the motion of Wilma. It is still fresh in my memory that...in 1998 with a similar steering pattern...all models moved hurricane Mitch northward and the hurricane indeed moved southward. However...dynamical models have improved a lot since then and the confidence is higher. The anticyclone in the Gulf is forecast to weaken as a large trough sweeps eastward across the United States...and the Atlantic subtropical ridge is also forecast to build. This should result in a slow west to northwest motion of Wilma during the next 2 to 3 days...toward the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter... Wilma will be approaching the westerlies and recurvature with an increase in forward speed is forecast. This is consistent with the guidance envelope which shows a hurricane moving either over the Yucatan Channel or western Cuba and then over the southern half of the Florida penisula between days 4 and 5. Remember...there is a large variability and large errors associated with the 4 and 5 day forecasts. So at this time stay tune and monitor closely the progress of this hurricane.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0900z 15.7n 80.0w 60 kt 12hr VT 18/1800z 15.8n 80.4w 70 kt 24hr VT 19/0600z 16.6n 81.4w 80 kt 36hr VT 19/1800z 17.3n 82.4w 90 kt 48hr VT 20/0600z 18.6n 84.0w 100 kt 72hr VT 21/0600z 21.1n 85.0w 100 kt 96hr VT 22/0600z 23.0n 84.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 23/0600z 26.5n 80.0w 80 kt...inland
With this latest shift, I hope it misses Fort Myers; my daughter's uncle lives there, sigh...
...Wilma begins to drift northwestward...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. All interests in western Cuba...the Yucatan Peninsula...the Florida Peninsula...and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Wilma during the next several days.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 245 miles ...400 km...south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 210 miles... 335 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua /Honduras border.
Wilma has been drifting northwestward over the past several hours...and a slow motion to the west-northwest or northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. However...steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is expected to become a hurricane today.
Reports from NOAA buoy 42057 indicate that tropical storm force winds associated with Wilma are expanding...and now extend outward up to 125 miles ...200 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...15.9 N... 80.2 W. Movement ...Drifting northwest. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure...980 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
I may put up a few shutters today.
All indications she's going to pick up speed before landfall and blitz across the state very quickly.
for the 3rd day in a row some of the models, including a very reliable one are showing this thing combining with another large storm coming down from Canada to create a HUGE Historic storm for the east coast and Ne US..not good news since they are water logged already
I'm a tad more concerned about landfall along the FL Gulf Coast...
yes as a true tropical system....but after it hits florida and starts to move out to see its energy is forecast to Phase(aka merge) with another huge storm in the NE which if the models are correct will create the "perfect storm2 ") with huuricane force winds and heavy rain for the NE US ,which on top of the water logged ground from this months record rainfall, will create a flooding like they have never seen before...in fact is so scary of a situation that when it first started showing up 3 days ago everyone(weather geeks) though it was a goofy model run and laughed at it..but it has now shown up for the 3rd day in a row and is supported by some other models now..
check out the long range ECMWF!!!!and how it phases the hurricane and a powerful system in the lakes and creates a superstorm off New England(been showing this 3 straight model runs)
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