Tropical Storm Wilma Live Thread

NOAA - NHC ^ | 17 October 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2005 hurricane season continues to alter the record books. Tropical Storm Wilma has formed in the Caribbean Sea.

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[NautiNurse]

From the 5PM discussion:

...by the very end of the forecast period Wilma is expected to be encountering westerly flow in the Gulf of Mexico that should force a fairly sharp right turn. How sharp a turn Wilma takes is obviously of interest to all along the eastern Gulf of Mexico...but it is far too early to identify specific areas at greatest risk.

[steveegg]

...by the very end of the forecast period Wilma is expected to be encountering westerly flow in the Gulf of Mexico that should force a fairly sharp right turn. How sharp a turn Wilma takes is obviously of interest to all along the eastern Gulf of Mexico...but it is far too early to identify specific areas at greatest risk.

As long as she wastes her energy on Cuba, I'm okay with that :-)

[steveegg]

The hunters have found the beginnings of an eyewall -

366 
URNT12 KNHC 172153 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/21:32:50Z
B. 15 deg 46 min N
  079 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1335 m
D. 40  kt
E. 050 deg 031 nm
F. 141 deg 045 kt
G. 053 deg 021 nm
H.        989  mb
I.  17 C/ 1522 m
J.  20 C/ 1526 m
K.  19 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. E05/18/8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2  nm
P. AF304 0324A WILMA        OB 16 CCA
MAX FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 20:30:30 Z
RAGGED EYE WALL

8 pm intermediate advisory due shortly.

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 9a
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2005

 
...Wilma nearly stationary but expected to turn westward...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located
near latitude 15.7 north... longitude 79.9 west or about 265
miles... 425 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 225
miles... 360 km... east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.

Wilma has become nearly stationary... but a motion toward the west
is expected to begin later tonight or on Tuesday.  Steering
currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during the next
24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr... with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours... and Wilma could become a hurricane on Tuesday.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110 km
from the center.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.20 inches.

 
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern
Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10
inches...are possible over Honduras.

 
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...15.7 N... 79.9 W. 
Movement...nearly stationary.  Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 989 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Knabb

[NautiNurse]

[yield 2 the right]

I will not want to think what is store for the "Alpha" named TS/'Cane!! At least one of those TD that failed to become a named storm has kept this "Wilma" from being "Alpha" if it gets to a major Cat 3 or higher and hits anyone at that level.....The reason is that I am told that Greek names CAN NOT BE RETIRED, only the year will be added next to the Greek name(i.e. Alpha2005)!!!

[steveegg]

If only that UKMET wasn't an outlier,....

This thing looks to be going right between Yucatan and Cuba, then slicing Florida right down the middle. Bad Wilma!

[cajungirl]

I got a feeling this thing is going to fizzle,,don't ask me why, just a feeling. But I also think the panhandle is gonna be the target.

[JamminJAY]

I'm hoping Accuweather is wrong.

Yikes!
Me too.

[Sam Cree]

Man, I am suddenly feeling ill again. This hurricane season is starting to remind me of the stock market.

[NautiNurse]

I got a feeling this thing is going to fizzle

A whole lot of us hope you are correct.

[blam]

Good Luck, NN.

[NautiNurse]

Good Luck, NN

Thanks. Not liking anything about the forecast this evening.

[Txsleuth]

bttt

Thanks, as always, for the thread, NN!

[nwctwx]

Larry Cosgrove Discussion on Wilma (I know some here follow him):
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=58684

Too busy to focus on the tropics myself... looks like a nasty storm possible for FL though, maybe on up the east coast as well. I'll try to check in from time to time.

[laz]

I hope she doesn't take the no phase track in Cosgrove's graphic. That'll put her right on top of me.

[NautiNurse]

Too busy to focus on the tropics myself...

Thanks, FRiend. :o(

[nuclady]

Thank you very much. Hope she doesn't go full phase - puts her right on top of me. Oh well, maybe she will lose her punch by then.

[mhking]

Tropical Storm Wilma Advisory Number 10
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2005

 
...Wilma steadily strengthening and beginning to drift westward...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was
located near latitude 15.8 north... longitude 80.2 west or about
250 miles... 405 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about
205 miles... 335 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.

 
Wilma is moving toward the west near 2 mph... 4 km/hr... and this
general motion is expected to continue overnight followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest on Tuesday.  However...
steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during
the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  65 mph... 100 km/hr... with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Wilma could become a hurricane on Tuesday.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110 km
from the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  987 mb...29.15 inches.

Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern
Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10
inches...are possible over Honduras.

 
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...15.8 N... 80.2 W.  Movement
toward...west near  2 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.

 
Forecaster Knabb

[NautiNurse]

Local Tampa Bay news tonight predicts the storm may make landfall south of us.